RADIO
We made it! Week 1 is now officially in the books. We have a lot of good information we can use to help make decisions as we head into Week 2 and beyond.
In this weekly column, we'll be looking at fantasy football players whose arrows may be pointing up and players whose arrows may be pointing down based on the previous week's games. We'll try not to overreact, but instead use relevant data to make informed decisions about certain players.
Here are the key risers and fallers coming out of Week 1 of the 2023 NFL season.
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Week 2 Fantasy Football Risers
Michael Pittman Jr., Indianapolis Colts
I'll admit it, I was fading Pittman this season with rookie Anthony Richardson under center. That appears to be a big mistake after Week 1. Pittman was clearly the number one target and Richardson made it a priority to get him the ball.
He ended the game with eight catches for 97 yards and a score on 11 targets (28.2% target share). Over the last two seasons, Pittman's target share has been just north of 25%. So for that number to be at 28.2% in Richardson's first career NFL game is very promising.
The Colts also played with pace under new head coach Shane Steichen. Check this out:
This will lead to a ton of opportunities for Pittman as the season goes along. Even if he settles at a 25% target share, the added opportunities should give him a higher ceiling than he had in 2022 when he finished as the WR22. The Colts also gave up 31 points in Week 1. Sure, it was to a very good Jaguars team, but a subpar defense that gives up points also means more pass attempts for Indianapolis.
Pittman has the makings of a top-15 WR in 2023 as long as Richardson continues to develop according to plan.
Travis Etienne, Jacksonville Jaguars
Many were scared that Etienne would lose a lot of work when the Jaguars drafted Tank Bigsby in the third round of the 2023 NFL Draft. Week 1 has most definitely eased those concerns. Etienne looked like a bell-cow in his first game of the season. Check out this volume:
His 86% route rate and 15.6% target share were both career highs. Per Scott Barrett, Etienne was sixth amongst running backs in Weighted Opportunity in Week 1, despite Bigsby getting both of the goal-line carries.
The Jags put up 31 points and Etienne played on 80% of the snaps. While an 80% snap share might not hold as the season rolls on, it's extremely promising right out of the gates. If you're looking to "buy high" on a running back coming out of Week 1, it's Travis Etienne.
Zay Flowers, Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens rookie looked absolutely electric in his NFL debut.
The moves are great, but it wasn't just the moves that made Flowers one of the biggest risers of the week. He led all receivers with a 47.6% target share. Yes, you read that right, a 47.6% target share. Insanity for a rookie in his first career NFL game.
Sure, Mark Andrews was out for this one, but Flowers was by far and away Lamar Jackson's number-one target. In fact, he was the first read on so many occasions that he broke this chart created by Ryan Heath.
With J.K. Dobbins (Achilles tear) now out for the season, expect the Ravens' offense to run through Flowers (and Andrews when healthy). This kid is a baller and Baltimore will continue to find creative ways to get the ball in his hands. Consider him a surefire WR3 for now.
Puka Nacua, Los Angeles Rams
Another rookie wide receiver! But this one wasn't a first-round pick. Heck, he wasn't even a second, third, or fourth-round pick either. The BYU product was a fifth-round pick (No. 177 overall). His performance in Week 1 gives off Amon-Ra St. Brown vibes. Both guys were Day 3 picks and both guys are going to remember all of the receivers that were drafted ahead of them.
Puka Nacua was second amongst all receivers in target share in Week 1 at 45%. Flowers, another rookie discussed above, led all receivers in target share. And like Flowers, Nacua was Matthew Stafford's first read on a very large percentage of plays:
It took just one NFL game for Nacua to expeditiously pass both Tyler Higbee and Van Jefferson on the receiver totem pole. He secured 15 targets on just 78% of the snaps. That's insane behavior. Yes, Puka Nacua is for real, at least until Cooper Kupp returns. When Kupp will return is anyone's guess. For the time being (at least the next three weeks), Nacua should be considered a top-30 WR.
Even when Kupp returns, this could be a very narrow target funnel with Kupp and Nacua. Don't think for a second you wasted your precious FAAB dollars. Go get this guy on your fantasy team.
