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Justin's 12-team College Football Playoff prediction ahead of Week 8 of the 2025 college football season. Projections for all 12 teams, including Ohio State and Miami.
Week 8 College Football Playoff Projections
Down goes Oregon.
With the Ducks losing to Indiana in Week 7, we have an open bye spot in the playoff projections. Guess what, though? That’s not the only team that drops from the top four in this week’s rankings. Two teams lose their projected byes, while two more move up into those spots.
Only one team drops all the way out of the top 12 this week. That team is Memphis, which is only out because of a game that the Tigers didn’t even play in.
Here’s what the CFP field looks like entering Week 8.
12. South Florida
Last Week: Not Ranked
After a couple of weeks highlighting other American Conference teams, we’ve circled back to South Florida.
The Bulls faced previously unbeaten North Texas on Friday night. It was a competitive first half, with the two sides going into halftime tied at 21. That was where the competitive aspect of the game ended, as the Bulls turned it on in the third quarter, outscoring the Mean Green 28-7 in that frame and going on to win 63-36. This looks like the American’s best team at the moment.
11. Oklahoma
Last Week: Fifth
Getting John Mateer back for the Red River Showdown was supposed to solidify Oklahoma as a playoff team. Instead, a clearly not 100 percent Mateer threw three interceptions as the Sooners lost to the Longhorns.
This is still a 5-1 team with plenty of upside, but Mateer’s health is a major concern. Will he play against South Carolina this week? Will he be healthy enough for the gauntlet that the Sooners face to end the season, with their final five games against ranked opponents?
10. Georgia Tech
Last Week: 11th
The undefeated Yellow Jackets won again this week, beating Virginia Tech 35-20. The defense has its flaws, but it’s pretty easy to imagine this team winning its next five games to go to 11-0, considering there are no more ranked conference games left.
That’s when things get interesting. The Yellow Jackets would clinch a spot in the ACC title game at that point, but end the season against Georgia in a non-conference game. Let’s say they lose that one, then lose to Miami in the ACC championship. Is 11-2 enough to get them into the playoffs? Will it depend on how the rest of the season goes for LSU, Tennessee, BYU, and a few other schools? Will it depend on how competitive those losses are?
9. Texas Tech
Last Week: 10th
Texas Tech keeps slowly moving up in the rankings, with the team taking advantage of former Big 12 rival Oklahoma’s loss to Texas in the Red River Showdown.
The Red Raiders are doing what they have to do, which is winning every game in dominant fashion. The most recent win was a 42-17 victory over Kansas. This is one of the nation’s best offenses and best defenses, with its 47.5 points scored per game ranking second in the FBS and its 12.2 allowed ranking seventh.
8. Oregon
Last Week: Second
It’s not just that the Ducks lost to Indiana this week. It’s how they lost. Of the team’s 20 points, only six were scored by the offense, with Dante Moore connecting with Malik Benson for a 44-yard first-quarter touchdown. Beyond that, it was special teams and defense.
Then, after a fourth-quarter pick-six of Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza, the Ducks had a chance to assert themselves. It was suddenly a tie game again, and the Ducks just needed to make a stop and get the ball back. Instead, they let the Hoosiers snatch the momentum away, allowing Indiana to score the final 10 points of the game.
7. Georgia
Last Week: Eighth
Georgia is probably a better team than Texas A&M and Ole Miss, but for now, we’re giving those undefeated teams the benefit of the doubt. The Bulldogs already have a loss to Alabama, plus three more games against ranked teams on the docket.
The first ranked game is this Saturday, as the team plays host to Ole Miss. The Rebels looked very vulnerable this past week, so Georgia should win that game, which would move the Bulldogs up at least one spot next week.
6. Texas A&M
Last Week: Seventh
The Aggies moved to 6-0 on Saturday with a 34-17 win over Florida, and the team is now ranked No. 4 in the AP poll. So why are the Aggies only sixth in these rankings?
Because we’re looking ahead. What’s happened so far matters, like A&M’s road win over Notre Dame, but what comes ahead has to be considered as well. For A&M, that means three more games against ranked teams, with all three being on the road. It’s hard to imagine the team makes it through that unscathed, and a Nov. 15 home meeting with South Florida is no gimme either.
5. Ole Miss
Last Week: Fourth
Yes, the Rebels remain undefeated, but the team sure didn’t look great against Washington State this week, trailing 14-10 late in the third quarter before quarterback Trinidad Chambliss scored a go-ahead rushing touchdown.
Washington State is not a good team. There’s no reason a playoff squad should have just barely eked past the Cougars. Ole Miss’s undefeated season has a chance to go up in flames against Georgia on Saturday, but the good news is that after that game, there’s only one ranked contest left on the schedule.
4. Alabama
Last Week: Sixth
There are two undefeated teams left in the SEC and neither is Alabama, so why is the Tide ahead of those other two? It’s simple: they look like the better team, with Ty Simpson playing like a Heisman contender.
It also helps that the Tide have three ranked wins in a row. It helps even more that all three remaining games against ranked opponents will take place in Tuscaloosa. Alabama has the best future outlook among the SEC’s top three teams, so that lands it with the final bye.
3. Indiana
Last Week: Ninth
Indiana makes a huge leap this week, though the Hoosiers probably should have been higher than ninth last week. Too much was being made of the team not looking great in its close win over Iowa and not enough about its blowout victory against Illinois.
We aren’t making that mistake again. The Hoosiers went on the road against then No. 3 Oregon and just pulled away late to win 30-20. Fernando Mendoza threw a pick-six in the fourth quarter to tie the game, but the Hoosiers buckled in and scored 10 unanswered to hand the Ducks their first loss.
2. Miami
Last Week: Third
With Oregon’s loss, Miami moves up into the No. 2 spot in the rankings after a bye this past week.
The Hurricanes are 5-0 on the season and should be able to coast from here, as they don’t have another ranked team left on the schedule. It’s usually a good thing when you’re undefeated in the second week of October and your three most difficult games are all behind you.
1. Ohio State
Last Week: First
The Buckeyes had their last big test of the regular season on Saturday as the team went on the road to face a ranked Illinois team. For the first time in the 2025 season, the Buckeyes allowed double-digit points.
Still, Ohio State came away with a 34-16 victory to move to 6-0 on the season. An 18-point road win over a ranked team is a very good win, especially when the Buckeyes were able to build a 20-0 first-half lead and just kind of coast from there.
First-Round CFP Matchups
- No. 12 South Florida at No. 5 Ole Miss
- No. 11 Oklahoma at No. 6 Texas A&M
- No. 10 Georgia Tech at No. 7 Georgia
- No. 9 Texas Tech at No. 8 Oregon
