RADIO
Adam Koffler's fantasy football risers, fallers, sleepers, and busts heading into Week 8 of 2024. He identifies players at RB, WR, TE with rising fantasy values.
Week 7 of the 2024 season is in the books. That means another week of cold, hard data to analyze. We’ll try not to overreact, but instead, use logic and reasoning as the foundation for our decision-making in the weeks ahead.
Each week, we’ll take a look back at the previous week to see if our risers and fallers are still rising or still falling. Heading into Week 7, our biggest risers were Tank Dell, Zay Flowers, J.K. Dobbins, and Demario Douglas. Our biggest fallers were James Conner, Trey Sermon, Sam LaPorta, and Khalil Shakir. Despite playing nearly every snap, LaPorta continues to be an afterthought in the Lions offense. Meanwhile, Dell went catchless as the Texans passing offense looked abysmal against the Packers. Expect him to bounce back in a big way in Week 8 vs. the Colts.
Now that we’ve recapped the previous week’s risers and fallers, let’s take a look at some of the biggest risers and fallers heading into Week 8.
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Week 8 Fantasy Football Risers
Joe Mixon, Houston Texans
Last week, we highlighted Tank Dell as a riser. This week, it’s his teammate Joe Mixon who finds himself as one of the biggest risers coming out of Week 7. He went from a 55% RB opportunity share in Week 6 to a massive 87.5% RB opportunity share in Week 7. His snap share also increased from 42% in his first game back from the ankle injury to 66% this past week.
Mixon has now played in three “full” games (Weeks 1, 6, and 7). In those three games, he’s averaging 26.8 PPR fantasy points. He’s not only proven to be a bell cow, but he’s averaging a career-best 5.21 yards per carry.
Joe Mixon has another touchdown!
📺: #HOUvsGB on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO8ZBqG pic.twitter.com/rfLFsQwFHC— NFL (@NFL) October 20, 2024
If you drafted him in the RB dead zone this season, congratulations. You should not be selling high, as Mixon is here to stay as one of the premier bell-cow running backs still left in the NFL today.
Kareem Hunt, Kansas City Chiefs
Hunt came out of the bye week with a 73% RB opportunity share on a season-high 64% snap share. The Chiefs had two weeks to possibly give another back more work coming out of the bye and decided it was best to run Hunt into the ground. That’s an incredible development for his fantasy value given Isiah Pacheco is out for the foreseeable future. His usage was among the best in Week 7:
Week 7 RB Usage Leaders (No MNF)
1. Tank Bigsby (27.2 expected HPPR)
2. Kareem Hunt (22.9)
3. Joe Mixon (22.3)
4. Bijan Robinson (20.6) ok ok ok
5. Najee Harris (17.7)
6. Breece Hall (17.1) ok ok ok
7. Saquon Barkley (16.1)— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) October 21, 2024
Since taking over as the lead back in Kansas City, Hunt has found the end zone three times on 11 red-zone carries. He also posted a season-high 53% route participation in Week 7. That’s a 20% increase from his first game with the Chiefs in Week 4.
Kareem Hunt adds another TD 💪
📺: #KCvsSF on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/xzeSCYKg3l— NFL (@NFL) October 20, 2024
So we’ve got a running back who is getting 100% of the red-zone carries and is running a route on 50% of Patrick Mahomes’ dropbacks. That’s an elite role that should continue at least until Pacheco returns later in the season.
George Pickens, Pittsburgh Steelers
Russell Wilson is apparently great for George Pickens:
Week 7 WR Usage Leaders (No MNF)
1. George Pickens (18.1 exp HPPR)
2. Cedric Tillman (15.6)
3. Romeo Doubs (14.4)
4. Xavier Worthy (13.5) (we're so close)
5. Drake London (12.9)
6. Calvin Ridley (12.6)
7. Keon Coleman (12.4)— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) October 21, 2024
Pickens posted a 33% target share in his first game with Wilson, who looked to the WR early and often in Week 7. Per Fantasy Points Data, he saw 40% of Pittsburgh’s first-read targets and had an air yards share of 70.6%. Those are some massive numbers.
With Justin Fields under center, Pickens averaged 12.5 expected PPR points per game. The opportunities will be there with Russ. Remember, Wilson was one of the most accurate deep-ball throwers in the game a season ago. Per PlayerProfiler, Courtland Sutton was fifth in catchable target rate in 2023 with a career-best 10 touchdowns. Now, it’s Pickens’ turn to feast with Russ.
As long as Wilson is giving Pickens chances like this one, he’s going to have an opportunity to put up some gaudy numbers every week.
ah yeah that's why you let George Pickens get away with a certain degree of nonsense pic.twitter.com/tenIStmhqJ
— Christian D'Andrea (@TrainIsland) October 21, 2024
David Njoku, Cleveland Browns
Njoku broke out last season with Joe Flacco under center. He’s about to do the same thing this season with Jameis Winston (or even Dorian Thompson-Robinson) at quarterback. Anybody but Deshaun Watson is good for Njoku, who saw 10 of his 14 targets after Watson tore his Achilles in Week 7.
