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Should I draft Breece Hall 1st overall in 2024 fantasy football? John's fantasy predictions and deep dive into Breece Hall finishing as the fantasy football RB1.
In fantasy football, running back is the most important position to hit on. In 2023, a staggering 58.9% of finalists' rosters had Christian McCaffrey, the RB1 in all formats in 2023. A top-tier RB has massive Value Over Replacement, i.e. how much more they score than a waiver wire pickup. In 2024, the top 16 players in Value Over Replacement are all running backs. The best player at the most important position provides so much extra value that he can carry teams to the fantasy football finals.
Breece Hall stormed into the NFL as a rookie in 2022 and despite not having 15+ touches until Week 4, Hall averaged 97.3 yards from scrimmage per game. He ripped off multiple explosive plays as a runner and receiver, showcasing his elite speed, vision, contact balance, tackle-breaking ability, elusiveness, burst, and other traits. Hall averaged 132 YFS/G over his last three games before he tore his ACL. He was on pace to easily finish top five at his position, with multiple week-winning performances.
Despite his injury, he returned in Week 1 of 2023 and almost immediately ripped off big plays, including an 83-yard explosion. He continued making huge plays and carrying the Jets offense on his back, finishing as the RB2 in PPR. It's a shame Aaron Rodgers' season ended four snaps after it started and the Jets' offensive line was decimated by injuries. It was a stellar effort during what should've been a down year. Here are all the reasons Hall can finish as the RB1 in 2024.
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He Has Blazing Speed
The importance of speed in the NFL cannot be overstated. Hall has the speed to outrun players of every position group in the NFL. In addition to hitting 21.5 MPH less than a year after tearing his ACL, Hall clocked an astonishing 21.87 MPH in 2022 on a 62-yard TD against the Broncos, the fourth-fastest speed by any ball-carrier in 2022.
Breece Hall 62 yard TD. pic.twitter.com/tFz6wFwkFB
— Main Team (@MainTeamSports2) October 23, 2022
This is elite, game-breaking speed. For reference, track star De'Von Achane's top speed last year was 21.93 MPH. "Nearly as fast as Achane" is not an exaggeration. This speed allows Hall to turn what should be short gains into massive plays. He can simply sprint past linebackers with ease and blow by defensive backs who are out of position or take the wrong angle of approach.
The ability to consistently hit home runs gives Hall the elite upside that few other RBs possess. A single long touchdown can provide game-winning upside each week.
BREECE HALL 83 YARDS!!! WOW pic.twitter.com/VGCK3r13B3
— JPAFootball (@jasrifootball) September 12, 2023
Were it not for the previous season's ACL tear, this 83-yard run against the Bills would almost undoubtedly have been a 96-yard touchdown. That's good for 15.6 fantasy points on its own. Players who can put up double-digit points on a single play with regularity are the most valuable fantasy assets you can have.
He Has Elite Vision And Moves
Hall has an uncanny ability to dissect defenses in real time and quickly make moves to make defenders whiff. He's able to see defenders and react quickly enough to make them miss completely. He has a full suite of moves, including possibly his best, the spin move. He executes his moves with devastating effectiveness.
Breece Hall peripheral vision spin move pic.twitter.com/hAxgGZ5qxV
— JetPack Galileo (@JetPackGalileo) November 11, 2023
Hall can find any crease in the defense and use them to get into the open field. He makes the most of every play and then creates more whenever possible. He's able to react to defenders in his face incredibly quickly and juke them out of their shoes.
10 rushes, 127 yards
1 receptions, 20 rec yardsMoving like THIS in his first NFL game back from ACL. Dead to rights at the 24, phenomenal cut, redirect, acceleration and power to get 7 yards from that spot.
