Who's Going To Win The 2022 NFL MVP? Top Five MVP Candidates

January 30, 2023

Who's going to win the 2022 NFL MVP? Joe Nicely looks at the five candidates who are the most likely to capture the 2022 MVP award.

With 18 regular-season weeks now in the books, all MVP cases have been made for the 2022 NFL campaign.

The voting for each award, including MVP, is done before the playoffs start with the winners being announced the Thursday before the Super Bowl.

We’ll rank this year's top five MVP candidates here and discuss why each player deserves consideration for the NFL's highest individual award. Each player will be listed with their current sportsbook odds to win MVP. Odds below current as of 01/30/23. 

#1. Patrick Mahomes - QB, Kansas City Chiefs (Current MVP Odds: -1600)

The Kansas City quarterback is currently the overwhelming odds-on favorite to take home the 2022 NFL MVP award. It's tough to argue with, as Mahomes has been spectacular throughout the year. He leads the NFL in passing yards (5,250) and passing TDs (41), while his 105.1 passer rating narrowly trails only Tua Tagovailoa.

The MVP is an individual award, though it would be naive to think that how a player's team performs doesn't factor in. Thanks to Mahomes' stellar play, his Kansas City Chiefs squad have the AFC's best record at 14-3. With the 27-year-old at the helm, the Chiefs lead the NFL in both average total yards per game (424.7), passing yards per game (297.8), and average points per game (29.2).

Unlike some of his closest competitors for this award, Mahomes has remained injury free throughout the season and hasn't suffered from any multi-game slumps in performance, as he's topped 300 passing yards in nine of 17 games this year.

#2. Josh Allen - QB, Buffalo Bills (Current MVP Odds: +1500)

Buffalo's superstar quarterback appeared to have a stranglehold on the MVP award at the halfway mark of the season, as the Bills opened the year by going 7-1, a record that included a victory over the Patrick Mahomes-led Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium.

However, since suffering an elbow injury in a Week 9 loss to the New York Jets, Allen hasn't been quite as sharp as he was in the first part of the year. The Wyoming alum has displayed truckloads of toughness while playing through the injury, as well as fighting through multiple games spent in nasty weather, but after throwing for over 300 passing yards in half of Buffalo's first 10 games, he's only topped that benchmark once since Week 10, which has caused his MVP stock to drop.

If we want to make the argument for the phenomenal Bills' QB, he has played his best football in Buffalo's biggest games, including a Week 15 masterpiece against the divisional rival Miami Dolphins in which he tossed four TDs to no INTs in freezing temperatures. Allen also holds a heads-up win over Mahomes from a meeting earlier in the year. His chances took a huge hit when a Monday Night Football clash against the Cincinnati Bengals was canceled due to a life-threatening situation with Damar Hamlin.

#3. Jalen Hurts - QB, Philadelphia Eagles (Current MVP Odds: +1500)

Jalen Hurts' MVP odds surged to as low as -150 after a monster Week 15 performance against the Chicago Bears in which he amassed 305 yards through the air and ran for 61 yards and three scores on the ground. However, the victory over Chicago came with a huge cost, as Hurts separated his throwing shoulder en route to the win.

The injury forced the Philly signal caller from a highly publicized Week 16 matchup with the Dallas Cowboys, as well as a Week 17 tilt with the New Orleans Saints, and has derailed what was an undeniable MVP-caliber season. Hurts has surpassed any and all expectations in 2022, as he's grown as a pocket passer while remaining lethal as a runner.

Completing passes at an impressive 66.5% clip, Hurts has tallied 3,701 passing yards, as well as 22 passing TDs to just five INTs. He's somehow been even more dangerous as a runner, ranking fourth at the QB position with 760 rushing yards. His 13 rushing TDs lead all QBs and stand second in the entire NFL.

The Eagles are 14-1 in games Hurts has started this year. And while that lofty record has afforded Philadelphia the luxury of letting their star QB get healthy over the last few weeks of the regular season, his absence from the lineup will likely cost him the MVP award.

#4. Joe Burrow - QB, Cincinnati Bengals (Current MVP Odds: +900)

Joe Burrow's "value" to the Cincinnati Bengals is hard to put into perspective. Since drafting the quarterback that was fresh off a national championship-winning campaign with LSU at the top of the 2020 NFL draft, the entire trajectory of one of the NFL's worst franchises has been completely altered.

After an injury-shortened rookie season, Burrow led the Bengals to their first playoff win since 1990 and their first Super Bowl appearance since 1988 in a magical 2021 campaign. He's proven that last year was no fluke, as he's once again dazzled in 2022. Burrow has been deadly accurate from the pocket this season, completing passes at an almost superhuman 68.3% rate. He's totaled 4,475 passing yards and 35 passing TDs.

Most importantly, Burrow continues to lead the Bengals to victories. Cincinnati won the AFC North with a 12-4 record and has clinched a playoff berth, giving the organization its first back-to-back postseason appearances since 2014-15.

#5. Justin Jefferson - WR, Minnesota Vikings (Current MVP Odds: +15000)

Justin Jefferson isn't going to win the NFL MVP award this year but perhaps he should. The cards are stacked against the prodigious Vikings wide receiver, as the award has historically shut out every position except quarterback, with Adrian Peterson standing as the last non-QB to win the MVP back in 2012.

As if that weren't bad enough, no wide receiver has ever won the AP MVP award, which leaves Jefferson out in the cold despite what has been an MVP-caliber season by any measure. Jefferson has already shattered several of Minnesota's single-season franchise receiving records, including cruising past Randy Moss for most receiving yards in a season and Cris Carter's mark for most receptions in a season by a Viking.

Currently sitting on 1,809 receiving yards, the 23-year-old closed out the regular season just 155 yards short of Calvin Johnson's all-time single-season NFL record of 1,964 receiving yards.

Regardless of how many records he ultimately breaks, it has been a truly historic season for the Minnesota wideout that's in just his third year as a pro and has helped lead his team to an NFC North division title with a 13-4 record. While he'll most assuredly fall short of capturing this year's ultimate individual award, perhaps Jefferson's earth-shattering 2022 campaign will shed some light on the WR position in future MVP races.

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