X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Fallers - ADP Analysis for 2023 Drafts

Michael Pittman Jr. - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Antonio Losada looks at ADP variation of wide receivers to assess their situations for fantasy football. Which receivers' ADPs are falling and why?

Ah, our old friend, ADP. Average Draft Position indicates the mean position where a player is drafted over more than one fantasy football draft. You can consider it as the price you have to pay to draft and get a player on your team. A high ADP (that is actually a low-numbered ADP) means that a player is getting off draft boards early, and thus you'll need to draft him in the first rounds if you truly want him.

Low or high ADP values, though, are not gospel. Each of us fantasy GMs has our strategies and values players differently depending on what we think is the most important for them in terms of abilities. No matter what, though, ADPs are good to know how the "average value" of the "average GM" you'll be drafting against is for each asset (in this case, the players). By now, with free agency and the draft well finalized and just a few players left to be signed, it makes sense to go look at how ADPs are varying during the last month as we get closer to peak draft season.

In this series, I’ll highlight players at each skill position who have experienced notable fluctuations in their average draft positions using data from FFPC drafts.

Editor's Note: Discover RotoBaller’s top Fantasy Football Sleepers to gain an edge in your drafts. Our free who to draft tool and expert picks spotlight undervalued players, breakout candidates, and late-round gems for all league formats.

 

Fantasy Football Wide Receivers - ADP Fallers

 

Michael Pittman Jr., Indianapolis Colts

The Colts will have the same pair of receivers hugging the touchlines of the field next year in Michael Pittman Jr. and Alec Pierce. There will be a couple of new faces in town, though, in wideouts Isaiah McKenzie (FA signee) and rookie Josh Downs, although none of those two should threaten the WR1/WR2 role that Pittman/Pierce had last season.

Pittman's ADP, though, has fallen nearly a full round since the start of May in most drafts. He's the only player approaching such a large drop. The reason? Having to endure another mediocre-or-freshman quarterback with Indy moving on from Matt Ryan and now led by either Gardner Minshew or rookie Anthony Richardson.

Even with bad quarterbacking, Pittman is coming off back-to-back years, finishing as a top-20 player at the wide receiver position. That's no small feat, although fantasy GMs went a little crazy last summer and overpaid for Pittman at an average ADP of 32nd OVR only to see him score the 53rd-most fantasy points in PPR leagues, tanking the potential ROI they expected.

This offseason, at last now in the early days, fantasy GMs are being more cautious with Pittman knowing what might be coming. The ADP is still an expensive 60th OVR, but that aligns much better with the expectations (Pittman finished 2021 as the 42nd OVR player and then the 53rd-best last year) than last summer's. Good bet at this price, and even more so if the ADP keeps falling.

 

DJ Moore, Chicago Bears

The case of DJ Moore is interesting, and a quick glimpse at his ADP trend will tell you why. It was on the rise until just a few days ago when it started to tank massively. Had it not been for that early-May bump up, the fall would be much more pronounced than just a seven-pick drop on average through the last two weeks.

Nothing has really changed in the last few days, though. In fact, we've gotten reports from the Bears camp (from HC Matt Eberflus indeed) saying that Justin Fields "has looked stronger in his rhythm and timing" and that he's making better throws in the early part of the training camp. The only good news for the Bears that could actually hurt DJ Moore's upside a bit is the expected return of Darnell Mooney.

According to the Bears WR coach, Mooney should be ready for training camp after getting injured in Week 12 last year and rehabbing from an ankle injury. Outside of Moore and Mooney, the Bears don't have much to keep defenses honest, which might end up hurting those top-2 wide receivers in terms of dealing with heavy attention.

Moore, while the better player, should be commanding the strongest defender on a play-by-play basis and opening chances for Mooney more than the other way around, thus (I believe) the slight drop in ADP and distrust of some fantasy GMs.

That said, Moore has been a perennial top-35 WR in fantasy leagues since he entered the league in 2018, and it's not that he's played in underloaded offenses led by superstar QBs in Carolina before. Moore has finished the last two seasons with WR2-level production scoring 237.5 and 199.1 PPR points, averaging 14 and 11.7 FPPG, and catching at least 63+ passes for 888+ yards and 4+ TDs in each of those years.

The current ADP is where it should be, so any further fall and drop in price might turn Moore into a true bargain.

 

Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tampa Bay is a loser by default this offseason. It happens when you go from having the absolute GOAT of the sport manning your pocket... to Baker Mayfield in the best of cases. Ugh.