Breece Hall is THAT DUDE 😤
Elite RB1 🔥⛽️ pic.twitter.com/f1r2188ET1
— Jeff Mueller, PT, DPT (@jmthrivept) September 12, 2023
His tackle-avoiding ability pops on the stat sheet. He averages forcing a missed tackle on nearly a third of the time he touches the ball. Hall doesn't always need to juke or spin though. His vision allows him to make moves early and set up defenders to fail. He can do this well before the defender has a chance to make a play. He makes cuts when defenders are still 10+ yards down the field to create the perfect angle to blow past them.
For anyone wondering if you take away Breece Hall's 72 yard TD he would only have averaged 5.7 yards per carry.
He’s back.
— MD_FANTASY_BETTING (@mike_daddino) October 9, 2023
He Has Rare Explosiveness For His Size
Hall can stop on a dime and re-accelerate with frightening quickness. Both of the previous two plays display fantastic acceleration. Crashing defenders at both the LB and DB levels of the field are often forced to take bad angles. Hall's acceleration allows him to charge straight ahead and blow past them or make a cut earlier in his run and beat them to the outside. This burst is crucial for hitting home runs.
Breece Hall 36 yd TD run
Jeremy Ruckert (at FB!) and Kenny Yeboah in motion lead the way
The final big block? Xavier Gipson. pic.twitter.com/bBiiMz1YyP
— Connor Rogers (@ConnorJRogers) December 26, 2023
Defenders are often comically out of position attempting to tackle Hall downfield. In addition, Hall is excellent at turning perimeter rushes into bigger gains when defenders are inside and up the field. He can take the outside angle and break off big runs if he gets away. His burst often turns what would be sure tackles into trip attempts. He's able to consistently gain extra yardage this way.
In 2022, Hall averaged an absurd 10.1% explosive play rate (plays that gained more than 15 yards). This fell to 6.0% in 2023, mostly due to his situation, but should absolutely rebound. His ability to score on checkdowns (like this play where he turns a two-yard pass into a 50-yard touchdown) is elite.
Breece Hall takes a simple two yard pass and makes it a 50 yard touchdown…
He is so special.
pic.twitter.com/4UGQ7aOe6O— JPAFootball (@jasrifootball) October 29, 2023
He Has Bellcow Size and Strength
Measuring 5-foot-11 and weighing 216 pounds, Hall has the size and weight to handle a three-down workload in the NFL. He can power through body tackles, and remain upright with defenders grabbing his legs and muscle out of their grasp while maintaining his balance.
Breece Hall since 2020:
🌪 1,370 yards BEFORE contact (1st among P5 RBs)
🌪 1,648 yards AFTER contact (1st)pic.twitter.com/aarhyy8MTi— PFF College (@PFF_College) March 27, 2022
In 2022, he forced 0.30 Missed Tackles per touch, tied for sixth in the league among RBs (min. 75 touches). In 2023, Hall improved this to a ridiculous 0.31 MTF/touch, third among RBs in the league (min. 200 touches). Even more impressively, he led the entire league in Yards After Contact per touch with 3.69 in 2022 (min. 75 touches) and was third in 2023 (min. 200 touches) with 3.63. Hall can carry defenders down the field if he needs to.
Breece Hall with a 79-yard reception in the Jets-Dolphins game: pic.twitter.com/vTm19mK0lP
— CycloneFanatic.com (@cyclonefanatic) October 9, 2022
He Has Proven NFL Production
Aside from being the RB2 in PPR in 2023, Hall put up 463 yards on 80 carries, at 5.8 YPC, and four TDs, with 19 catches for 218 yards and one TD. Hall didn't receive 15+ touches until Week 4, but Hall had 93 rushing and 39 receiving yards per game from Week 4 on (excluding the ACL tear game). That would have put him on pace for 2,244 yards over 17 games. Those are lofty numbers, but Hall proved he's capable of producing a 2,000-yard season on a competent offense.
In 2023, Hall put up 1,583 total yards and nine TDs. His terrible supporting cast and previous injury certainly hampered those numbers, yet he still put up huge games and averaged a respectable 4.5 YPC and 7.8 YPR. It takes elite talent to overcome the worst situations in football. In the worst-case scenarios for the Jets offense, such as a rash of OL injuries or Rodgers missing time, Hall becomes the primary target, putting up huge numbers in PPR off receptions. In 2023, he led the league among RBs in targets, with 90.
