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Mike's Week 12 college football betting picks against the spread for Tuesday, November 11, Wednesday, November 12, Thursday, November 13, and Friday, November 14, 2025. Free CFB betting predictions, odds analysis, and ATS picks from RotoBaller.
It was carnage in the ACC, and in the bottom half of the top 25 as a whole. The fact that CFP rankings had five ACC teams included is significant. It means that many of us who wanted two Group of 5 teams to have a chance will have to wait until the 32-team playoff because you know the expansion to 16 teams will only be for major conference teams, right? That's more reason to oppose it!
The 58 games this weekend are the most since Week 1. Kentucky is slumming (kind of) with an undefeated Tennessee Tech team. Eight of those games take place before Saturday. Let's make some money on those.
We've got some good midweek DFS slates this time around to go with the betting. MACtion is in full swing, but there is only one game on Thursday this week. Lame!
CFB Betting Picks for Week 12
I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top 10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds for each game, average them across all Vegas casinos, and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
I think you should know who you're listening to. I've been doing this since 2014, and I have most of my record available for viewing here. This can help you determine which teams I usually pick correctly or incorrectly.
Kent State at Akron (-5.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I'm more than a little surprised that Akron is favored. Maybe I shouldn't be. Akron has won the last two games against Buffalo and UMass by a combined 68-26.
Pick: Akron -5.5
Ohio (-0.5) at Western Michigan
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
There is a whole lot of play in this line. Western Michigan is favored on ESPN, FanDuel, and Bovada. Caesars has this line at even. After we had a line close under one point last week, it looks like we'll have another. I'm not fooled. The MAC is Ohio's to lose.
Pick: Ohio -0.5
Buffalo at Central Michigan (-1.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This feels low. The Bulls' beating Bowling Green means little after getting smacked by Akron.
Pick: Central Michigan -1.5
Northern Illinois (-11.5) at Massachusetts
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
UMass is 2-7 against the spread. That trend continues.
Pick: Northern Illinois -11.5
Toledo (-3.5) at Miami (OH)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
After watching what Sieh Bangura did to Miami last week, I have to think that Chip Trayanum can do the same. I really don't like that hook though...
Pick: Toledo -3.5
Troy at Old Dominion (-10.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This is too many. Troy is 6-3 against the spread this year.
Pick: Troy +10.5
Clemson at (15) Louisville (-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
The surprising part about this line is that Clemson opened as a 6.5-point favorite. Even though Jeff Brohm said that Isaac Brown was unlikely to play, the line has had a massive 10-point swing.
It's also worth noting that Clemson has never lost at Louisville and is only allowing 15.5 points per game. The Louisville defense was not good against Cal last week, and the Clemson offense is better. This should have stayed with Clemson favored.
Pick: Clemson +3.5
Minnesota at (9) Oregon (-24.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This feels high. At least a half-point too high.
Pick: Minnesota +24.5
CFB Betting Picks - Last Week's Results
I promised transparency, and you will get it, warts and all. I don't like to be wrong, but I will admit when I am. Why listen to someone if they won't admit the good or the bad? I think I had a decent week, even though I didn't believe in my team. So it goes.
You can track my wins and losses on this sheet. I have everything updated from 2014-18 and 2023-present. I'm still looking for missing articles from 2019 and 2020 to get a running total of all of my picks. Winners against the spread will be in bold. My result will follow.
Massachusetts at Akron (-9.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Buffalo is the only team to not cover UMass...and they may still win the conference. Welcome to MACtion, my friends.
Miami (OH) at Ohio (-2.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Battle of the Bricks hit like a ton of them this year. Bangura and Parker Navarro go out on top.
Kent State at Ball State (-1.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Kent is playing much better, but I knew this line was off. Ball State is money in Muncie.
Northern Illinois at Toledo (-14.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Trayanum hits differently in the MAC. He could have been like Cam Skattebo at Arizona State if he had stayed on the field.
Georgia Southern at Appalachian State (-6.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
All of the research pointed to Georgia Southern. I should have bet more.
UTSA at South Florida (-14.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
South Florida QB Byrum Brown became the first FBS or NFL player in the last 30 years to have at least 200 passing yards,100 rushing yards & a 90 % completion percentage in a single game.
— Emily Van Buskirk (@Emilnem) November 9, 2025
Byrum Brown did whatever he wanted in this game. He's easily the best Group of 5 quarterback, and would likely be in the middle of the pack in any Power 4 conference.
Houston at Central Florida (-1.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
You can see signs that Scott Frost is turning Central Florida around again. They aren't there yet, but they are good enough to put scares into better teams.
Northwestern at (20) USC (-14.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
🤯 USC just pulled off one of the slickest trick plays college football has seen in years.
