RADIO
Better in Chicago?
I understand the Chicago Cubs addition of Miguel Montero was not all about his bat. He is also an upgrade defensively over Wellington Castillo. You can read all about his ability to frame and his defensive metrics in this great piece from Fangraphs.
He'll hit in the middle of the rebuilt Cubs lineup. There are two questions for now. Does he make the Cubs better? (I’m a die-hard Cubs fan) and does he have fantasy relevance?
Of course he makes the Cubs better. The second answer might take a little more nuance.
Montero is coming off a season in which he fell short of his career averages in HR, R, AVG, OBP and SLG. He actually had a great start to 2014. In the first half, he hit 11 HR and drove in 52 RBI while hitting around his career average of .262. He earned his second All-Star appearance before promptly falling off a cliff.
After the break, he hit .212 while driving in 22 RBI with two HR. This smells of a hidden injury but nothing ever came out. Over his career, Montero has been pretty consistent in both halves with a .262/.265 split. Something must have hindered his performance. Perhaps fatigue?
Montero had a career low BABIP of .275 which put him 20th out of 23 catchers with at least 400 plate appearances in 2014. It wasn’t all bad last year. Montero lowered his strikeout rate to a respectable 17.3, down 6% from the previous season. He makes contact at an 80% rate, putting him just outside the top 10 for catchers. His line drive rate was a respectable 21% in 2014; it just seems he had no luck. If he can get his BABIP up to his career average, Montero’s AVG, OBP and SLG should rise this year.
How does he help the Cubs and how do the Cubs help Montero?
Montero brings another lefty bat to the new Cubs lineup. He is successful against righties with a .274 career average. Against same-handed pitching, he has a lowly .234 average. This is probably why the Cubs brought David Ross aboard - to platoon against left-handed pitchers.
Montero will most likely bat sixth behind Jorge Soler. He should garner plenty of opportunities to drive in runs. He boasts a nice .280 career average with men in scoring position. Despite his down year, he still managed to finish fifth in RBI for catchers last year. He has surpassed 72 RBI in three seasons and he finished ahead of Jonathan Lucroy and Salvador Perez in that category in 2014 with 100 fewer at bats.
Montero is moving from one hitter's park to another, so I don’t think the move to Wrigley Field helps all that much. Maybe on the days when the wind is blowing out (which is less often than blowing in) he could get a wind aided HR or two. The real adjustment that new Cubs players have to make is the amount of day games they play but I don’t see this being a huge problem.
What is his value and where should I draft him?
His current ADP on FantasyPros is 195, and he has been the 13th catcher off the board, which means in most leagues he'll be one of the last starting catchers drafted. Where you should take him depends on your league format. If you’re in a two catcher league, there is more pressure on the catcher position. You don’t want to be stuck with two duds.
With the ADP right now, it looks like most drafters are waiting for catchers. With a serviceable starting catcher like Montero available toward the backend, it's no surprise why..
You might be pleasantly surprised at how well Montero will do in Chicago with their improving young lineup. Remember, he had more RBI than Lucroy and Perez, both of whom are being drafted 8-10 rounds ahead of Montero. I have no problem taking Montero around 175 and feeling confident he will produce starting catcher numbers for your fantasy team in 2015.
2015 Projection: .269, 15 HR, 78 RBI, 55 R
