RADIO
While we are not quite at the All-Star Break just yet, we have hit the actual middle of the NBA schedule as most teams have played at least half of their regular season games. That means, if anything, that we are beyond halfway through the Fantasy Basketball schedule as we are in Week 14 and most leagues wrap up around Week 21 with playoffs.
While the season is far from being over, we now have quite a large sample size of stats from players to analyze. One pretty cool thing that Yahoo! does with their leagues is that they generate a list of "MVPs" - i.e. players who appear the most often on the top 500 public league teams. Chances are that the more of these players you have on your team, the better your season is likely going.
Some of the names will be fairly obvious, but others might surprise you. In this piece, my goal is to reflect on what has gone right for these players to make the list AND discuss whether or not their first-half production is sustainable or whether they could be sell-high candidates before your leagues' trade deadlines. These percentages come straight from Yahoo and are for H2H leagues - though you are going to see a lot of the same names if you check the Roto MVP list, too.
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The Super Stars
Anthony Davis, PF/C - 19.8%
My high school football coach once said, "Your greatest ability is your AVAIL-ABILITY," which simply was meant to remind us to stay healthy and push through minor injuries. You can't impact the game if you're not on the field/court/etc...
AD has been healthy this year, missing only two of the Lakers' first 45 games. His production has been stellar across the board as he's matched pretty much exactly what he did last season with some modest gains in assists (+1.1), blocks (+0.4), and FT% (+0.021%).
The first-place team in a very competitive league that I am in just dealt AD for several top-30 studs as I think he was looking to minimize his injury risks down the stretch. If you do decide to deal him, make sure you are getting a haul in return because AD has been fantastic this season in 9-cat with absolutely no weakness to his game.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, PG/SG - 19.4%
SGA takes the top spot in the Roto MVP rankings, owned by 23% of the top teams. The only league I have him rostered in is a Roto league that I joined with Josh Lloyd of Basketball Monster and guess what? I am in second place there in an incredibly competitive league with other analysts.
Shai in just 3 quarters:
32 PTS
6 REB
10 AST
2-2 3PLeading the league in 30-point games. https://t.co/H2HY995s1t
— StatMuse (@statmuse) January 25, 2024
SGA has been able to replicate his scoring from last season (31 points per game) while taking a major leap in FG% (+.035%). His assists are up (+0.9) and steals (+0.7) while his turnovers are down (-0.7). He's been incredibly consistent all season and shows no signs of slowing down. The only thing you miss out on with SGA is threes, which doesn't bother me a bit when the trade-off is 56% shooting on 20 FGA per game.
Kawhi Leonard, SG/SF/PF - 16.2%
Paul George, SG/SF/PF - 15.2%
We can talk about both the Clippers' veterans here at the same time. I was higher on George than Kawhi this preseason, based on just how many games Kawhi has missed over the last several seasons. George has missed his fair share, too, but was going a bit later in drafts where the risk didn't quite bother me as much.
If you took a gamble on Kawhi, you are winning right now as he's missed only four games so far this year and he's returning first-round value. George has missed only two games this year and is returning second-round value. Both were major draft-day bargains and have been able to withstand the addition of James Harden which was looked dicey for his first few games in Los Angeles.
Sell high if you'd like, but I am not sure you're going to get the type of return that you're looking for from other managers as these are the same people who didn't draft either guy because of their injury risks.
Nikola Jokic, C - 13.8
Jokic has been passed up by SGA and Embiid (for now) in the 9-cat rankings but he's giving teams exactly what they expected when taking him as a "safe" number one overall pick.
Pleasantly Surprising
Grayson Allen, SG/SF - 19.2%
The former Duke standout and sharpshooter has finally broken out in his sixth NBA season. Phoenix is his fourth team in six years, but he has perhaps finally found a home as the perfect compliment to the big three of Durant, Beal, and Booker.
Allen is setting career highs in points, rebounds, blocks, and FG% and playing the most minutes (33.4) nightly of his career as well. Injuries to both Beal and Booker opened up a lot of playing time earlier in the season, but Allen is still getting the minutes now that the Suns are fully healthy and he's producing some incredibly efficient stats.
#fantasybasketball 9-cat NOTABLE rankings last month!
