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RotoBaller's top PGA player props, best bets, and matchup picks for the 2026 U.S. Open. Get commission-free odds and market edges with Novig golf picks.
Hello golf fans, it's great to be with you again here at Rotoballer! This week, the U.S. Open returns to Shinnecock Hills for the first time since 2018, when the historic Long Island venue produced one of the sternest tests professional golf has seen in the modern era. That week, players averaged 4.73 strokes over par per round, making it the most difficult course setup on the PGA Tour in more than a decade.
This week's picks will all be using the odds on the most unique and fastest-growing sports prediction sites -- Novig. If you're not familiar with the site, I'll explain how it works and provide some of my favorite wagers to place on Novig. There are lots of juicy numbers available!
As always, make sure you're following RotoBaller on X and download the RotoBaller app for all your season-long, DFS, and betting needs. Now, here are some of my favorite PGA bets and props for the 2026 Memorial Tournament.
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What is Novig?
Novig is one of the fastest-growing peer-to-peer sports prediction markets. On Novig, users trade directly with each other, without the "vig" typically associated with a sportsbook. The vig is the fee sportsbooks charge you to use their services. It's a hidden cost that can be found in the odds that are being offered on each side of a specific bet. When a book offers -110 odds on both sides of a bet, it is keeping close to 10% of every bettor's wager, regardless of whether you win or lose.
On Novig, users trade with each other on the outcomes of sporting events, similarly to the way that investors trade on the stock market. But instead of having to beat the books, you just have to win against other users -- there's no commission kept by the site.
Users can bet on most traditional sports markets, including moneyline bets, spreads, totals, tournament matchups, player props, parlays, and futures!
Novig operates with two virtual currencies. Novig coins can be wagered for fun and to test out strategies, while Novig cash can be wagered on all markets and then redeemed for real cash prizes.
Access to Novig is widespread; it's now accessible in 36 U.S. states.
How Does Novig Work?
Since users are not playing against the books, there is an opportunity to make more money per wager that you win, and users can usually find better values on bets (in terms of the prices being offered) than on traditional sportsbooks.
There are no oddsmakers; users dictate their own odds. You can either accept the odds that the market is offering or set your own odds.
If you set your own odds, another user has to accept them on the other side for the bet to be activated.
Users drive the market, not the sportsbook or oddsmakers!
PGA Tournament Matchup Picks
All odds are from Novig and were accurate/available as of 6/17/2026. Odds are subject to change.
Hideki Matsuyama (-110 at Novig) OVER Jordan Spieth
If there is a facet of the game that can be covered up by Shinnecock's demanding routing, it has historically been the driver. Off-the-tee splits accounted for just 9.3% of scoring variation here in 2018, a drastic departure from the 21.8% mark we saw at Oakmont last year, and champion Brooks Koepka famously hit just five drivers in his final round en route to his second U.S. Open title.
That should be good news for Hideki Matsuyama this week, as the Japanese No. 1 has already seen one trophy slip from his grasp this season due in part to a faulty driver. His traditional strengths, however, have been as advertised in 2026. Since the start of the year, Matsuyama sits at or above the 80th percentile in Strokes Gained from each of our key approach ranges this week (100-150, 150-200, and 200+ yards), and has gained an average of 0.68 strokes per round with his short game, the second-best mark of his career when combining chipping and putting.
Spieth, meanwhile, has endured a recent lull with his ball-striking following a promising early-season run. He's lost strokes on approach in four of his last six starts and most recently ranked 69th of 72 players with his iron play at Muirfield Village.
Over the course of the season, Hideki has also held the edge around the greens (+0.68 to +0.54 strokes gained per round), and although Augusta National is the site of his lone Major Championship victory, the U.S. Open has quietly been his most consistent Major in recent years. Since 2017, Matsuyama has recorded nine consecutive made cuts in this championship, including a runner-up finish in 2017 and top-six finishes in both 2022 and 2024.
Spieth, meanwhile, hasn't finished better than 19th at a U.S. Open since his victory at Chambers Bay 11 years ago. I make Matsuyama north of a -120 favorite head-to-head and would happily back the Japanese star at the current number.
Matt Fitzpatrick (+100 at Novig) OVER Xander Schauffele
Betting against Xander Schauffele in Major Championships is never a comfortable proposition, but when you're getting even money on one of the best all-around profiles in this field, I'm happy to take on the most consistent U.S. Open performer in recent memory.
Fitzpatrick's long been considered one of the game's premier short-game players, but his breakout in 2026 has been fueled largely by his progression from tee to green. Over the first five months of the season, Fitzpatrick is one of just two players in this field to rank inside the top 10 in Total Driving and SG: Approach and has rated out as a positive ball-striker in 11 of his 13 starts thus far this season.
The short game hasn't gone anywhere, either, as Fitzpatrick sits sixth in the season-long Around the Green Rankings and enters this week on a ten-event streak of gaining strokes chipping.
The Englishman has also held the head-to-head edge in 67% of their shared starts over the last 15 events, a notable feat considering Schauffele's reputation as one of the sport's most reliable performers in elite fields.
I give Fitzpatrick a legitimate edge in each of the three tee-to-green categories this week, and while Schauffele's Major Championship résumé understandably commands respect, I don't see enough separation in the underlying numbers to justify him being this clear of a favorite. At even money, I see value backing Fitzpatrick to continue his excellent run of form.
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PGA Finishing Position Props
All odds are from Novig and were accurate as of 6/17/2026. Odds are subject to change.
Wyndham Clark WINNER (+4900 at Novig)
Despite capturing this very title three years ago and entering this years iteration as one of the hottest commodities in the sport, I feel Wyndham Clark is going strangely undervalued in outright markets this week.
After a frustrating start to 2026 that produced just one top-30 finish in his first nine starts, Clark has found another gear since breaking through at TPC Craig Ranch. His final-round 60 in Dallas was one of the most impressive Sunday performances we've seen all year, overtaking a leaderboard that included two of this week's favorites in Scottie Scheffler and Si Woo Kim.
More importantly, he's backed it up.
Clark followed that victory with a solo-third finish at the Memorial Tournament, where he led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach (+8.96) and gained another 5.1 strokes around the greens. He then arrived in Canada and posted another strong result, gaining more than 8.5 strokes combined with his chipping and putting en route to an 11th-place finish.
While a disappointing Sunday prevented him from seriously contending for a second title in three starts, the bigger takeaway is that Clark's game appears to be rounding into form across the board. His iron play has sharpened considerably, the short game has returned as a weapon, and we already know he possesses the power and confidence required to thrive on demanding U.S. Open setups.
That combination should be particularly valuable at Shinnecock Hills, where approach play and short-game performance accounted for more than 56% of scoring variation during the 2018 U.S. Open. Clark has already proven he can win this championship when operating near his ceiling, and at nearly 50-1, I believe the market is undervaluing both his current form and his upside in Major Championship conditions.
