X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Three Overvalued First Basemen: 2014 Fantasy Baseball Rankings

I am excited to bring you the first part of my two day series examining first basemen that I think fantasy baseball analysts and experts are ranking either too high or too low.

Today, we’ll discuss three guys at the position that I think are overrated and should not be drafted as high as they are projected to go.

 

2014 Rankings Analysis - First Base (1B)

 

Chris Davis 

By Keith Allison on Flickr (Originally posted to Flickr as "Chris Davis") [CC-BY-SA-2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

Most experts have Davis slotted in as the #2 first baseman this year behind Paul Goldschmidt. Sorry, Orioles fans, I’m just not buying the hype.

Davis had a phenomenal, breakout 2013 season, no question about it. But if you had Davis on your team last year and sold high on him, say on July 1st, you would have been extremely pleased with yourself, and likely would have hauled some nice players in return. Let’s look at Davis’ 1st half vs. his 2nd half of the 2013 season.

1st Half:  .315 BA, 37 HR, 93 RBI

2nd Half: .245 BA, 16 HR, 45 RBI

Davis is the perfect regression candidate for 2014. Pitchers figured him out the second half of 2013, and he struggled mightily to adjust. His strikeout rate increased and his insanely high BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play) for the first half of the year came back down to earth and evened out, meaning he probably wasn't putting as many quality hits in play.

Of course Davis is an high-end first baseman for any fantasy team. And he could hit a ton of bombs (probably not 50 again) while hitting .280. But it’s far from guaranteed, and he is going as a top 10 pick. For me, that’s simply too high for not-a-sure thing. I would rather have Paul Goldschmidt, Prince Fielder, Joey Votto, Edwin Encarnacion, and maybe even Freddie Freeman as my first baseman before I picked up Davis.  While many would disagree with some of those players being taken ahead of Davis, what you can't disagree with is they are certainly priced more reasonably than Davis is.  Take Davis in the top 10 at your own risk, but don’t be shocked if he doesn’t give you top-10 numbers again.

 

Eric Hosmer

There are many things to like about Hosmer, including his age (he’s only 24). He's kind of like a poor man's Freddie Freeman. He had a very nice all-around 2013 season and one would logically think that his numbers will only get better as he develops into his prime.

However, there’s something about Hosmer that irks me. Perhaps it’s because he’s on the Royals (obviously not his fault). Or maybe it’s because he’s been elevated to just below elite-level status by many fantasy experts, after only one pretty good season (again, not his fault).

This is the thing with Hosmer: He’s going to be a bad value pick in drafts.  Here's what I mean. He is one of the first or second guys of the “second tier” group of first basemen. Given where you will have to pick Hosmer in your draft, I would much rather wait a few rounds and get a guy who will give me very similar production, with maybe a little lower batting average. For instance, give me someone like Mark Teixeira or Justin Morneau (assuming health) in the 12th round instead of Hosmer in the 5th/6th. Those guys could easily hit 30 HRs and hit around .260, which would be perfectly fine with me.  Hosmer, quite simply, does not hit enough fly balls to hit more than 25 HR. His ceiling is 25 HR, compared to other guys who could easily surpass 30.

There’s also not a ton of positions this year that are going to give you guaranteed power. I would recommend trying to get a power guy at your first base spot, and while Hosmer may hit 20 HRs and hit around .300, he’s probably not going to give you the same power numbers as other first baseman, including some that are ranked much lower at the position. I'd rank Adrian Gonzalez and Albert Pujols higher.

 

Brandon Belt

I’ve been hearing for the past three seasons how Brandon Belt is going to be the next big thing.

I’m still waiting.

He had a decent 2013, hitting .289 with 17 HRs. But the Giants lineup never produces a ton of runs and he will always be struggling for plentiful RBI opportunities, especially playing in the pitcher-friendly confines of AT&T Park.  Belt is simply not going to be the 30 HR-per-year slugger many thought he would be when he first came into the league. I believe his ranking by experts of just outside the top 12 is more wishful thinking than anything else.

The fact is Belt's a solid hitter, but his 2013 strikeout rate (21.9%) was significantly higher than his walk rate (9.1%) and his OBP (.360) should be better too. His strikeout rate would be fine if he hit 30+ HRs a year, but he doesn’t.

For fantasy purposes, there are many other options around Belt’s rank that can get you a decent batting average and produce greater power numbers. I'd rank Brandon Moss and Jose Abreu higher than Belt, and both can be had later in the draft.

 

Come back tomorrow for the three first basemen who I think are ranked too low and the guys you can potentially get at a discount come draft day!

 




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Aaron Jones Sr.