He Has Elite Untapped Receiving Upside
Hall showed the skills to be an impact player when lining up at WR, but never got the opportunity to do that with Zach Wilson. With Aaron Rodgers at the helm, Hall could make plays out wide with Braelon Allen in the backfield. Given the Jets' lack of depth at WR, this is a distinct possibility. This play against the Dolphins is likely a 75-yard TD with Rodgers at QB.
Breece Hall aligns out wide and BURNS Duke Riley on a go route, but he isn't targeted
He's had too many great routes like this where he doesn't get targeted. They're wasting his potential as a receiver. He should basically be the WR2. pic.twitter.com/xvwdBxgB4y
— Michael Nania (@Michael_Nania) December 18, 2023
Rodgers has looked Hall's way multiple times in the red zone during training camp, and it's reasonable to expect that Rodgers will utilize Hall's receiving ability for "free yards" on checkdowns, down the field, and in the red zone. If Hall is utilized properly - and it's safe to say the future Hall of Famer Rodgers will, considering the only other options are Garrett Wilson and post-ACL tear Mike Williams - Hall is likely to add yet another dimension of scoring to his arsenal.
Among all RBs, Hall ranked second in Yards Per Route Run (2.18) in 2022 (min. 75 touches) and second again (1.99) in 2023 (min. 200 touches). Hall is an elite receiving RB, leading the league in receiving yards among RBs in 2023 and ranking in the top five in fantasy points per route run (minimum 25/50 targets) in 2022/2023. This efficiency proves that even with a high volume of targets, Hall can consistently produce both yards and fantasy points through the air.
He Has A Better Supporting Cast Than Ever
Hall is the unquestioned RB1 on a team that now has a healthy Aaron Rodgers and made massive strides in their offensive line. The Jets are fully committed to overhauling the OL, signing John Simpson from the Ravens, elite run blocker Morgan Moses, future Hall of Famer Tyron Smith, and investing a 1st-round pick in Olumuyiwa Fashanu.
Additionally, Alijah Vera-Tucker, a fantastic run blocker and the cornerstone of the OL in 2023, will return, and Joe Tippmann, the sixth-ranked run blocker by PFF in his rookie season, is primed to make a leap. PFF now ranks the Jets OL fifth in the league, and unlike in 2023, they now have the depth to absorb injuries.
Hall is primed to receive a high workload, and his efficiency (a ridiculous 6.88 YFS per touch in 2022) in okay-to-terrible situations in 2022-2023 (Zach Wilson at QB, decent to terrible offensive line) shows that Hall earns all his touches and could produce even more this year.
He Can Take Over Games
Hall is one of the rare RBs that can completely take over games. He's done so numerous times in his career. In 2022, he ripped off 197 total yards and a touchdown against the Dolphins. Hall followed that up with 121 yards and a TD against the Packers and 72 yards on only four carries against the Broncos before being injured, including the 62-yard explosive TD you saw earlier.
In 2023, Hall demolished the Broncos with 194 total yards and a TD, and despite having a rough stretch of games playing behind arguably the worst OL and QB in the league, gashed the Texans for 126 yards and a TD before putting up 191 YDS and two TDs, 126 YDS and a TD, and 190 YDS and a TD in his final three games. Not bad for an RB drafted in the fifth round in fantasy drafts.
Even without a decent supporting cast, Hall is a threat to dominate in any game he faces. He's a threat to gain 150+ yards with multiple scores any day he steps on the field. Hall displays elite production both as a receiver and runner and can gash defenses on both fronts in any game. A running back that can realistically score from anywhere on the field is elite for fantasy football.
Simply put, Breece Hall is primed for an RB1 overall season. Pick him up early in your fantasy drafts and don't be afraid to use the No. 1 overall pick if you have it.
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