September 30, 2017

Top 10 potential lineup busts for Week 4 of the 2017 fantasy football season. Justin Carter lists players to avoid as underperformers and disappointments.

We're about to reach the quarter-mark of the 2017 NFL season and the fantasy football picture still feels unsettled. For example: is Jordan Howard going to live up to his ADP? Uhh, maybe! Were Brandin Cooks' first two weeks of usage a fluke and this is what we get moving foward? Hmm, I don't know! It did feel a little like we turned a corner this past week, though, and that offense is back. But was it too back? No way that the Jaguars, for example, do THAT again (at least, not until their next London game).

Let's get you ready for Week 4. I've looked through all the games and come up with 10 players who make me feel uncomfortable this week for various reasons. We'll also look at how last week's bust picks went. Spoiler: Dez Bryant needs to stop salvaging terrible games with touchdown catches.

Alright, let's get going. First, my recap:

Week 3 Recap!

Yep, Busted.

Jermaine Kearse had three catches for 42 yards. Nice per-catch numbers, but not good fantasy numbers. Jason Witten only had one catch for three yards as Arizona's defense continued its strong play against tight ends.

Look, I Know They Salvaged Good Fantasy Days But The Bust Signs Were There.

LeSean McCoy was shut down on the ground like I expected, but he added seven catches for 48 yards. In standard, you feel fine about having played him even if 6.9 points isn't what you wanted, but in PPR you probably felt pretty good about him. Leonard Fournette had another high volume, not the highest yardage game, but he got the Jaguars into the end zone. DeAndre Hopkins was targeted less, but he still caught seven balls for 76 yards. It isn't exactly what you wanted from it, but it was fine.

Dez Bryant gets his own paragraph. Two catches. 12 yards. Twice Bryant has been on this list and twice he scored a touchdown in an otherwise bad game. I'm done predicting things for you, Dez.

Nope, Did Not Bust.

Oh boy. I was really weak on that Titans/Seahawks game, so I put Russell Wilson and Marcus Mariota down as busts. Wilson won me a fantasy match-up and had an incredibly efficient day. Same for Tyrod Taylor, who avoided turning the ball over. It was a good week for a lot of quarterbacks. Jordan Howard had a monster game and I benched him and I AM NOT TALKING MORE ABOUT HIM.

Sigh. Okay, now that we have that out of the way, let's look at ten players who will not be great in Week 4.

Top 10 Busts - NFL Week 4

Kirk Cousins (Quarterback, Washington Redskins)

Cousins finally got it together in Week 3, but he goes on the road in Week 4 against a Kansas City defense that held Philip Rivers to no scores and forced three interceptions. Though the Chiefs are giving up 257.3 passing yards per game in 2017, they're only giving up an average of 13.3 fantasy points to quarterbacks. That factors in a game against Tom Brady. Signs point to Cousins doing whatever the opposite of rebounding is this week.

Jameis Winston (Quarterback, Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

The Giants offense has struggled in 2017, but their defense has been better. Their defense gives up pretty middle-of-the-road numbers to the quarterback position in terms of fantasy points, but they held Carson Wentz to under 200 yards last week and have been effective at limiting passing yards. Winston is a risky play this week.

Isaiah Crowell (Running Back, Cleveland Browns)

I officially jumped off the Crowell bandwagon last week and traded him away in my home league. He had a season-high 44 rushing yards against the Colts. Granted, the Colts run defense through three games might be the team's bright spot, tied for the tenth-least rushing yards-per-game, but some of that is definitely attributable to having played the post-Johnson Cardinals and the Browns. Crowell is averaging less than three yards-per-carry and the team seems to be relying more and more on Duke Johnson Jr. in the short passing game instead of on the run game. Back away from the Crowell.

Lamar Miller (Running Back, Houston Texans)

The Titans run defense has been decent the last two weeks in terms of yardage allowed. In Week 2, they held Leonard Fournette to 40 yards...and a touchdown. In Week 3, they held Chris Carson to 34 yards...and a receiving touchdown. With Lamar Miller's usage trending down as D'Onta Foreman takes more snaps for the team, it's highly likely that Miller doesn't get the red zone looks needed to score that touchdown, which should leave him looking at a low-yardage game.

Ameer Abdullah (Running Back, Detroit Lions)

Another season of Lions football and another season of the run game not materializing. Abdullah leads the team in carries by a wide margin over Theo Riddick (who didn't receive a single carry in Week 3), but does it mean much in terms of his fantasy value? The Vikings are the third-best team against the run in the NFL through three games and Abdullah is coming off a disappointing outing against Atlanta.

Amari Cooper (Wide Receiver, Oakland Raiders)

I know projecting a player as talented as Cooper to have a second-straight bust game (one catch for six yards against Washington) seems like a stretch, but a counterpoint here: the Denver defense. Denver is allowing just over 200 passing yards each game. Despite Michael Crabtree outplaying him at times, Cooper is still the Raiders top receiver. Here are the yardage numbers that teams number-one  receivers have done against Denver: Keenan Allen- 35 yards, Dez Bryant- 59 yards, Jordan Matthews- 61 yards. I don't think Cooper has another six yard game, but the Broncos aren't going to let him beat them.

Terrelle Pryor Sr. (Wide Receiver, Washington Redskins)

Pryor is on here for the same reason Cousins is--the Chiefs defense. Kansas City's defense gives up 36.5 points-per-game to wide receivers, but Washington will likely spread that around, especially now that Josh Doctson--who has a 52 yard touchdown catch in Week 3--might starting seeing targets. Pryor has potential, but the Chiefs could make it hard for him to find room to work with.

Pierre Garcon (Wide Receiver, San Francisco 49ers)

Garcon is the top receiver on the 49ers. The 49ers are playing the Cardinals. It stands to reason that Garcon will be defended by Patrick Peterson for most of this game. If that happens, don't expect the 49ers to even look Garcon's way. Dez Bryant wasn't targeted last week while guarded by Peterson.

Marcedes Lewis (Tight End, Jacksonville Jaguars)

Okay, look. All logic dictates that you DO NOT PLAY MARCEDES LEWIS. Part of you might say but he had three touchdowns last week and someone has to grab the Allen Robinson targets. Okay, but is that someone an aging tight end who hasn't been fantasy relevant since, what, 2010? We don't need advanced stats or anything here to say that Lewis is more than likely return to his pre-London numbers.

Evan Engram (Tight End, New York Giants)

Tampa Bay held Kyle Rudolph to four yards last week. They held Zach Miller to 17 yards in Week 2. The Giants offense has struggled. This seems like one of the more obvious bust picks (which, of course, means I'm going to somehow be very wrong about it).

More Week 4 Lineup Prep