Injures Hamstring During Sunday Night Football
Darren Waller

Not Expected to Play in Week 3
Garrett Crochet

Punches Out 12 in Win
Cole Ragans

to Return on Wednesday
Jameson Williams

Records Long Touchdown in Week 2, Still Limited to Downfield Role?
George Kirby

Strikes Out 14 in Win
Jayden Daniels

Considered "Day-to-Day" with Knee Injury
Carlos Estévez

Carlos Estevez Exits with Back Tightness
Jonathan Taylor

Tops 200 Yards From Scrimmage in Week 2 Win
Joe Burrow

Could Miss Three Months if he Requires Toe Surgery
Davante Adams

Headlines Rams Receiving Corps Sunday
Wan'Dale Robinson

Explodes for 142 Yards, Touchdown in Overtime Thriller
Joe Flacco

Browns Not Considering Benching Joe Flacco After Week 2
Quentin Grimes

Still Not Close to a New Contract Agreement
Lamar Jackson

Throws for Four Touchdowns in Week 2 Win
James Cook

Scores Two Touchdowns in Rout of Jets
Joel Embiid

"Looking Slender, Spry and in Positive Spirits"
Rome Odunze

Scores Twice in Loss
Ja'Marr Chase

Snags 14 Receptions, Finds End Zone in Week 2
Russell Wilson

Throws for 450 Yards, Three Touchdowns in Loss
Jared Goff

Throws Five Touchdowns
Amon-Ra St. Brown

Scores Three Touchdowns
Joe Burrow

Suffers Turf Toe and Torn Ligaments in Win
Malik Nabers

Explodes for Two Touchdowns in Overtime Thriller
Joe Burrow

Seen with Boot and Crutches Postgame
Ty Gibbs

Has Arguably his Best Career Drive, but Only Finishes 10th
Chase Elliott

Despite Crashing Out at Bristol, Chase Elliott Advances to Round of 12
Austin Dillon

Misses Round of 12 After Extremely Mediocre Bristol Run
Shane Van Gisbergen

Shane van Gisbergen Fails to Advance to Round of 12
Josh Berry

Finishes Last in All Three Round of 16 Races to Fail to Advance
Justin Fields

Diagnosed With Concussion Sunday
Tyrod Taylor

Justin Fields Evaluated for Concussion, Tyrod Taylor Enters Game
Luis Arraez

Takes a Seat on Sunday With Head Injury
Adolis García

Adolis Garcia Activated, Starting on Sunday
CFB

Ryan Williams Explodes In Return To Field
CFB

Drew Allar Plays Mediocre Game In Blowout Win
CFB

LaNorris Sellers Exits Game In Blowout Loss
CFB

DJ Lagway Tosses Five Interceptions In Loss
CFB

Garrett Nussmeier Plays Game Manager in Saturday's Win
CFB

CJ Carr Remains Poised In Narrow Loss
CFB

John Mateer Leads Oklahoma In Rout
CFB

Arch Manning Struggles Against UTEP
CFB

Jeremiah Smith Impresses In Win
Bryan Woo

Records Career-High 13 Strikeouts
Max Muncy

Exits Early on Saturday
CFB

Sam Leavitt Shines As Arizona State Rebounds From Week 2 Loss
Salvador Perez

Reaches 300 Home Runs, 1,000 RBI
Jose Altuve

Exits Early With Foot Discomfort
Trey Yesavage

Heading to Big Leagues
Will Smith

Placed on 10-Day Injured List
Ivan Demidov

Turning Heads in Rookie Camp
NHL

Calvin de Haan Signs With Swedish Team
Samuel Girard

Skates With Non-Contact Jersey
Mackenzie Blackwood

Dealing With Injury Ahead of Training Camp
Spencer Knight

Signs Three-Year Extension With Blackhawks
Chris Buescher

May have Another Solid Run at Bristol
Corey Perry

Out 6-8 Weeks Following Surgery
Kyle Busch

Should DFS Managers Roster Kyle Busch at Bristol?
Ricky Stenhouse Jr

Is Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Too Risky to Consider Rostering at Bristol?
Michael McDowell

Could be A Solid Value Option For Bristol DFS Lineups
Chase Elliott

Probably Won't Factor in for Bristol Win
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Not as Strong at Bristol as Other Short Tracks
Alex Bowman

Needs to Win to Make Round of 12
Ross Chastain

has Never Led at Bristol but Has Been Pretty Consistent
Austin Dillon

Richmond Speed Unlikely to Carry Over to Bristol
Josh Berry

Might Run Well at Bristol, but Almost Certainly Won't Win to Advance
Justin Haley

Bristol One of Justin Haley's Few Recent Bright Spots
Ryan Preece

Seems Slower on Concrete Than on Asphalt
NASCAR

Legacy Motor Club's Short-Track Speed Will Likely Hold John H. Nemechek Back
Erik Jones

Definitely Faster This Year, but Short Tracks Still a Liability
Daniel Suarez

Despite Poor Qualifying Run, Daniel Suarez Might Not Be a Great Choice
Noah Gragson

Unlikely to Be Fast at Bristol but Still Might Be Worth Considering for DFS
Tarik Skubal

Avoids Serious Injury, Expected to Make Next Start
CFB

Austin Simmons Listed As Game-Time Decision Against Arkansas
CFB

Nico Iamaleava Struggles In Fourth Straight Loss
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