Other than losing Brady and signing Baker, the Bucs have not really pulled off any magic trick during the past few weeks and months. They drafted WR Trey Palmer and TE Payne Durham and signed Chase Edmonds to bolster a backfield that lost Leonard Fournette. That's pretty much all they have done in the market.

That's not entirely bad for Chris Godwin (or any other skill-position player in the Bucs organization, for that matter), as everybody pretty much retained their roles and will keep them next season. That means Godwin will still play second-fiddle to Mike Evans WR1, while Russell Gage should be the third WR in the position's pecking order.

Just a few days ago, the Bucs' WR coach said that Godwin would take part in a much larger set of plays next season, which might have defenses guessing and keeping them honest when it comes to defending pass plays even more until they can properly scout and know more about what TB has in the books for new QB Baker Mayfield.

In principle, this should boost Godwin's value allowing him to put up numbers in multiple and different ways instead of locking him into a role that might not truly suit him or maximize his talents. However, everything will depend on how quickly the WR and the QB can build good chemistry on the field.

Godwin already had a top-2 finish among players at his position back in 2019 while playing under Jameis Winston, so it's not that he hasn't proven capable of excelling under any circumstance and not just with Tom Brady throwing him the rock (in fact, he finished WR31, WR15, and WR18 with Brady). This multi-role news is promising and should translate to a bump and rise in his ADP, so we'll keep tracking it to see how the trend evolves.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!

More Fantasy Football Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Giannis Antetokounmpo

Potential Giannis Antetokounmpo Trade may not Happen Until "August, September"
Ha-Seong Kim

Removed Early During Season Debut
ARI

Christian Fischer Retires From NHL at 28
NHL

Spencer Martin Moves to Russia
WAS

Anthony Beauvillier Re-Signs With Capitals for Two Years
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Sitting Out With Foot Issue
Isaiah Neyor

