December 16, 2016

Joe Sorensen analyzes some Week 15 starts and sits for fantasy football. Target these NFL lineup sleepers, and avoid these potential busts, based on matchups.

One week closer to naming your league’s champion? Of course you are. Each and every week, we are one week closer. This means every decision you have made since the beginning of the season has either led you to victory or has kept you away from it.

But, what if you had an opportunity to value a different position higher on your draft board? Looking back and now knowing what we know, would you still have take Rob Gronkowski in the first round? Should Tyler Eifert really fallen as low as he did, even though he was dealing with an injury? Why didn’t you draft Cameron Brate? We have all learned something this year, like we do every year. Tight end is probably the most complicated position to draft.

Editor's Note: New users that sign up on FantasyAces, make a $20 deposit, and enter any game will receive BOTH our full season NFL and NBA Premium Passes for free, a $119.99 value. Just email [email protected] with your new FantasyAces username - and boom, that's it! We will email you with your Premium Passes.

It's Week 15 - Who Should You Start

Remember: These columns do not include your every-week starters. For this week, players like Greg Olsen, Tyler Eifert and Jordan Reed are not considered. This article goes deeper than that.

Best Start Possible – Jermaine Gresham v. NO

Does anyone actually remember that Gresham was once a TE1 during his time in Cincinnati? Yes, Gresham played for the Bengals. In 2012, after posting 737 yards with five TDs on 64 receptions, the former first-round pick finished as the 11th-best fantasy tight end. After a slow start this season (15 catches in first nine games), he has come on strong lately with 17 receptions for 165 yards and two TDs in his last four games. With at least five receptions in the past three games, he could be in for a bump in targets with the release of WR Michael Floyd. Also, let’s not forget that the Saints DEF is not the greatest. But, surprisingly, they are only middle of the pack in defending tight ends. Look for Gresham to see plenty of targets in this potential shootout.

Quality Start – Dwayne Allen @ MIN

Ladies and gentlemen, I give you arguably the most inconsistent player in the league. Here are his catch totals from the last seven games: six, one, one, zero, five, four, zero. That is 17 catches in that time frame, but it includes games of 6-50-1 and 5-49-3. But, it also includes two catchless games and two one catch games. This week, they play in the dome at Minnesota against a strong defensive team. What makes Allen a quality start? The fact that the Vikings are only average against tight ends and they are amazing against WRs. Andrew Luck will need to throw to someone. Minnesota has already given up games of 9-101-0 to Chicago’s tight ends and 5-107-1 to Washington’s tight ends. Allen has a chance for another big game.

Worst Start Possible –  Coby Fleener @ ARI

So, quietly, Fleener is currently the 9th-best tight end this season. But, in a league of what have you done for me lately, Fleener falls a little short. He may actually be on the same level as Allen in terms of inconsistency. In the last three, he has 10 catches (14 targets), 151 yards and zero TDs. He has only two games all season with eight or more targets. One of those games, he finished with two catches for 29 yards. The other was a line of 7-109-1 on 11 targets. It is hard to predict Fleener’s production, especially against the Cardinals, the toughest team against TEs. In standard scoring, no team’s tight ends have posted more than six points and only one team has scored a TD (Miami Dolphins). Against the Cards, tight ends only average 8.6 yards per catch. Fleener does not have a good matchup.

Not a Good Start – Charles Clay v. CLE

This has the definition of trap game written all over it. You would think starting any Bills player against the winless Browns would make sense. But, it does not make sense to start Clay. Even in this plus matchup, it will be the RBs and big names on the team that will make the impact. Clay had good matchups earlier in the season against the Jets, Rams, 49ers and Jaguars. Combined, he posted 17 receptions for 169 yards and ZERO TDs. He is just not a good start and a good fantasy option playing in that run-first offense. I know, it is hard not to start Clay given the fact that the Browns are the worst defensively against the position. The Browns have given up 11 TDs to TEs and an average of 10.8 fantasy points per game to the position each week. Unfortunately, this will not be the game that make people believe in Clay once again.

*Have a player or position question you would like me to talk about? Follow me on Twitter @JSorensen119 and let me know.