8. Jarrett Allen
16. Jalen Williams
21. JJJ
23. Tobias Harris
28. Grayson Allen
32. Isaiah Hartenstein
53. Larry Nance Jr
74. Al Horford
80. Sam MerrillOkay, let's yell about it!
— Dan Besbris (@DanBesbris) January 24, 2024
Allen is shooting an incredible 49% from downtown this season - a number that's not likely to last the rest of the season. But even if that drops to 44-45%, that's still pretty incredible on 5.7 attempts per game. Allen is just outside the top 50 in 9-cat right now on the strength of those incredible shooting percentages (90% from the free throw line, too). I would keep riding this solid production as his value is tied to his efficiency and not volume.
Brook Lopez, C - 18.8%
How can a guy averaging only 12 points and 5 rebounds be a top-30 fantasy asset? Well, when you average nearly three blocks per game (the scarcest fantasy stat out there) while putting up solid shooting percentages and low turnovers, you can do it! Lopez is doing what he did last year but with more blocks (+0.4) and only a slight dip in FG% (-0.041%). His role in Milwaukee is safe as Bobby Portis continues to be only a platoon partner who is not a threat to Lopez's playing time.
Lauri Markkanen, SF/PF - 17.8%
Lauri has followed up his breakout campaign in Utah with...even more awesomeness. It's clear that last year was no fluke and that Markkanen is a top-20 player going forward. His numbers are nearly identical across the board from last season, even though Utah brought in John Collins and has gone to a deeper rotation this season. Whether or not his future lies in Utah or elsewhere, he should be good to go for elite production for the rest of this season.
Derrick White, PG/SG - 16.8%
I was very fortunate to draft White onto several of my H2H teams. I made getting him in the later middle rounds a priority as I have always valued his FG% and defensive stats that you don't usually get from other NBA guards. The arrival of Jrue Holiday hasn't hurt White's production at all, as he's having the best statistical season of his career.
Derrick White is even better than the hype!pic.twitter.com/6vGq2x7BXV
— Honest☘️Larry (@HonestLarry1) January 20, 2024
He's sitting at 29 in BB Monster's 9-cat rankings and while he might not finish quite that high, I am still betting on a top-40 finish for him as he should continue to log heavy minutes for the Celtics down the stretch. If you have White on your roster, enjoy the production and don't even think about trading him as most other managers won't value him properly.
Tobias Harris, SF/PF - 16.8%
Tobias was viewed as a "safe" pick in the later rounds as his game has always been fantasy-friendly, even when his overall scoring dipped in a big way during the Harden experiment in Philly. But with Harden gone, Tobias is thriving once again and has returned to his 2021 form with even better FG% (51%) and FT% (90%). His ADP was down around 85-90 yet he's returning top-50 value with no reason why he can't keep that production going.
Terry Rozier, PG/SG - 14.8%
Here is our first RED ALERT of the group. Rozier was just dealt from Charlotte to Miami, which is going to impact his fantasy production in a potentially big (and bad) way. Rozier's season-long stats have been buffed up due to the extended absences of LaMelo Ball and Gordon Hayward in Charlotte. Scary Terry has been a one-man wrecking machine on a rebuilding team with nothing to play for. Now he heads to Miami, a team that plays at much slower pace and has many other mouths (Butler, Adebayo, Herro) to feed on offense, too.
Rozier is sitting at 39 on the player rater right now, but I think we see a significant dip in his scoring and assists with Miami. At least he's no longer a shutdown candidate on a bad team, but don't expect him to keep scoring 22 a night in Miami. Expectations should be tempered.
Jalen Williams, SG/SF/PF - 14.8%
I was trying to draft Jalen Williams on every team this season, but the only problem was that so was everyone else. I did manage to get him on a few rosters and after a somewhat slow start, he's met or even exceeded expectations in his second year in OKC. It's been Josh Giddey who has been the odd man out for the Thunder this year, with SGA, Williams, and Holmgren all putting together phenomenal fantasy campaigns.
Jarrett Allen, C - 13.0%
I was higher on Mobley than Allen coming into this year, but it's been Allen who has been posting monster numbers of late because of the long-term injury to Mobley. He's reeled off 13 straight double-doubles while increasing his assist output by 1.3 to a solid three dimes per game. His numbers will surely take a small hit when Mobley is back, but that won't be for some time.