In their 38 to 17 win over Northwestern, No. 19 USC fooled everyone with a perfectly executed fake punt and they did it by swapping jersey numbers. Third string quarterback Sam Huard,… pic.twitter.com/cL4B2248vF
— Media 🇺🇸 (@MediaWasHere) November 8, 2025
You can have feelings about this, but the play was perfectly legal. When Sam Johnson came in to punt later in the game, a 15-yard penalty could have been assessed. USC exploited a loophole, and it says something that they felt it was necessary to do it against Northwestern.
This fake punt changed the whole game. It wasn't illegal, but it was a bit shady. Something like this was bound to happen since you can issue duplicate jersey numbers. It's about time we get some triple-digit numbers out there. Let's make this fun!
Tulane at (22) Memphis (-6.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
My feeling was right. Too bad I didn't bet like I believed it...
(2) Indiana (-14.5) at Penn State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I had a feeling Penn State would show up for this game. I just didn't think it would matter. It really mattered! It took Omar Cooper Jr., arguably making the best catch of the season, to keep Indiana's dream alive.
You probably guessed our Week 11 𝙋𝙡𝙖𝙮 𝙤𝙛 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙒𝙚𝙚𝙠.
Yep, it's Omar Cooper Jr.'s ridiculous toe-tap TD to keep No. 2 @IndianaFootball perfect 😳
📍 @OldTrapper pic.twitter.com/yKlB5BtZmX
— Big Ten Network (@BigTenNetwork) November 10, 2025
It isn't just about the catch itself. Cooper had his eyes down the whole time, making sure that he knew where his foot was going to land. Having the presence of mind to do that is incredible for any player, let alone a 20-year-old.
(5) Georgia (-9.5) at Mississippi State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This is the most complete game that Georgia has played all season, and they still only won by 20 after being up by 31. It does say something that Georgia came into StarkVegas and dominated after Texas and Tennessee were lucky to escape with overtime wins.
(7) BYU at (8) Texas Tech (-10.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Texas Tech left no doubt that the Big 12 title goes through Lubbock. They are also making a strong case for a first-round bye in the CFP with that convincing win.
SMU (-10.5) at Boston College: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This was the Red Bandanna game, and BC still got smoked...
Colorado at West Virginia (-6.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This was too close for comfort. Colorado looked respectable with Julian Lewis at quarterback. Scotty Fox Jr. was still the freshman QB to watch in this game.
James Madison (-13.5) at Marshall: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson did limit the turnovers, but James Madison still pulled away. This is the win that finally got the Dukes ranked. Of course, the epic ACC collapse helped the cause. The irony is that JMU needs Louisville to stay strong to justify the "good loss" aspect.
Southern Mississippi (-4.5) at Arkansas State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I know this game doesn't get much notoriety, but it was a fun quarterback battle between Braylon Braxton and Jaylen Raynor. That's what I came for! Those of you who followed my viewing guide got exactly what we expected!
Temple at Army (-6.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Anyone who ever played football at any level knows how utterly demoralizing this is. Welcome to Army football.
All 18 plays of our game-sealing drive to start your week. pic.twitter.com/DaXVPTCdDY
— Army Football (@ArmyWP_Football) November 10, 2025
Only Army can get the ball with 10 minutes left and 60 yards to go, and not only bleed the clock all the way out, but do it without getting the cover. Fantastic.
(1) Ohio State (-29.5) at Purdue: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Upon further review, it may be that Ohio State is just not a great running team, instead of padding Julian Sayin's stats. If that's the case, Ohio State is going to have trouble repeating.
Missouri State at Liberty (-7.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I should have followed the stats and trends. It pointed to Missouri State avoiding the cover. The outright win is just showing off. And yes, the Bears belong in a bowl game. Make it happen!
Leave it to the archaic rules of the NCAA to make the game worse. It's not enough that the conferences are doing it. 40-year-old rules that aren't properly described are doing the same.
Bowling Green at Eastern Michigan (-2.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The best part of the game was the field, unless you have some kind of vested interest in how former Michigan State quarterback Noah Kim is doing in the MAC. And...what in the world are these teams doing playing on Saturday? MACtion is for midweek in November!
UAB at Rice (-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Ryder Burton played well. The team around him did not.
Maryland at Rutgers (-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
🔥 240 rushing yards
🔥 41 carries
🔥 1 TDAntwan Raymond ran for the most rushing yards by a @RFootball player since Ray Rice had 280 in 2008 🤯 pic.twitter.com/Bf8aFFJNji
— Big Ten Football (@B1Gfootball) November 8, 2025
The 240 yards turned some heads, but what really caught the attention of NFL scouts was the 41 carries. That just doesn't happen anymore. Raymond can carry a team, as he proved last weekend.
Louisiana Tech (-5.5) at Delaware: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Delaware's comeback vs. Louisiana Tech
Sonny Cumbie....Welcome back to the @2StripesCPD hot seat rankings, pal pic.twitter.com/Sa17nUodg5
— Colton Denning (@Dubsco) November 9, 2025
That's what happens when a member of the opposing team rings Delaware's victory bell. Clay Thevenin rang Delaware's bell (literally) after a touchdown with just over three minutes left, giving the Bulldogs the lead. The college football gods punished the Bulldogs accordingly.