Dealing With a "Tweak"
BUF

Alexandar Georgiev Joins Sabres on One-Year Deal
Corey Perry

Injured During Pre-Camp Skate
Tanner Bibee

Fans 10 in Two-Hit Shutout
Zach Neto

Dealing With Wrist Soreness
Masyn Winn

Shut Down for Rest of Season
Tarik Skubal

to Undergo Imaging on Saturday
Tyler Soderstrom

Scratched on Friday With Groin Tightness
Tarik Skubal

Exits with Side Tightness
CFB

Antonio Williams Out Against Georgia Tech
Ketel Marte

Scratched From Friday's Lineup
CFB

CJ Bailey Flashes Again in Win Over Wake Forest
CFB

Jaxson Moi a Game-Time Decision for Tennessee on Saturday
Jean Silva

A Favorite At Noche UFC 3
Kyle Tucker

"Unlikely" to Return When Eligible on Tuesday
Diego Lopes

Set For Noche UFC 3 Main Event
Rob Font

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
David Martinez

Set For Noche UFC 3 Co-Main Event
Rafa Garcia

An Underdog At Noche UFC 3
Jared Gordon

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Dustin Stoltzfus

Looks To Return To The Win Column
Kelvin Gastelum

In Dire Need Of Victory
Diego Ferreira

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Alexander Hernandez

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Quang Le

Set For Noche UFC 3 Main Card Opener
Santiago Luna

Set For His Debut At Noche UFC 3
Malcolm Brogdon

Heading to Knicks on One-Year Deal
CFB

David Sanders Jr. Won't Play Against Georgia
Landry Shamet

Staying with the Knicks
CFB

Dylan Edwards Slated to Return on Friday
Adam Lowry

Aims for Early-Season Return
Charles Oliveira

Not Eyeing Retirement
CFB

Ryan Williams Expected to Play Against Wisconsin
CFB

Billy Edwards Jr. Unlikely to Play on Saturday
P.J. Washington

Officially Signs Contract Extension
CFB

David Sanders Jr. Questionable to Make Debut Against Georgia
Lauri Markkanen

Big at Both Ends as Finland Books Place in EuroBasket Semis
Luka Dončić

Luka Doncic Notches 39 Points in Losing Effort
NBA

Cam Reddish Expected to Move to Europe
NBA

Trey Lyles Joins Real Madrid
Charles Bassey

Signs Exhibit 10 Deal With Hawks
Sacramento Kings

Terence Davis Waived by Kings
Matthew Knies

Ready for Bigger Role With Maple Leafs
Jack Eichel

Unbothered by Lack of Extension
Sidney Crosby

Not Thinking About Leaving Pittsburgh
SJ

Michael Misa Signs Entry-Level Contract With Sharks
Rutger McGroarty

Nursing an Injury
Cameron Champ

the Ultimate Wild Card at Procore
Cameron Young

Looks to Extend Momentum in Napa
Davis Thompson

Searching for a Spark at Procore
Sahith Theegala

Looking to Reignite Form at Procore
Mackenzie Hughes

Aims for Another Strong Showing at Procore
Luke Clanton

Brings Ball-Striking Upside to Napa
Seamus Power

Looking to Overcome Poor Course History at Procore
Joe Highsmith

Hoping to Find Form in Napa
Kristaps Porzingis

Reportedly Still Not Completely Healthy
Kelly Oubre Jr.

Reportedly on the Trade Block
Andre Drummond

Future in Philadelphia in Doubt
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Helps Greece Reach Semis at EuroBasket
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Posts Historic Triple-Double
Joel Dahmen

Finishes Tied For 15 at Wyndham Championship
Bud Cauley

Finishes Tied for 33rd at BMW Championship
Justin Thomas

Finishes Tied for Seventh at Tour Championship
J.J. Spaun

Finishes Tied for 25th at Tour Championship
Collin Morikawa

Finishes Tied for 19th at Tour Championship
Keith Mitchell

Misses Cut at Wyndham Championship
Ben Griffin

Finishes Tied for 10th at Tour Championship
Patrick Cantlay

Finishes Tied for Second at Tour Championship
Gary Woodland

Could Hang Around at Procore Championship
Karl Vilips

Ready for Napa Valley This Weekend
Taylor Montgomery

Heating Up at the Right Time
Jackson Koivun

May Be a Little Rusty at Procore Championship
Doug Ghim

Looking to Rise Up at Napa Valley
Josh Giddey

Re-Signs With Bulls for Four Years
Shakir Mukhamadullin

Joins Informal Skate
William Eklund

Skates With Sharks
Owen Power

Back at 100 Percent
Tyler Seguin

Cleared for Action
Mathew Barzal

Good to Go for Season Opener
Dustin Wolf

Signs Seven-Year Extension
NBA

Mason Jones Takes His Talents to Australia
NBA

Talen Horton-Tucker Joins Reigning EuroLeague Champions
Malcolm Brogdon

on Knicks' Radar
Andrew Wiggins

Attracting Interest From Lakers

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP