Warning Signals for RB/WR/TE - Week 6

October 10, 2018

Martin Konstantinov examines skill position players who have been busts or overvalued in 2018 heading into Week 6. These RB, WR, or TE could be cuts, drops or trade candidates in fantasy football leagues.

Every year, certain players are highly drafted in drafts by fantasy owners due to the belief that they will vastly outperform expectations throughout the season. Oftentimes, these players carry a significant amount of hype due to breakout potential, elite status, or lack of alternative options on their teams.

However, with every player that does meet the threshold for good performance, there seem to be several similar players that fail to live up to the lofty expectations placed on them by fantasy owners. Whether the players are drafted at the beginning, middle, or end of drafts, not living up to the draft capital spent on them is one of the weekly dilemmas for fantasy owners.

Because fantasy owners tend to hold on to players that they believe in for too long, it is important to recognize warning signals from players early on so that the players can be removed from lineups and the damage of their poor performances can be mitigated. Let's take a look at some players at each of the skill positions who have shown some worrying signs this week. Fantasy owners should proceed with caution with the following players.

Warning Signals - RB/WR/TE

Jamaal Williams (RB, GB)

Jamaal Williams started the season as the clear workhorse in the Green Bay Packers offense. However, game flow and the return of both Aaron Jones (two-game suspension) and Ty Montgomery at the start of the season has limited Williams' ability to get consistent touches on a weekly basis. Williams only has had one game with double-digit carries in the last three weeks and has 22 rushing attempts over that time period. Although the second-year pro still logged in the most snaps out of any Packers running back this past week, Williams still only had six rushes and two receptions on the night. Yes, a part of the problem is the game script in the past few weeks, as the team has often had to play from behind and rely on Aaron Rodgers to provide the big plays in the team's offense. Hopefully, the Packers can get back to winning ways soon. Unfortunately, that may mean an increase in carries for Aaron Jones and not Williams, making him a worthy drop candidate going forward.

Javorius Allen (RB, BAL)

Surprisingly, Javorius Allen was a very big contributor to the Ravens offense over the first three weeks of the season. Although his yardage totals were far from consistent or plentiful, Allen still found the end-zone four times in the first three weeks of the season. Clearly, Allen had a role in the team's offense that centered around work in the red-zone. However, over the last few weeks, Allen's red-zone production has dried up. Unfortunately, his yardage totals have remained relatively low, killing his fantasy value outside of the deepest league. While it is clear that Allen still has a role on the team, the Ravens prefer Alex Collins at running back and are in no rush to boost Allen's workload. If you were able to start Allen at the start of the year, you made a good decision. However, at this point he is a touchdown-dependent option at the position with minimal upside despite his hot start to the year.

Larry Fitzgerald (WR, ARI)

Injuries have completely derailed the start to Larry Fitzgerald's 2018 season. With his hamstring and back both being affected, Fitzgerald has struggled to have the same reliable production that fantasy owners have gotten used to over the past few seasons. Additionally, the Cardinals offense has taken a step back following the retirement of quarterback Carson Palmer and head coach Bruce Arians. Fitzgerald had over 100 receptions in each of his last three years, but with a paltry 17 receptions for 176 yards so far this year it is not looking good for Fitzy. He's worth keeping on your bench in case he turns around his form, but there is no way fantasy owners should start Fitzgerald for the foreseeable future.

Marvin Jones Jr. (WR, DET)

The Lions passing offense has been on fire so far this season, with wide receivers Golden Tate and Kenny Golladay producing at a very high level on the field and for fantasy owners. Additionally, Marvin Jones has been a very dependable option for the Lions this year, with at least 50 yards in each of his first four games this year. Through the first five weeks, Jones has three touchdowns as well, setting himself up for quite the nice season. However, last week Jones only had one reception for eight yards (yes, it was a touchdown catch). Jones looks to be quite a solid option for fantasy owners - that has never been in question. The warning signal is more geared towards his upside. It seems as if Golden Tate will be a reception vacuum and Kenny Golladay is slowly emerging as the team's big-play threat and red-zone weapon. Therefore, the weekly upside that Jones had all last year is slowly decreasing. Jones projects as a solid flex option going forward on a great passing offense; however, his weekly upside is limited as a result of the presence of other options on the team.

Mike Gesicki (TE, MIA)

Although he was a high draft pick this year that head coach Adam Gase promised to get involved early in the team's offense, rookie tight end Mike Gesicki is still adjusting to the demands of the NFL as a tight end. Gesicki only has eight receptions for 77 yards so far this season despite featuring as one of quarterback Ryan Tannehill's top options. Therefore, it is safe to assume that Gesicki is still going to take some time to improve to a weekly fantasy starter at tight end. Unfortunately, this mitigates Gesicki's fantasy value for the rest of this season at the least - he may have some great games this year, but his week-to-week consistency hasn't been there this year and likely won't be there going forward.

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