Last Year's Fantasy Football League Winners Set to Bust in 2024

John examines two fantasy football draft busts and avoids for 2024 who were league winners last year. They have a high chance of busting at their ADPs in 2024.

It's tough to accurately predict which players will bust in any given year. This can be a problem for fantasy football managers, as busts can easily make or break teams. It's crucial to attempt to identify players who will disappoint.

There are players viewed as great each year who are drafted highly and bust massively. In 2023, Austin Ekeler and Tony Pollard's owners had awful seasons and likely made the playoffs at a much lower rate.

While it's even more difficult to predict last year's league winners becoming busts, some indicators can help. We'll do our best to break them down. There's no guarantee they will bust, but as a fantasy manager, you shouldn't ignore the red flags.

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Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Rachaad White enjoyed a monster season in 2023, finishing as the RB4 in PPR. White was used heavily in former Buccaneers offensive coordinator Dave Canales' offense, logging 272 carries (as many as Christian McCaffrey) and gathering 64 catches off 70 targets.

White was a focal point of the Buccaneers' offensive game plan, with heavy involvement in both the passing and receiving game. While White was a pleasant surprise for fantasy owners, one must wonder how much of White's usage was due to Canales' scheme.

Canales was in his first year as OC for the Buccaneers, so there's not much information to go off, but White's usage in the passing game could have come at the expense of Chris Godwin, who only had two touchdowns and gathered his lowest reception total since 2020. In addition, White's rushing efficiency was incredibly alarming.

White ranked below 32nd in many rushing efficiency metrics. He only averaged 3.6 yards per carry, good for 44th in the league. Advanced analytics ranked him below 32nd as a pure runner. He was awful at forcing missed tackles and, thus, was generally bad at creating more than what the plays and scheme gave him.

#Buccaneers RB Rachaad White is an easy fade in 2024 #fantasyfootball drafts.

Among 49 RBs with 90+ carries last year, White finished:

-40th in Explosive Run % Per @FantasyPtsData
-42nd in Missed Tackles Forced Per Attempt per @FantasyPtsData
-44th in @PFF Rushing Grade…

— Dave Ventresca (@FF_Stallion) August 20, 2024

While there is a case to be made that White still produced in the receiving game and had good overall rushing numbers if you ignore efficiency (990 rushing yards, six rushing TDs), coaching staffs notice inefficiency and tend to want to replace it. White did not leap in 2023 efficiency-wise; he merely handled a much higher rushing workload.

To complicate matters for White, the Buccaneers drafted Bucky Irving in the 2024 NFL Draft, and they have been effusive in their praise for him.

Irving was highly efficient with the Oregon Ducks in 2023, averaging 6.3 and 6.2 YPC in his last two seasons at Oregon. Irving is also one of the most elusive RBs to come out of this draft class. He forced a missed tackle on the equivalent of 37.1% of his carries last season.

So this Super Bowl has been pretty boring.

You know who's not boring?

My RB1, the most elusive RB in the class, Mar'Keise "Bucky" Irving

This year's answer to your Devon Achane / Jahmyr Gibbs / James Cook thirst

Full scouting report is now live. pic.twitter.com/lYPw8nVjT1

— Dynasty Zoltan (Mike Garai) (@DynastyZoltanFF) February 12, 2024

Though Irving wasn't an early round pick, it should be alarming to fantasy managers going into their drafts that an RB with his profile is joining the team. Irving could quickly carve out a role if he is a more efficient rusher in the NFL.

Additionally, Irving has been a solid pass-catching RB, catching 53 balls in his final season at Oregon. White hasn't shown the efficiency to produce on low volume. He's one of the clearest bust candidates of 2024.

Kyren Williams, Los Angeles Rams

Kyren Williams was a bona fide league winner in 2023, bursting on the scene and immediately taking over Cam Akers' starting job. Williams put up even better per-game numbers than White, finishing second in PPR points per game behind only Christian McCaffrey. Why, then, is he potentially set to bust in 2024?

The situation is a bit murkier. For starters, if Williams were seen as a complete NFL RB by the Rams and capable of handling his bell-cow role, it would be perplexing that the Rams drafted Blake Corum in the third round. That means Corum was selected a full two rounds off from where Williams was selected in 2022.

The whole punt returner/kick returner situation could be overblown, as it could be Williams' job to mostly fair catch punts, and head coach Sean McVay could have designated Williams as the PR to save a roster spot. What's more concerning is how similar Corum and Williams profile.

Corum is the most accomplished RB of the 2024 class, rushing for 3,737 yards and 58 touchdowns in his career, which are monster numbers. Corum rushed for 2,481 yards and 42 TDs in his final two years, compared to 2,127 yards and 27 TDs for Williams.

While they have similar athletic profiles, Corum was significantly faster at the NFL Combine, running 4.53 compared to Williams' 4.65. Corum excels in short-yardage and goal-line situations. There's a possibility that Corum siphons goal-line work and it's worth questioning why the Rams drafted Corum if not to utilize his best skill set.

Opening play of the 2020 season.

From the first play of Blake Corum’s career, I knew this kid was different. I never imagined 3 years later he would score touchdowns to put away the Rose Bowl and a National Championship.

Michigan legend! #GoBlue pic.twitter.com/b4L14U1865

— Don Thomas (@REALDonThomas) April 8, 2024

"Faster Williams and better in short-yardage situations" is a summary of Corum that's not far from the truth. Given McVay's tendency to move away from RBs quickly (re. the Akers situation), it's possible that this backfield could at best be a full-blown committee.

Given Williams' struggle with injuries in his career (eight missed games in 2022, four in 2023), it's possible that he could see a significant reduction in workload throughout the season. Williams had one of the highest workloads of any RB in 2023, registering the highest percentage of RB snaps and leading the league in touches per game.

Williams also logged 73.5% of the Rams' red-zone carries, scoring 11 TDs from the red zone. Corum's prolific career in short-yardage and red-zone situations figured to be used to at least some degree by McVay's offense.

It's difficult to say. The others don't have quite the same red flags as White and Williams do. While some will surely bust due to injury, that's impossible to predict before the season starts (i.e. Nick Chubb in 2023). "Acts of God" are unpredictable and shouldn't be considered.

It's also possible White and Williams are fine and don't bust, but they both have alarming red flags that shouldn't be ignored by fantasy managers. Be cautious when targeting White and Williams in your drafts in 2024.

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