Jarrett Allen's growth this season has been awesome
I don't think anyone foresaw his development as a passer/shooter pic.twitter.com/3VXJ3BWlB4
— Tony Pesta (@Tony_Pesta) January 19, 2024
Chet Holmgren, PF/C - 12.6%
I wasn't the only fantasy analyst who was bullish on Holmgren and if you play in a competitive league, you probably had to reach for him in drafts to snag the talented big man. But it turns out that "reaching" in the third or early fourth round wasn't a reach at all as he's turning in a top-20 fantasy season right now on the strength of some incredibly well-rounded numbers. The 2.6 blocks really stand out and have really helped him ranking, but he's producing value across the board in every category except steals. In a universe where Wemby doesn't exist, Chet would be a runaway rookie of the year.
Late-Round Hits and Waiver Wire Heroes
Isaiah Hartenstein, C - 20.8%
He's a little banged up right now, but the most rostered MVP this season has been Knicks' center Isaiah Hartenstein. When Mitchell Robinson went down for the season, Coach Thibs had no choice but to turn to I-Hart as their primary center going forward. He tried Jericho Sims there as the starter for a bit, but Sims eventually got hurt and Hartenstein's strong play reinforced that he really should playing 30+ minutes a night.
Isaiah Hartenstein over his last 17 games for the Knicks 👀#NewYorkForever pic.twitter.com/rRYLrwfxbv
— Knicks Nation (@KnicksNationCP) January 24, 2024
He's always been a great backup big man with excellent per-minute stats, but this year we are finally getting to see what Hartenstein can do as a starter and the answer is "a little bit of everything and a whole lot of rebounding."
Collin Sexton, PG/SG - 15.8%
The former Cavs guard is enjoying a breakout in Utah and posting some extremely efficient numbers for a guard. He's scoring at a career-high rate (17.5 points/game) while doing so on 49% shooting from the field and 88.5% from the line. He still doesn't offer much in terms of steals, but he has upped his assists (+1.2) while continuing to be a low-turnover (1.8) player. What Utah does, if anything, at the trade deadline with some of its assets will be interesting to see.
Daniel Gafford, PF/C - 15.0%
The Gafford truthers out there are finally vindicated as the Washington big-man has cracked the top 40 this year. He's been able to stay healthy for the most part and is finally getting enough minutes (26 per game) to be able to post some solid rebounding numbers and defensive stats. His 2.1 blocks per game is eighth in the NBA and we all know how scarce blocks are as a statistic.
Mike Conley, PG - 15.0%
Conley's best days are far behind him, but he's fit in quite nicely in Minnesota alongside Anthony Edwards and he's doing exactly what he has done throughout his career in terms of fantasy production. Even in reduced minutes, Conley is still averaging 2.3 threes, 1.0 steals, and 6.4 assists on solid percentages and a measly 1.1 turnovers per game.
Miles Bridges, SF/PF - 14.2%
Bridges was a guy taken very late in drafts, not because of his ability, but because of the controversy surrounding him off the court. During draft season, we didn't know what his legal status was going to be and I'll admit I didn't even consider him out of my own disgust for his alleged actions.
But he's turning in an excellent fantasy season, with some top-50 numbers. He's picked up right where he left off in 2021 in terms of his production. The only question is will he (and LaMelo) a shutdown candidate late in the year as the Hornets are heading nowhere fast?
Jalen Johnson, SF/PF - 13.6%
Johnson is the front runner for waiver wire addition of the season in shallow leagues. If you're in a deeper league, he was probably taken pretty late. I was happy to snag him in a few leagues this year as his development into an elite NBA player and solid fantasy asset has been fun to watch.
Jalen Johnson is a real good ball player pic.twitter.com/IMxQZ67UbP
— Jackson Frank (@jackfrank_jjf) January 22, 2024
An injury derailed him for nearly a month of the season, but he's come back strong and is putting up solid numbers across the board despite the Hawks losing more than they're winning. He has a bright future in the league and will no doubt be a sexy pick next season as he has all the tools we are looking for in 9-cat leagues.
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