Other Risers: Kenneth Gainwell, James Cook, Romeo Doubs, Brian Robinson Jr., Brock Purdy
Week 2 Fantasy Football Fallers
Khalil Herbert, Chicago Bears
In the box score, it doesn’t look all that bad for Herbert in Week 1. He put up 11.4 PPR points, which was good for RB24 on the week. Not great, but also not terrible. But then you start to dig into the peripheral utilization, and things get really ugly, really fast.
Herbert played on just 36% of the snaps and had just a 41.2% opportunity share. D’Onta Foreman and Roschon Johnson combined to get 20 of 34 total RB opportunities on the day. Many will point to the fact that Johnson didn’t see much work until the game was out of reach.
While there may be some truth to that, it was clear from the looks of it that Johnson might have a stranglehold on the third-down role in Chicago already. He looked fantastic in pass protection for a team that has a poor offensive line, and he was out there trucking dudes:
So if Herbert is going to split the early-down work with Foreman and Johnson is going to play on third downs and obvious passing situations, what piece of the pie does that realistically leave for Herbert? He could find himself in a groove next game, but I’m betting on Johnson getting even more comfortable as he plays in more games. It’s only a matter of time before the rookie takes control of this backfield.
If you drafted Herbert, now isn’t the right time to try and sell him. See if he can put together a decent game in Week 2 against the Buccaneers and then sell him before a trip to Arrowhead in Week 3. Hopefully, he’ll score a touchdown this week and fantasy managers will buy back in. But don’t be fooled, Roschon Johnson is the back you want in this offense moving forward.
Cam Akers, Los Angeles Rams
Akers had a whopping 22 carries in Week 1 and scored a touchdown! Wow, what a monster! Until you see he turned those 22 carries into just 29 yards (1.3 yards per carry) and played just 35% of the snaps. Meanwhile, it was the Kyren Williams show for the other 65% of the snaps.
Williams had just 15 carries but turned them into 52 yards and two touchdowns on the day. He looked much better than Akers throughout the game. Check out the power on this run:
And Kyren received most of the high-value snaps in Week 1 as well:
And it's not as if the Rams were in a negative game script and just using Williams as a result. They were in control throughout the game and just decided he was the better back. This is likely to be the case going forward, especially after Kyren completely outperformed Akers in Week 1.
JuJu Smith-Schuster, New England Patriots
Smith-Schuster signed with the Patriots in the offseason after a year with the Chiefs. With DeVante Parker out in Week 1, many expected JuJu to take the reigns as the WR1 in New England.
While he tied for second on the team in targets, he played just 54% of the snaps. He ran a route on just 27 of 58 Mac Jones dropbacks (46.6%). He played behind Kendrick Bourne and rookie Kayshon Boutte and played just a handful of snaps more than Demario Douglas.
There was a report prior to Week 1 from Albert Breer that said Smith-Schuster's knee is on the verge of exploding, so it's possible the Patriots are simply trying to manage his reps. But if that's the case all season, he's not going to be startable in fantasy football.
Even with the seven targets he received, he only managed to churn out 33 yards. His usage and utilization look to be a major concern moving forward. Feel free to cut bait for a younger, healthier guy with a much higher ceiling. Even a guy like Calvin Austin in Pittsburgh (with Diontae Johnson's hamstring injury) would be preferable.
Christian Kirk, Jacksonville Jaguars
If you followed the drumbeat in the preseason, you could have seen this one coming. But alas, here we are after Week 1, a week in which Christian Kirk played just 60% of the snaps and caught just one ball on three targets. He consistently came off the field in two WR sets in favor of Zay Jones. Jones played on 89% of the snaps and garnered seven targets. He appears to be the clear WR2 (for now) on the Jaguars.
In his first season in Jacksonville, Kirk never played on fewer than 75% of the snaps and only saw fewer than five targets in two of 17 games. Through just one week this season, his role is already looking quite shaky with the addition of Calvin Ridley. And Ridley is an absolute baller!
Kirk's target share wasn't even all that great last season (23.2%), but his snap share, route participation, and lack of an elite receiver in Jacksonville enabled him to take the reigns as WR1 and finish top-15 at his position. Things appear much different this season, so it's best to temper expectations. It's not time to drop Kirk, but he's probably not startable unless of an injury to one of the top guys that play in two WR sets.
Other Fallers: Kyle Pitts, Dameon Pierce, Najee Harris, D'Andre Swift, Skyy Moore
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