With Watson last season, Njoku averaged just 38.3 yards on 5.8 targets per game. With Flacco and DTR, he averaged 65.2 yards on 8.8 targets per game. I wrote about tempering expectations on Njoku coming into the year with Watson under center. That all changes now.
It’s an unfortunate injury for Watson, but it’s good news for Njoku’s fantasy value. Not only will he benefit from more willing passers, but he no longer has to compete for targets with one of the best receivers in the game in Amari Cooper (who was just traded to the Bills). His primary competition is now Cedric Tillman and Jerry Jeudy. Don’t sell high on a top-3 tight end for the rest of the season.
David Njoku is going to be a league winner rest of season. pic.twitter.com/NeNzkgfN00
— Wyatt 🥃 (@WyattB_FF) October 20, 2024
Other Risers: Cedric Tillman, Jaylen Warren, Cade Otton, Javonte Williams, Jauan Jennings, Tyrone Tracy Jr., Ricky Pearsall
Week 8 Fantasy Football Fallers
Josh Downs, Indianapolis Colts
As long as the Colts continue to roll with Anthony Richardson, Downs will be unstartable in fantasy football. In two games with Richardson as the starter, Downs is averaging just 12.5 receiving yards on four targets per game. In those two games, Richardson attempted just 20 and 24 passes, respectively.
The streak continues: Josh Downs has never reached 6 fantasy points in a game Anthony Richardson has played in full.
— Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) October 20, 2024
Even if Downs is earning a massive 30% target share, that's still just 6.6 targets per game, and they're likely off-target throws. His catch rate with Richardson is just 50% compared to an 80% catch rate with Joe Flacco.
Top 2024 Offenses by Catchable Targets per Game
+ @FantasyPtsData1. Seahawks (31.2)
2. Colts in Flacco starts (31.0)
3. Cowboys (29.2)
...
31. Chargers (18.4)
32. Colts in AR15 starts (15.8)Josh Downs would be a league-winner with a full season of Flacco just fyi
— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) October 21, 2024
If you're a Downs manager, hold him and pray that Shane Steichen and the Colts make the switch back to Flacco. In the meantime, don't start him unless you have no other choice.
Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots
Stevenson (foot) was questionable heading into Week 7 but was ultimately able to play. However, he played just 50% of the snaps and totaled 25 yards on nine touches. His RB opportunity share was just 47.6% compared to an RB opportunity share of 74% in Week 5 before suffering the injury.
It's possible he was limited as a result of the injury, but the matchup against Jacksonville should have yielded better results for Stevenson. There's at least a chance this work split continues in the future with Antonio Gibson and JaMycal Hasty both capable runners, pass-catchers, and pass-protectors.
It's possible the Patriots were just being cautious with Stevenson and decided to limit his reps in Week 7. However, it won't get any easier for him in the coming weeks with matchups against the Jets, Titans, and Bears on the horizon.
Christian Watson, Green Bay Packers
After posting 68 yards and a touchdown on four targets in Week 6, Watson came back down to earth in Week 7. He caught just one pass for nine yards on two targets. Players have down games, no doubt, but what's worse for Watson's outlook here is that his route participation dropped from 71% in Week 6 to just 50% in Week 7. Dontayvion Wicks seems to have caught up to him in terms of playing time.
Dontayvion Wicks & Christian Watson split playing time in Week 7.
Wicks: 47% routes, 18% targets, 13.8 fantasy points
Watson: 50% routes, 6% targets, 1.5 fantasy pointsCan't start either BUT Wicks worth holding. Led team in targets per route (35%) third healthy game in a row.
— Dwain McFarland (@dwainmcfarland) October 20, 2024
As you can see, Wicks took full advantage of his opportunity last week. Watson, on the other hand, lost snaps and routes to his teammate. That's not great. The Packers receiver room is already very crowded with Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed, and Tucker Kraft heavily involved. If Watson continues to play just half of the snaps and run a route on half of the team's dropbacks, that's not good for his fantasy value.
This season, Watson has yet to catch more than three balls in a game and is averaging just 2.6 targets per game in five healthy games. He's best left on the waiver wire for somebody else to deal with.
Devin Singletary, New York Giants
Many wondered what the work split would be like between rookie Tyrone Tracy Jr. and Singletary upon the veteran's return. Well, we quickly learned what that split looks like in Week 7. Singletary got six total touches on just 21% of the snaps. Tracy only had nine touches, but played on 67% of the snaps and had a route participation rate of 62.5%.
That's a significant development considering his previous season-high was 48.8% without Singletary on the field in Week 6. Meanwhile, Singletary posted a season-low 15% route participation rate.
Given Tracy's success and the confidence the coaching staff now has in the rookie, it wouldn't be surprising to see Singletary remain in a part-time role going forward.
Other Fallers: Najee Harris, DeAndre Hopkins, Diontae Johnson (needs to get traded), Baker Mayfield
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