RADIO
Welcome, RotoBallers! If you do not know me, my name is Brandon and I write both The First-Serve and The Kick-Off for Tennis and Soccer respectively. If you have not checked those out, make sure you do! It is the return of the NHL season which means it's time to sharpen our MLB skills and partake in NHL DFS! As always, I'll give you the best tools to succeed and the info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel Tuesday, 18th, 2023 at 7:00 PM EST. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets!
If you have any questions on today's slate, bankroll management, GPP strategy, Cash game strategy, or anything else don’t hesitate to email me at [email protected] or via Twitter @df_solutions or in our premium slack chat. Good luck, RotoBallers!
NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 4/18/23
The 2022-2023 National Hockey League regular season has come and gone. We had our fair share of surprise teams failing and succeeding, as well as, a few big trade splashes throughout the season. With the closure of the regular season, we welcome another run of postseason play and content. During the playoffs, it is much more common to find low-scoring and heavy-hitting games. Keep in mind that teams that showcase a high aptitude to score goals, will play much tighter and be a bit pickier with their shots. Tonight we have a 4-game slate with no teams playing on a back-to-back. The currently live top-3 highest implied team totals are: Colorado with 3.6, New Jersey with 3.5 and Vegas with 3.4. I will do my best to guide you through this four-game slate on DraftKings and FanDuel starting at 7:00 p.m. EST.
DISCLOSURE: Make sure to monitor the news feed and play at your own risk
Goalies
Ilya Samsonov-DK $8K || FD $7.8K
Opponent - Tampa Bay Lightning
Samsonov looks to be the netminder for the playoffs with teammates Matt Murray just starting to skate and Joseph Woll not reliable. Throughout the season, Samsonov went 27-10-5 with a 2.33 Goals Against Average and a 0.919 Save Percentage. He is also in the top half of goalies in Expected Goals Saved Above Average when comparing his last ten games to his season average. The Lightning hobbled into the postseason and if not for a strong first half of the season, they may not have made playoffs. In their last five away games, they have been outscored 13 to 21. No matter what, Tampa is a high-octane offense and Samsonov will see plenty of shots in a game that will be back and forth. With the Maple Leafs crashing out of the playoffs in the first round for the last six years and with a 2-1 record against the Lightning in the regular season, they hope to change the first-round curse.
Others To Consider (Cash/GPP): Georgiev (DK $8.2K || FD $8.3K), Brossoit (DK $7.8K || FD $8K)
Centers
J.T. Compher-DK $5.1K || FD $5.2K
Opponent - Seattle Kraken
Many will be on star center Nathan MacKinnon when the Avalanche are brought into the conversation, however, second-line center J.T. Compher has had an undervalued season. Compher is currently having a season to remember, having set a new career high in assists and points – 35 and 52 respectively –. After the Avalanche lost Nazem Kadri to Free Agency they were lost without a center to fill the void behind MacKinnon and Compher has done just that. He is more of a defensive two-way center, however, he is getting Artturi Lehkonen on his line after his return from injury. This will further boost the chances of Compher producing against a lackluster Kraken second line and Compher is still centering the top power-play unit, giving him exposure to MacKinnon and Rantanen. In Compher’s last five games in the regular season, he had 1 goal, 1 assist, 6 shots and 4 blocked shots. Depending on your roster build and which high-end center you go after tonight, Compher makes for a great one-off or a mini stack.
Auston Matthews- DK $8.9K || FD $9K
Opponent - Tampa Bay Lightning
It would be unsurprising to see Matthews as one of the highest-owned centers on the slate. Matthews is centering one of the deadliest power-play units in the league and he is one of the best even-strength scoring centers. Over the season, he finished with 40 goals and 45 assists in 74 appearances setting up as his second most-successful season, behind last year where he set career highs in goals, assists and points – 60, 46 and 106 respectively –. As mentioned earlier, the Lightning stumbled into the postseason with terrible defense and a shell of their former offense. With Matthews desperate to break the first-round curse for the Maple Leafs, it is expected that he comes flying out of the gates for Game 1 at home. In two games against the Lightning in the regular season, Matthews had 1 goal, 1 assist and 14 shots.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Eichel (DK $6.9K || FD $6.9K), Dubois (DK $5.7K || FD $6K)
Wings
Alex Killorn - DK $4.5K || FD $4.4K
Opponent - Toronto Maple Leafs
On the other side of the ice, we have Alex Killorn. When someone mentions the Tampa Bay Lightning, players like Stamkos, Kucherov, Point, Hedman, Vasilevskiy come to your mind and even Cirelli. However, Killorn is having a career year this year with career highs in goals, assists and points – 27, 37 and 64 respectively –. The winger for the majority of the season bounced around between the second and third lines with a tiny peak on the first line. However, the bulk of his production and usefulness came from the power-play once he was moved to the first power-play unit again. Killorn is the sole productive big forward for the Lightning and they will use him as much as possible in a series with the Maple Leafs. In his last five appearances in the regular season, he had 3 goals, 2 assists and 11 shots.
Mark Stone- DK $5.4K || FD $5K
Opponent - Winnipeg Jets
Vegas is entering its 5th postseason in just 6 seasons in the league which is quite remarkable for a young expansion team. They did this without one of their star wingers for half of the season too. However, Stone is back and he looks to be settling onto the third line to start. However, it would not be surprising at all to see how he will play with Eichel and Marchessault on the top line. Nevertheless, the Jets have struggled and been inconsistent all season, leaving plenty of space for Stone to produce. In his 43 games this season, he had 17 goals and 21 assists and in his last five games played in the regular season he had 1 goal, 5 assists and 7 shots.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Rodrigues (DK $4.6K || FD $4.6K), Mercer (DK $4.3K || FD $4.9K)
Defense
Samuel Girard- DK $3.6K || FD $4.1K
Opponent - Seattle Kraken
Girard’s minutes will be heavily reduced with an expected healthy blue line, however, he will maintain his role on the second power-play for the Avalanche. In his last five games of the regular season, he had 2 assists, 9 shots and 10 blocked shots. The Seattle Kraken is a major question mark heading into their first postseason in just their second season in the league. However, throughout the regular season, they played playoff-style hockey with pinches and tight quarter hockey. This could play in favor of Girard who thinks defense first, always looking to fill up the shooting lanes.
Ryan Graves - DK $3.8K || FD $4.3K
Opponent - New York Rangers
There are a few options to choose from for your second defender. However, Graves was playing lights out in the final games of the regular season. In the final five games, Graves had 2 assists, 14 shots and 13 blocked shots. Arguably one of the most exciting matchups between the Devils and the Rangers will be a tightly contested matchup. It will provide plenty of opportunities for Graves to rack up peripherals, not to include these two teams being in a heated rivalry.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Morrissey (DK $5.8K || FD $5.7K), Hedman (DK $5.4K || FD $6K)
NHL DFS Top Power Plays and Stacks
- COL1
- TOR1
Brandon's Stack of the Day
- COL: Lehkonen-Compher-Nichushkin
Chalk Stack
- VGK: Stone-Eichel-Marchessault
Sneaky Stack
- NJ: Mercer-Hughes-Bratt
