The Good News Bears? Have Caleb Williams and the Chicago Offense Turned the Corner?

October 11, 2024

The Chicago Bears and Caleb Williams have won two games in a row after starting off terribly in 2024. Have the Chicago Bears turned it around? Fantasy football outlooks for the Chicago Bears in 2024.

The Chicago Bears ushered in a new era with the use of their No. 1 overall pick to draft quarterback Caleb Williams from USC. The Heisman Trophy winner had an illustrious college career, throwing for over 10,000 yards and scoring 120 total touchdowns. He authored some legendary moments in CFB history.

He did not start the 2024 NFL season well. In his first two games, he didn't crack double-digit fantasy points. He threw for just 93 yards and no touchdowns and fumbled the ball in Week 1 and tossed two interceptions in Week 2. His team started 0-2, and he was a big part of the problem.

He's seemed to turn it around since then though, and the Bears squad seemed to take a step forward. They're now 3-2 as a team and the offense has improved -- the defense has been consistently dominant since last season. So have Caleb Williams and the Chicago offense turned the corner?

Have The Chicago Bears Turned The Corner?

Maybe. It's important to note that they faced three of the league's worst defenses in the past three weeks. Sensationalist media often tries to spin narratives that players or teams have "completely turned it around" over the course of a few games when the reality is that the quality of competition often comprises a large piece of the puzzle that is the truth.

Offensive and Defensive DVOA of 2024 NFL teams through week 5.

Vikings defense is ridiculously insane. Browns offense not so much. https://t.co/e6Lik1zkG0 pic.twitter.com/QQxjAQ6UCW

— Automatic (@automaticnba) October 8, 2024

The chart above attempts to take each down-and-distance situation, see how a team does, then compare it to average. The Bears' last three opponents have been the Indianapolis Colts, the Los Angeles Rams and the Carolina Panthers. The Rams and Panthers have especially horrendous defenses this season.

Week 6 #NFL SOS Adjustments!
- Commanders and Bills have faced bad defenses
- Bengals have the best offense
- Eagles defense is bad, after facing bad offenses
- Rams are simply not a good team
- Giants offense is solid pic.twitter.com/TxHv7FI5Yy

— Sam Burch (@sburch323) October 8, 2024

Chicago has had one of the easiest schedules for any offense in the league so far. A comparison of Williams' stat lines vs. the defense's DVOA is pretty telling. He's played reasonably against awful defenses and terribly against competent defensive squads.

The good news is that the rookie and his new team will face the Jacksonville Jaguars, Washington Commanders, and Arizona Cardinals in their next three contests. It's a cakewalk. That part of their schedule will look great, and their defense should dominate the Jaguars and Cardinals, who have shaky offensive lines.

The Bears' defense entering Week 6:

Scoring defense - 17 ppg (5th)
Opponents' yards - 294.8 (7th)
Takeaways - 11 (5th)
Pass defense - 174.0 (6th)
Turnover % - 18.3% - (3rd)
Average drive time - 2.26 (2nd)
Pressure % - 29.7% (7th) pic.twitter.com/zqJbtGTylw

— Chris Emma (@CEmma670) October 10, 2024

Chicago's offense is helped massively by the turnovers the defense generates. Against more disciplined offenses, it may be tougher to succeed, and their offense will suffer proportionally, though the low quality of upcoming defenses will help.

The schedule takes a 180 turn and becomes brutally hard from Week 10 onwards. The Windy City's crew will face the New England Patriots, Green Bay Packers twice, Minnesota Vikings twice, Detroit Lions twice, and the San Francisco 49ers. That's extremely tough. It could get very ugly.

Life isn’t easy in the NFC North. It’s based off 5 weeks, but the Bears have the toughest remaining strength of schedule.

Bears first division game is in Week 11. pic.twitter.com/dCyf5cyp91

— Joe Ostrowski (@JoeOstrowski) October 9, 2024

Though the NFL is unpredictable, the Bears seem to be following a simple blueprint, so we can extrapolate that. They'll look solid to great over the next three weeks, and then soon after, it will all seem to come crashing down. If the future opposing defenses they will face can remain relatively healthy, they'll make life hell for Williams.

At a minimum, those games will tell us more about the true state of the Bears offense. There are huge gaps in competition in the NFL. It's important to view players and offenses in the context of the defenses they've faced. San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Jauan Jennings decimated the Rams, for example, but was a non-factor in Weeks 5-6.

Caleb Williams Fantasy Football Outlook

Williams performed reasonably against poor defenses but pretty terribly against the others. He was awful in Week 1 and didn't even crack 100 passing yards. He threw two picks in Week 2 against a Houston Texans defense that's actually pretty poor against the pass. Those were the only competent defenses he faced.

This Caleb Williams play would’ve gone for a 70 yard touchdown in the pac 12 . He’s playing against grown men with families so it’s an interception pic.twitter.com/b9mSJW37kC

— John (@iam_johnw) September 16, 2024

It's very easy to forget just how bad he was early on. He probably returns to a similar level of play against the tough defenses.

D.J. Moore Fantasy Football Outlook

D.J. Moore has established himself as the No. 1 target in this offense and is the clear leader in targets through five games, with 42. He has 294 yards, the most of any pass-catcher on the team, and three touchdowns, more than the rest combined. He's the guy to roster for this offense in fantasy.

CALEB WILLIAMS DOT

DJ Moore REVENGE GAME

pic.twitter.com/8Gs7K6og5v

— Barstool Chicago (@barstoolchicago) October 6, 2024

He's a beast, but we already knew that. Given the general state of the offense and its splits against good vs bad defenses, he may struggle with consistency. He's a must-start for now, but he may have an uncomfortable amount of bust games. We'll find out if he's worth sitting for the toughest matchups later on.

Keenan Allen Fantasy Football Outlook

He hasn't looked like himself so far this season, and it's fair to believe that he's struggling with lingering injury issues. He described the heel injury that kept him out of two games as a "wear-and-tear" issue, and his snaps increased from 68% to 81% from Week 4 to Week 5, so it's possible he's being workload-limited.

WR Leaders in Average Separation Score (2024)
+ per @FantasyPtsData

1. Adonai Mitchell (0.323)
2. Jordan Addison (0.310)
3. Brandon Aiyuk (0.253)
4. Keenan Allen (0.250)
5. Jameson Williams (0.246) https://t.co/ZqzZvgpheY

— Fantasy Points Data (@FantasyPtsData) October 10, 2024

It's worth noting that he's still separating well. The problem will remain Williams. If he doesn't throw for over 200 yards, one or two of the receivers will probably have a bad day. Allen is a fringe WR3/FLEX for now.

Rome Odunze Fantasy Football Outlook

For now, Rome Odunze isn't startable outside of deeper leagues. Even against poor defenses, he hasn't been consistent. As long as Moore and Allen are healthy, Odunze is a bench stash until things change, if they do.

D'Andre Swift Fantasy Football Outlook

Perhaps the most matchup-dependent Bears player, D'Andre Swift, seems to crush terrible defenses and crumble against more disciplined groups. His PPR fantasy point totals are 5.0, 8.2, 6.2, 29.50, and 20.00. Blinding sunlit days vs pitch-black nights. He should still be started every game. Perhaps Williams will throw to him more against tough defenses.

There's not much depth at the RB position in many leagues, so managers don't have much of a choice, anyway.

Roschon Johnson Fantasy Football Outlook

The two-touchdown game in Week 5 was nice, but for now, he's a handcuff. He may see more work against teams with better run-stuffing play because Swift is not a good between-the-tackles runner.

Cole Kmet Fantasy Football Outlook

This will be the shortest fantasy football outlook ever. Start Cole Kmet if you own him because the tight end position is terrible this year. He's the TE6 in PPR.

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