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Rishi Patel looks at the projected fantasy football production for the 2020 Tennessee Titans to identify potential values and busts.
The Tennessee Titans had a turbulent 2019 season in which Heisman QB Marcus Mariota was benched and former Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill took the helm. From there, it was a Cinderella story of sorts as the AFC South team fought its way back to relevance after sitting at 2-4 to conclude Week 6.
The team rallied to a 9-7 record behind Tannehill and guys like running back Derrick Henry en route to a surprising playoff run that nobody could see coming. The team was inspirational, taking out head coach Mike Vrabel’s “mentor” Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots in the wild card round and the vaunted Baltimore Ravens in the divisional round of the playoffs. They even had a lead on the Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship before eventually succumbing to their offensive firepower.
The future is bright in Tennessee as Ryan Tannehill (and his new contract) along with a young offensive core lead the charge in 2020. Let’s break down the team’s fantasy value:
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Quarterback
Marcus Mariota is no longer a Titan, having signed with the Raiders in the offseason. The Titans extended Tannehill on a 4-year, 118 million dollar deal, so the QB running the Titans for the foreseeable future is set.
The 31-year-old Tannehill somewhat revived his career last season after having a down year in 2018 with the Dolphins. Initially signed as a backup to Mariota, things changed in the blink of an eye as the former Miami passer began heading another team.
In 10 games started last season, Tannehill posted a 70.3 percent completion rate, a career-high, 2,742 pass yards, 22 pass touchdowns, six picks, 9.6 yards per attempt, and 228.5 pass yards per game. He posted a 117.5 quarterback rating, a career-high, and had a 12.6 percent poor throws per pass attempt rate.
In terms of rushing value, Tannehill has offered little upside as a fantasy QB. He only rushed for 185 yards last season, although it is worth noting he had four rushing touchdowns. Other than that, he has never rushed for more than 311 yards and two touchdowns in his entire seven-year career.
With a limited sample size, the QB managed to finished 21st among active fantasy signal-callers in 2019. In six seasons in Miami, he finished at 14 among active fantasy QBs in 2013 and 8th in 2014. Since 2014, he hasn’t finished higher than 17th. At this point, Tannehill is not an explosive fantasy QB and has seldom been that guy during his career. He can best be viewed as a QB starter in large redraft leagues (14+ teams) or a very serviceable backup overall.
Running Back
Standing at 6’3”, Derrick Henry is a bruising back who can muscle and stiff-arm his way to the end zone. The 26-year-old finished second among fantasy RBs last season and offers immense upside this season. He had his breakout season in 2019, notching 303 rush attempts, 1,540 rush yards, 16 rush touchdowns, 5.1 rush yards per attempt, and 102.7 rush yards per game. Those staggering numbers were all career-highs for the fourth-year back.
He also added 18 receptions, 206 receiving yards, and two receiving touchdowns. Due to his size, Henry also had 3.2 rush yards after contact per attempt along with 29 broken tackles. In fact, he had 968 rushing yards after contact, which showcases his power running.
Henry brings massive upside in regards to touchdown potential too. He had 83.3 percent of rushes inside the 5 on the team and scored seven touchdowns off that.
When considering the breakout season, him now entering his prime, the talent, and the already established role on the team, Derrick Henry is an elite fantasy option for 2020. He is easily a top-five RB and can be snatched with your first pick in redraft leagues if possible.
Wide Receiver
The Titans WRs are the hardest to figure out from a fantasy perspective. A.J. Brown is the clear-cut WR1 and the most reliable choice to draft from this unit. He had a strong rookie season last year, leading the team in receptions (52), targets (84/448, 18.75 %), receiving yards (1,051), yards per catch (20.2), and reception touchdowns (8).
His yards per reception was third-highest among NFL WRs, displaying his explosive potential. Brown will be 23 to start the 2020 season and is the best receiver to draft from this team. He finished a top-10 fantasy receiver last season, and he can be a great WR1 on redraft teams.
The rest of the depth chart is where it gets tricky. With Tajae Sharpe now on the Vikings, the WR2 and WR3 on the team would be Corey Davis and former Buc Adam Humphries.
Davis finished 2019 with 43 receptions, 69/448 targets (15.4%), 601 yards, 14 yards per catch, and only two receiving touchdowns. With the addition of A.J. Brown, the 25-year-old saw a drop in receptions, targets, receiving yards, and reception touchdowns from 2018 to 2019. The Western Michigan product should be considered the WR2 on the team, but his fantasy value has decreased heading into 2020. He should be considered nothing more than depth on your team.
Meanwhile, the 26-year-old Humphries saw his production dip in 2019 as well after posting career-highs in receptions, targets, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns in 2018 with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. In his one season with Tennessee so far, the Clemson product notched 37 receptions, 47/448 targets (10.5%), 374 yards, 10.1 yards per catch, and two touchdowns. Humphries will not likely be a top receiver on this team in 2020 considering the presence of A.J. Brown, Corey Davis, and TE Jonnu Smith. He is not worth drafting and should only be added during the season if he breaks out or roster depth is needed.
Tight End
With veteran tight end Delanie Walker aging and hampered by injuries, Jonnu Smith took over in 2019 and now enters 2020 as the top TE on the team. Smith led the TE unit with 44 of the team's 448 targets last season (9.8%). The 24-year-old also was the third-leading receiver on the team. In his third season with the team, the FIU product recorded a career-high 35 receptions and 439 receiving yards, along with 12.5 yards per catch and three touchdowns.
Now possessing a better rapport with QB Ryan Tannehill entering 2020, and with Walker no longer on the team, Smith is a strong breakout candidate in fantasy at the TE position after ranking 17th last season. He is best viewed as a second tight end or backup in redraft leagues for now until he proves he is a weekly fantasy starter who is reliable.
Backup Anthony Firkser finished with 24/448 targets (5.4%), 14 receptions, 204 receiving yards, 14.6 yards per catch, and one touchdown last season as well. At this point, his role is too small and inconsistent for him to merit any fantasy value.
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