RADIO
For the select people who read the introduction to my articles, I will begin by apologizing. A severe case of COVID has limited my loquaciousness this week, meaning the one guy who prints off my articles and posts them in his work locker with hearts drawn around them will be disappointed. To you, Carl, I apologize in advance. However, I promise my fantasy analysis will be better than my word-smithing this week.
That addressed, this is a good opportunity to remind people about the impact that fantasy can have on the real world. Many of you know of Scott Fish and his now-famous Scott Fish Bowl tournament. It’s an event most analysts and many fans look forward to every year, and it’s an event that leaves many of us chewing our nails each week in hopes we will move on to the next round. However, the Fish Bowl is about more than just fantasy.
While I do not know Scott personally, I take solace in knowing people like him exist. He dedicates his life to helping kids, the fantasy community, and preaching positivity. His work with Fantasycares.org is important, and I encourage you to donate to it. Just as important as his fundraising is Scott’s attitude. Fish helps promote a better world, both online and in person. Few people do that anymore, and he should be commended for helping quash negativity in fantasy.
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Casual IDP Streamers and Fades
Stream: Rashan Gary, DL/LB, Green Bay Packers
Who plays the Giants this week? That is the natural question for IDP managers to ask when looking for DLs to stream. This week, it's Gary who gets that premium matchup. The Notre Dame alum is ninth in Pass Rush Win Rate amongst DLs with 200 or more snaps and 24th in pressures. He should be able to take advantage of this situation.
Stream: Ivan Pace Jr., LB, Minnesota Vikings
Ivan Pace Jr. has collected nine tackles and 100% of the defensive snaps in each of the two games Jordan Hicks has been on IR. According to PFF, he is also Minnesota's highest-graded pass rusher, leading the front seven in Pass Rush Win Rate. Pace should not be the 57th most-started LB in fantasy this week, but he is.
Ivan Pace Jr.'s sack in this game was absurd. He jumps around the RB, who doesn't even get a hand on him, and is able to get back and wrap around Fields' waist to bring him down. pic.twitter.com/HCbgPIHbfS
— Matt Fries (@FriesFootball) November 30, 2023
Fade: Chris Jones, DL, Kansas City Chiefs
The Bills continue to surrender the fewest sacks per game in the NFL, and their blockers surrender just 11 pressures per. Starters on their interior are responsible for just three sacks all year. Meanwhile, Jones has four or more quarterback pressures in just one of his past five contests.
Fade: Pete Werner, LB, New Orleans Saints
Werner is struggling with injury, so it’s unclear if he will play this week. If he does, the Panthers and their pass-heavy offense are a poor matchup for his skill set. Werner derives 69% of his fantasy points in run support, while the Panthers average just the 24th-most rush attempts per game. An injured Werner should see his snaps and opportunities capped.
Premium/Deep League Streamers and Fades
Stream: Corey Ballentine, DB, Green Bay Packers
Ballentine's playing time has spiked since the Packers traded Rasul Douglas. He has notched 100% of Green Bay's defensive snaps in their past four games, leading to multiple deflections and 18 solo tackles in that stretch. Now he gets the Giants, who are 12th in Turnover Worthy Play rate with Tommy Devito under center.
Stream: Will Anderson Jr. & Jonathan Greenard, DL/LBs, Houston Texans
The second overall pick in this year's NFL Draft and Greenard are both rostered in fewer leagues than you would expect, with the rookie now the 49th-most rostered DL in fantasy and the veteran the 61st-most rostered. They both now face a Jets offense that ranks fourth-worst in pass-blocking success rate and third-worst in sacks allowed.
Anderson's metrics are trending up, with the rookie notching his two best pass rush performances in the past three weeks. The Alabama product has faced five bottom-10 pass-blocking units this season, totaling 32 pressures and four sacks in those games. He has shown he can take advantage of positive matchups while offering tackle volume for cushion. He’s starting in just 2.8% of leagues, which is low.
Will Anderson Jr. countering off speed to power
Gets hand placement on McGlinchey’s outside arm & pushes it by while trapping the inside arm at pit of the elbow, keeping it from resetting@will_anderson28 affects the blocker’s balance & swims off for the sack! #PassRush pic.twitter.com/01QAYjd1cS
— DLineVids (@dlinevids1) December 5, 2023
Greenard isn't showing Anderson's consistency or upward trend, but that's to be expected since Anderson was an elite defensive prospect while Greenard is a bit of a nomad. He has totaled 20 quarterback pressures and six sacks in those five positive fantasy matchups, though.
Fade: DeShon Elliott, DB, Miami Dolphins
Elliott is the 28th most-started DB in fantasy going into Week 14 and the 34th most-rostered. On the year, he ranks just 48th in my Standard IDP Scoring. Worse, he is averaging just 3.25 fantasy points per game in his past six contests. 158 DBs are averaging more than that on the season.
To make matters worse, the Titans average the second-fewest offensive plays per game. Only Denver runs fewer plays than Tennessee’s offense. That’s troubling for an inconsistent player with a low floor like Elliott.
Fade: Boye Mafe, DL, Seattle Seahawks
Mafe spends 35% of his time lined up over the left tackle, which puts him on Trent Williams more than you’d like. The upside is that Mafe plays 60% of his plays lined up over San Francisco’s right edge, where Colton McKivitz is a serviceable rotation tackle who is being asked to play starter’s minutes. However, McKivitz is performing better than expected, surrendering just six sacks on the season.
The 49ers remain the NFL's lowest-volume pass offense and surrender the sixth-fewest sacks per game. These facts, and Trent Williams's impressive zero sacks allowed all year, are why Mafe totaled just two fantasy points against San Francisco in Week 11. While Mafe’s upside on the right edge is worth DL3 consideration, his opportunities should be limited.
Defenders Worth Adding
Derek Stingley Jr., CB, Houston Texans
My DB Riser of the week, Stingley, is available in 98.7% of IDP leagues. As I mentioned in my rankings, he has a positive matchup against the Jets this week, and he's collected four turnovers in his past three games. This guy should be rostered in more leagues.
Samson Ebukam, DL, Indianapolis Colts
Ebukam is available in 98.2% of IDP leagues; however, he is the 12th-highest-scoring edge rusher in my Standard IDP format. The former 49er has at least one sack in half of his games, and he has two premium matchups in the fantasy playoffs.
Trenton Simpson, LB, Baltimore Ravens
Simpson is only worth a long-term speculative addition in deep dynasty leagues. He was the third-highest-graded linebacker in this rookie class, and an elite defense drafted him.
There is no room for Simpson to make an impact this year, with Roquan Smith and Patrick Queen playing tremendous football. However, Queen is a free agent this year, and Simpson could be the natural replacement if Baltimore cannot afford to bring Queen back.
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