Impresses at Minicamp
Houston Rockets

Jock Landale Waived by Rockets
Bo Bichette

Back in Blue Jays Lineup
Jonas Valančiūnas

Jonas Valanciunas Considering Returning to Europe
Miles Sanders

Works With Starters During Mandatory Minicamp
Jabari Walker

Signs Two-Way Deal With Sixers
Chimere Dike

Titans Could Move Chimere Dike Inside
Keandre Lambert-Smith

KeAndre Lambert-Smith not Guaranteed Roster Spot
Anthony Bradford

Working Hard to Win Back Starting Job
Byron Young

Still Improving?
Cody Simon

Jonathan Gannon has Been Impressed With Cody Simon
SirVocea Dennis

has Impressive Offseason
Trevor Penning

Could Still Have a Role in New Orleans
Jonathan Kuminga

Warriors Decline Recent Offer for Jonathan Kuminga
Orlando Magic

Moritz Wagner, Magic Agree to One-Year Deal
Clarke Schmidt

Placed on Injured List
José Soriano

Jose Soriano Throws Gem Against Braves
Robbie Ray

Earns Ninth Win in Complete Game
T.J. Watt

Likely to Reset the Edge-Rush Market
George Springer

Blasts Two Homers, Drives in Four
James Wood

Goes Yard in Five-Hit Night
Bradley Beal

Suns Discussing Potential Buyout
Los Angeles Lakers

Jaxson Hayes Staying with the Lakers
NBA

Damian Lillard "Open" to Signing With a Team This Offseason
Max Muncy

Out at Least Six Weeks
Clarke Schmidt

Leaves Start with Forearm Tightness
Colson Montgomery

Promoted to the Major Leagues
Pittsburgh Steelers

Omar Khan, Steelers Agree to Three-Year Contract
Max Muncy

Goes on Injured List With Knee Bruise
Max Muncy

Out of Thursday's Lineup
James Wood

Joining Home Run Derby
SJ

Sharks Claim Nick Leddy Off Waivers
Max Scherzer

Cleared to Start on Saturday
SJ

Sharks Sign Dmitry Orlov to Two-Year, $13 Million Contract
CAR

Nikolaj Ehlers Joins Hurricanes on Six-Year Contract
Kodai Senga

Could be "in Play" to Return Before All-Star Break
Ha-Seong Kim

Rays Reinstate Ha-Seong Kim From Injured List
Christian Moore

Placed on Injured List With Thumb Sprain
Luis L. Ortiz

the Subject of Gambling Investigation
Jordan Lawlar

to Miss Multiple Weeks With Hamstring Injury
Yordan Alvarez

Receives Encouraging News on his Hand
Chau Smith-Wade

Having Stellar Offseason
Ace Bailey

Inks Rookie Contract With Jazz
Divine Deablo

Could be the Quarterback of the Defense
Isaiah Rodgers

a Likely Starter for the Vikings
Jacob Monk

Sees Plenty of Work With Starters
Avonte Maddox

has Impressed Dan Campbell
Boston Celtics

Josh Minott Inks Deal With Celtics
Chicago Bears

Ruben Hyppolite Shows Notable Improvement
Sandro Mamukelashvili

Heading to Toronto
Daron Payne

Commanders Coaches Impressed With Daron Payne
Danny Gray

Makes Impression During Offseason Workouts
Jared McCain

Not on 76ers Summer League Roster
Dane Belton

Should Have a Role in 2025
Kaiir Elam

Flashes During Offseason Workouts
Dylan Harper

Unavailable for California Classic
COL

Brent Burns Inks One-Year Deal with Avalanche
STL

Blues Land Pius Suter on Two-Year Deal
Morgan Frost

Agrees to Two-Year Extension with Flames
WPG

Gustav Nyquist Moves to Winnipeg
Cody Glass

Devils Re-Sign Cody Glass to Two-Year Deal
PIT

Anthony Mantha Joins Penguins
Cleveland Cavaliers

Larry Nance Jr. Headed Back to Cavaliers
Eric Gordon

Remaining with 76ers
Los Angeles Lakers

Deandre Ayton Joining Lakers
Emil Heineman

Signs Two-Year Deal with Islanders
Simon Holmstrom

Re-Signs with Islanders for Two Years
UTA

Nate Schmidt Signs Three-Year Deal with Mammoth
UTA

Brandon Tanev Moves to Utah on Three-Year Contract
NJ

Evgenii Dadonov Joins Devils on One-Year Deal
BUF

Sabres Snap Up Alex Lyon on Two-Year Contract
Dallas Mavericks

Dante Exum Returning to Dallas
Ryan McLeod

Inks Four-Year Extension with Sabres
NAS

Predators Bring in Nick Perbix on Two-Year Deal
Jaren Jackson Jr.

Has Surgery to Repair a Turf Toe Injury
LA

Cody Ceci Moves to Los Angeles
Charlotte Hornets

Spencer Dinwiddie Lands With Charlotte
Bud Cauley

in Great Form Ahead of John Deere Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

a Player to Avoid at John Deere Classic
Jake Knapp

Riding Momentum Ahead of John Deere Classic
PGA

Sungjae Im Looking for Consistency at John Deere Classic
Ryan Gerard

a Solid Option at John Deere Classic
Rickie Fowler

Looking to Rebound at John Deere Classic
Cameron Champ

a Volatile Option at John Deere Classic
Jackson Suber

Staying Below 70 is Key to Success for Jackson Suber
Kevin Roy

Playing Better Heading into John Deere Classic
Justin Lower

Hoping for Something Positive in Illinois
Ben Kohles

a Long Shot at John Deere Classic
Stephan Jaeger

Attempts to Stop Roller-Coaster Ride
Beau Hossler

Needs a Challenge in Illinois
Harry Higgs

Has Potential at John Deere Classic
Nick Dunlap

Keeps Plugging Through Tough 2025 Season
Milwaukee Bucks

Taurean Prince Staying in Milwaukee
Kevin Yu

a Near Must-Play at TPC Deere Run
PGA

J.T. Poston Returns to John Deere Classic Looking for Another High Finish
Thriston Lawrence

a Decent Fit For John Deere Classic
Tom Kim

Not Finding Much to be Happy About Ahead of John Deere Classic
Si Woo Kim

is a Prohibitive Fade at John Deere Classic
Ben Griffin

is the Appropriate Favorite at TPC Deere Run
Daniel Suarez

and Trackhouse Racing Parting Ways After 2025 Season
Ilia Topuria

Becomes The New Lightweight Champion
Charles Oliveira

Knocked Out At UFC 317
Kai Kara-France

Alexandre Pantoja Submits Kai Kara-France
Kai Kara-France

Submitted At UFC 317
Joshua Van

Extends His Win Streak
Brandon Royval

Drops Decision
Renato Moicano

Loses Back-To-Back Fights
Beneil Dariush

Gets Back In The Win Column
Felipe Lima

Suffers His First UFC Loss
Payton Talbott

Bounces Back
Alex Bowman

Competitive Run Ends With Third-Place Finish at Atlanta
Erik Jones

Secures A Top-Five Finish After Adversity In Atlanta
Tyler Reddick

Collects A New Career-Best Finish At Atlanta
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF