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Hello RotoBallers and welcome to a very special Thanksgiving Day edition of Break The Slate! I appreciate you joining me in our season-long quest to find the best plays at each position for every DraftKings Main Slate.
Like turkey, dressing, and in-laws, the NFL's Thanksgiving Day slate has turned into an annual tradition. This year's football feast offers us three enticing matchups to choose from on the DraftKings holiday slate! With only three games to work with, it always pays to be a bit contrarian in lineup construction, which is reflected in a couple of this article's selections.
These DraftKings lineup recommendations are based on matchups, projected DK points and ownership, overall upside/talent levels, and opportunity, as well as factors such as Vegas odds, home-field advantage, and more. There are quite a few great plays available on DK for the Thanksgiving Day slate. Also, be sure to also check out our weekly FanDuel DFS lineup picks and lots of other great NFL DFS articles and NFL DFS tools to help you win big! Good luck with your DraftKings DFS lineups – let's Break The Slate together!
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DraftKings Quarterbacks - Thanksgiving Day DFS Picks
Josh Allen - BUF @ DET ($8,000)
Buffalo’s gunslinger comes into the Thanksgiving slate off his worst performance of the season against the Cleveland Browns, a game in which he managed just 12.6 DK points.
Due to the weather in New York, the Bills played the Browns at Ford Field, so Allen and the boys will be chillin’ in Motown all week. We can expect a bounce back in this trip to Ford, as the Lions present the overall fantasy QB2 with a matchup that should provide a true Thanksgiving Day feast.
While Dan Campbell’s bunch has shown some heart and #Grit in recent weeks, this is a defense that still has very real limitations. Detroit ranks dead last in the NFL in DK points allowed to the QB position and grades out 24th in Pass Defense DVOA this season. Despite the fact that he didn’t quite look like himself last week, Allen should take full advantage of the Lions’ weaknesses in this one.
Dak Prescott NYG @ DAL ($6,200)
The New York Giants have been a nice story under first-year HC Brian Daboll, but a loss to the Detroit Lions last week illustrates that there’s a bit of smoke and mirrors at play with Big Blue.
The G-Men’s last four games have been against: Detroit, Houston, Seattle, and Jacksonville. Despite that soft stretch, New York still ranks just 24th in the league in Total Defense DVOA and is tied for the fewest INTs in the NFL with only two.
Since returning from an extended injury absence, Dak Prescott has the ‘Boys' offense rolling and he’s now scored 20 or more DK points in three straight. Dallas comes in off a 40-3 destruction of Minnesota and I expect Dak to pick apart the Giants’ benign secondary in this one.
DraftKings Running Backs - Thanksgiving Day DFS Picks
Dalvin Cook - NE @ MIN ($7,400)
On a short slate such as this one, we must be willing to go against the grain in some spots. Dalvin Cook represents a nice way to grab some ownership leverage with a talented player.
Many will shy away from Cook here due to the difficult matchup against a New England Patriots unit that has a well-deserved reputation for being tough against the run.
Although the Pats grade out 13th in Rush Defense DVOA (good, but not great), I'm willing to bet on Cook's talent over the matchup. As of this writing, I have the Vikes' back projected as the fifth-highest-owned RB on the Thanksgiving slate. Those are numbers I'll take for a player that's explosive and averaging 19.5 touches per game over Minnesota's last five.
Jamaal Williams - BUF @ DET ($5,900)
It’s fair to label Jamaal Williams a “touchdown-dependant RB”, but the thing is…he keeps scoring touchdowns every week. While the threat of D’Andre Swift is always looming, Dan Campbell and this Lions staff have shown that they simply love and trust Williams.
He’s averaging 15.9 carries per game on the season and 19 totes per game over their last three, despite Swift’s recent return to the lineup. Williams has now posted 20 or more DK points on four occasions this season.
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DraftKings Wide Receivers - Thanksgiving Day DFS Picks
Amon-Ra St. Brown - BUF @ DET ($6,600)
The clear alpha of a receiving corps that’s both injury-depleted and talent deficient, The Sun God is a crisp route-runner and target monster. Finally fully healthy, St. Brown has garnered a ridiculous 37.8% team target share over Detroit’s last three, a mark that trails just Davante Adams since Week 8.
So, we can expect Jared Goff to look St. Brown’s way early and often this Thursday, and we can even bump his already-significant target projection due to the expected game environment against the explosive Bills.
The matchup is, admittedly, a tough one. However, this Bills secondary has been banged up and not quite as formidable as we’ve seen in the past. Buffalo ranks 22nd in the NFL in both receiving yards (1,616) and receiving TDs (10) allowed to the WR position this year.
Isaiah Hodgins - NYG @ DAL ($3,000)
The Giants’ receiving corps has been a revolving door of ineffectiveness this season, as New York has struggled to keep wideouts on the field and productive. This led the G-Men to claim Isaiah Hodgins off waivers from the Buffalo Bills at the beginning of November.
Former Bills’ OC and current Giants’ HC Brian Daboll is very familiar with Hodgins from his time in Buffalo and he’s wasted no time inserting him into Big Blue’s rotation. The 2020 sixth-round pick has responded by catching all five of his targets for 70 yards in his two games with NY.
His role could increase even more on Thanksgiving, as Giants’ rookie Wan’Dale Robinson was seen on crutches after NY’s Week 11 loss to Detroit and has reportedly torn his ACL. With Robinson out of the lineup against the Cowboys - and DFS players immediately turning to Darius Slayton - Hodgins should be firmly on our GPP radar as a salary-saving pivot for this unique three-game Turkey Day slate.
DraftKings Tight Ends - Thanksgiving Day DFS Picks
Dalton Schultz - NYG @ DAL ($3,800)
Due to Dak Prescott’s return to the lineup coinciding with his own recovery from injury, Dalton Schultz has been a favorite in this article in recent weeks. I’m sticking with the talented Cowboys TE on this Turkey Day slate due to his significant role in this Dallas passing attack and his terrific matchup against a Giants squad that’s struggled to slow down opposing tight ends.
The G-Men grade out 31st in the NFL in DVOA defense vs. TEs. New York is allowing a massive 73.5% successful catch rate to the TE position, as well as just under 8.5 yards per target.
Schultz’s sizable role in this talented Dallas passing attack should equip him to take full advantage of this favorable matchup. Since Prescott returned to the lineup in Week 7, Schultz has averaged 6.3 targets per game, the fifth-most in the NFL at the position in that timeframe.
Dawson Knox - BUF @ DET ($3,500)
After a sluggish start to the year - something we can only assume is associated with the tragic death of his little brother just before the start of the season - Knox has slowly been earning targets again.
The big Bills TE has now been targeted 17 times over Buffalo’s last three, converting those looks for 14 catches and 152 receiving yards.
That positive momentum should continue against Detroit this week. The Lions are relinquishing 8.64 yards per target to opposing TEs and have allowed the second-most TDs in the NFL (7) to the position this season
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