Florida International (-1.5) at Middle Tennessee State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Why can't FIU play like that on Vice Night? Do they really dislike their fans that much?
Jacksonville State (-1.5) at UTEP: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Easy money isn't supposed to be this close, but I'll take it. A win is a win.
Charlotte at East Carolina (-28.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
That's why I hate these lines. ECU dominated and won by only 26 points.
Tulsa at Florida Atlantic (-3.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I knew that I should have bet more on this.
(3) Texas A&M (-7.5) at (22) Missouri: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
The line never should have been this low with Missouri's backup quarterback making his first career start.
(9) Oregon (-6.5) at (20) Iowa: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
It's amusing how I can beat the weather drum in this game and use it to win a wager, but completely ignore it for another left-coast team in a Midwest sleet storm.
Syracuse at (18) Miami (FL) (-28.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I was right...the hook did it.
Duke (-9.5) at Connecticut: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I hope that you smashed the over as well.
Kansas at Arizona (-5.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This was the best game that the Kansas defense has played since the Fresno game.
Iowa State at TCU (-7.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
It's Iowa State's turn to play spoiler. I didn't expect an outright win, but I'll take it anyway.
Auburn at (16) Vanderbilt (-6.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Hugh Freeze was the problem. Big surprise there. I'm totally shocked.
Kennesaw State (-9.5) at New Mexico State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Kennesaw had issues with Logan Fife in the fourth quarter. Kennesaw had the cover until the final stanza.
Georgia State at Coastal Carolina (-7.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Once again, I'm drilling those one-pointers just like extra points.
(23) Washington (-10.5) at Wisconsin: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Whether or not this was a total disaster on all fronts for Washington. The Huskies should have been able to grab a big enough lead before the sleet hit. They lost to a team whose punter was the leading passer. How did Iowa not accomplish this first?
Stanford at North Carolina (-7.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I should know better than to believe in Carolina. They're not much better than they were before the buyout discussions.
Texas State (-2.5) at Louisiana: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Another extra point, right down Broadway.
Air Force at San Jose State (-5.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Walker Eget only had 334 passing yards and didn't throw a touchdown. No wonder the Spartans lost.
Wake Forest at (14) Virginia (-6.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I knew better. Wake's offense is a bad matchup for Virginia, and the Cavaliers weren't moving the ball even before Chandler Morris went down.
California at (15) Louisville (-18.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
If Isaac Brown misses more time, this team is in trouble. That said, Keyjuan Brown was almost as good. This one is on the defense for Louisville.
Florida State at Clemson (-1.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This was the performance the Clemson defense has been missing for much of the season.
LSU at (4) Alabama (-9.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This was a big performance by the Alabama defense. We knew LSU's defense would show up. We weren't sure about Alabama's.
Navy at (10) Notre Dame (-26.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Notre Dame defense has figured out how to stop Navy. It's the same game plan year to year. Only the personnel is different.
Florida (-3.5) at Kentucky: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Kentucky broke DJ Lagway. This was a total beatdown.
Nevada at Utah State (-9.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This was never a game. Utah State had 41 points at halftime and let off the gas.
Nebraska at UCLA (-0.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Emmett Johnson deserves more national respect. Matt Rhule said he’s accounted for 37% of Nebraska’s offense, the most of any player in the nation for their team. Jeremiyah Love is no. 2, accounting for 29% of Notre Dame’s offense.
Emmett Johnson should be up for national awards. pic.twitter.com/GwBNKWlMOQ
— Adam Carriker (@AdamCarriker94) November 11, 2025
This is Emmett Johnson's world. We all just live in it. It's been a while since a Nebraska player had over 100 rushing and receiving yards in the same game.
UNLV (-4.5) at Colorado State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I should have bet more on this. As it turns out, I needed to.
Sam Houston at Oregon State (-20.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This was such an embarrassment for Oregon State that interim coach Robb Akey was fired...
San Diego State (-6.5) at Hawaii: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
What an epic fail by the Aztecs. The national buzz was starting to mount, and they got blown out after everyone went to bed. Fitting, I guess.
College Football Betting Season Results
I had a good week before a slow start on Saturday. The late-night games ruined what could have been a decent week. I slipped one more under .500 by going 25-26 this week. I'm 275-287 on the season. Let's check the points.
The weekly totals follow the bet. Season totals are in parentheses.
1. 4-2 (40-29) = 11
2. 7-10 (88-114) = -52
3. 9-11 (95-87) = 24
4. 4-2 (39-43) = -16
5. 1-1 (18-14) = 20
I only lost two points this week. San Diego State hurt quite a bit. The biggest week since Week 1 happens this week. We're gaining some of this back! I'm 13 points down on the season, but definitely not out!
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