Overvalued Fantasy Football Running Backs - Backup RBs Getting Too Expensive

June 21, 2023

Craig's 2023 fantasy football running back handcuffs to avoid. He analyzes backup running backs whose price tags are too expensive for fantasy football drafts.

While more and more NFL teams are embracing a running back-by-committee (RBBC) strategy, fantasy football managers know there are still some workhorses out there who get the bulk of the carries in their respective backfields. While these bell cow backs come at a steep price, having them on your fantasy team gives you a competitive edge over teams whose back is in a committee.

But don't forget that your star running back is only one tackle away from tearing their ACL. Having their understudy on your fantasy roster as a handcuff can be a great way to provide security for your squad. Not having reserve running backs as insurance for your top tailbacks could end up ruining your season and your chance at a league title.

The problem is that the price tag and ADP for some of these reserve runners are as high as today’s interest rates, making them a costly investment at the expense of drafting a starter at a different position. Managers need to avoid these expensive backs and look elsewhere when building their bench. Here are three backup running backs fantasy managers should be wary of spending too much money on or drafting too high on draft day.

Overvalued Backup Running Backs

Elijah Mitchell, San Francisco 49ers

Mitchell is probably one of the most sought-after reserve running backs in fantasy football. This between-the-tackles battering ram with surprising outside speed ran for 963 yards in his rookie campaign in 2021 and followed that up last season by averaging a scintillating 6.2 yards per carry on 45 rushing attempts. He has scored eight touchdowns in 16 career contests, plays in a run-first offense, and has oft-injured Christian McCaffrey ahead of him on the depth chart.

However, Mitchell is just as prone to getting injured as McCaffrey is. He missed a handful of games to injury in 2021, some of which were due to a concussion. Mitchell then missed another dozen in 2022 because of a knee injury. The RB even missed a playoff game this past postseason due to a groin injury.

Mitchell runs hard, and this approach seems to take a significant toll on his body. If McCaffrey gets hurt and Mitchell does not, Mitchell could rush for 1,200 yards and 12 touchdowns. The 25-year-old's injury history suggests that this scenario is unlikely to happen in 2023, though.

Rashaad Penny, Philadelphia Eagles

Penny signed a bargain-basement one-year deal in the offseason with the reigning NFC champs, the Philadelphia Eagles. The team's offensive strategy revolves around the ground game, providing ample opportunities for their running backs to carry the ball and pile up fantasy points behind one of the league’s best offensive lines.

Despite the addition of D'Andre Swift to Philly's running back room, Penny still has a chance to become the primary early-down back and red zone runner for one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL. This potential makes him one of the top sleepers heading into fantasy football drafts.

However, it's important not to overlook Penny's injury history. Despite an impressive 5.7 yards per carry (YPC) during his five-year career, Penny has only suited up for 42 games during that span. When he does suffer an injury, it is usually of the season-ending variety. Penny can be one of the most exciting runners in the NFL, but how many games will he be healthy for this season?

The back has also only scored 14 touchdowns and caught 27 passes out of the backfield in his career, making it hard to imagine he will beat out Swift as Philly’s top running back. Swift's pass-catching ability will likely give him more touches per game than Penny.

Fantasy managers who draft Penny in the middle-to-late rounds can expect decent production for at least half of the season. However, those who decide to draft him earlier hoping for a healthy 1,000-yard rusher may end up kicking themselves when he inevitably lands on the injured reserve.

Trayveon Williams, Cincinnati Bengals

Williams was brought back on a one-year deal and is the favorite to be Joe Mixon’s backup now that Samaje Perine has moved on to the Denver Broncos. Mixon is currently dealing with off-field legal issues, and there is a chance he might get released or traded before the season starts. This has made Williams a popular pick in some fantasy circles.

However, the problem with Williams is that his sample size is almost nonexistent. He has only had 47 carries in four seasons. Although he has averaged 5.1 yards per carry over that short span, he has never scored a touchdown and was usually a distant third on the depth chart behind Mixon and Perine.

Even if Mixon is cut in the coming months, it would be unrealistic to expect Williams to suddenly become the next Gale Sayers. While fantasy managers might be targeting him in dynasty leagues this offseason, it's best to avoid Williams, especially considering his current cost.

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