X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

Target Regression Candidates: Tight End

Rishi Patel highlights several tight ends who are likely to see fewer targets in 2020 and should be avoided in your 2020 fantasy football draft.

In the NFL and fantasy football, things can change as easily as the snap of a finger from campaign to campaign. One season, somebody breaks a record, and the next, they are fighting for targets and struggling to produce.

Based on game script, chemistry, and availability of weapons, targets can fluctuate for pass-catchers. In a position like TE, targets could be hard to come by at all depending on which team you are on. Naturally, some TEs could have breakout seasons too. Nevertheless, if your last name is not Kittle, Ertz, Kelce, etc., you may have to work extra hard to snatch away targets from WRs.

Heading into 2020, there are quite a few TEs who should be due for a target regression. The small collection of tight ends who have a huge role in their offense are not affected by this, but aging veterans or those who may have to deal with new additions on the team could be in trouble in terms of their fantasy value. Let’s look at some candidates who are due for fewer targets in 2020:

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:

 

Jason Witten, Las Vegas Raiders

For this article, specifically, Jason Witten is the biggest name to probably experience a target regression. The 38-year-old returned to the Cowboys last season after a brief one-year retirement. Nevertheless, he still finished 10th among tight ends in targets with 83. For a guy who returned to the game after retirement, that’s not bad at all.

In addition, Witten compiled 63 receptions, 529 yards, 8.4 yards per catch, and four touchdowns in 16 games. This offseason, the Tennessee product decided to head West and sign with Vegas. It will be a problem for an aging veteran like Witten to produce on this team considering they have young wideouts like Henry Ruggs III and Tyrell Williams, along with a breakout tight end in Darren Waller.

Last season, Waller accumulated an incredible 90 receptions, 117 targets, 1,145 yards, 12.7 yards per catch, and three touchdowns in his fourth-year of playing in the NFL. Coming off a proven year, Waller has solidified his role as the TE1 on the Raiders and Witten will now be a TE2 on the team who should see a notable decrease in targets.

 

Greg Olsen, Seattle Seahawks

Like Jason Witten, 35-year-old veteran Greg Olsen played admirably in his last season with the Carolina Panthers in 2019. The TE notched 82 targets, which ranked 11th among NFL tight ends. The Miami product finished with 52 receptions, 597 yards, 11.5 yards per catch, and two touchdowns in 14 games last year.

Like Witten, Olsen decided to head West this season too, as in Seattle. Now on a new team, Olsen’s role is better than that of Witten, as he will be the TE1 heading into the season, but he will nevertheless have to fight with WRs Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf, along with other TEs Will Dissly and Jacob Hollister, for targets.

Dissly dealt with injuries the past two seasons, but when healthy, he proved to be serviceable for QB Russell Wilson. The TE grabbed 23 receptions, 27 targets, 262 yards, 11.4 yards per catch, and four touchdowns in six games in 2019. This means there should be no doubts about the 24-year-old’s ability to play.

Hollister also amassed 41 receptions, 59 targets, 349 yards, 8.5 yards per catch, and three touchdowns in 11 games last season. This TE is also only 26, so if Olsen experiences any setbacks or struggles on the field, these two TEs can capably fill in for him. Expect Olsen to have a decrease in targets due to other pass-catchers and while also needing to build rapport with Russell Wilson.

 

Jimmy Graham, Chicago Bears

Jimmy Graham proved to fantasy owners last season that he isn’t what he used to be in terms of being a dominant player. His 2019 season with Green Bay was one of the worst statistical campaigns he endured during his 10-year career. Last season, the TE finished 18th in targets among tight ends with 60. Nevertheless, that was the second-lowest target total of his career, only ahead of his rookie season.

In addition, Graham posted 38 receptions, 447 yards, 11.8 yards per catch, and three touchdowns. He recorded his second-lowest career reception and yard total as well, only ahead of his rookie season again. For this aging veteran who is now on the Chicago Bears, targets may come at the beginning of the season, but the Bears drafted another tight end in Cole Kmet out of Notre Dame for a reason. Therefore, Graham’s time in the Windy City may not be as impactful because of his age and the fact that a young tight end could cut into his production at any time in 2020. If last year was any indication, Graham could see a similar number of targets to 2019 or even end up with less considering the Bears generally have better receivers than the 2019 Packers.

 

Cameron Brate and O.J. Howard, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

For Tampa Bay tight ends Cameron Brate and O.J. Howard, who finished 22nd and 25th in targets among tight ends last season with 56 and 53 targets, respectively, the goal of getting more targets this season is now complicated by the presence of former Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski and the 2019 breakout of WR Chris Godwin. This is already adding to the presence of elite receiver Mike Evans.

The Bucs have plenty of mouths to feed, and their tight end position has become crowded suddenly. As if fighting with each other was not hard enough, Brate and Howard will now have to share targets with Gronkowski, who already has chemistry with QB Tom Brady.

It’s not like all three tight ends aren’t talented, but there are simply too many mouths to feed for each to get very decent production. This is also factoring in the WRs. Howard finished with 34 receptions, 53 targets (career-high), 459 yards, 13.5 yards per catch, and one touchdown last season. Brate recorded 36 receptions, 55 targets, 311 yards, 8.6 yards per catch, and four touchdowns last season.

Not only will the presence of other talented pass-catchers lower their targets, but Howard and Brate enter the season as the TE2 and TE3 on the team, respectively. Their overall fantasy values now lower as a result too.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!

More Fantasy Football Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Jacob deGrom

Being Skipped in Rotation Due to Shoulder Fatigue
Adley Rutschman

Scratched on Tuesday With Abdominal Discomfort
CBJ

Brendan Smith Joins Blue Jackets on Tryout Deal
STL

Milan Lucic Joins Blues for Tryout
DET

Red Wings Pick Up Travis Hamonic
Austin Riley

Doesn't Appear Ready to Return Any Time Soon
Aaron Judge

Unikely to Throw Normally Again This Year
Jalen McMillan

Could be Out Through Week 9 Bye
Indiana Pacers

Pacers Coach Rick Carlisle Agrees to a Multiyear Contract Extension on Tuesday
Washington Wizards

John Wall Retires After 11 NBA Seasons
Daniel Jones

Named as Colts Starting Quarterback
Jalen McMillan

Will Not Be Ready for Season Opener
Collin Sexton

Hornets Have High Hopes for Collin Sexton
Rui Hachimura

Likely to Start Season Without Contract Extension
Jaime Jaquez Jr.

Hopes to Bounce Back in 2025-26
Stephen Curry

Ready to Go for New Season
Orlando Magic

Lester Quinones Agrees to Deal With Magic
Luka Dončić

Luka Doncic Cleared to Play on Tuesday Night
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Pulled With Hamstring Tightness
MLB

Game 2 of Brewers-Cubs on Monday Postponed
Bryce Miller

to be Activated on Tuesday
Kyle Tucker

to Get Multiple Days Off
Shane Bieber

to Make Season Debut on Friday
Joe Mixon

Could Start Season on NFI List
Zack Wheeler

has Surgery to Remove Blood Clot
De'Von Achane

Unlikely to Practice This Week
Justin Jefferson

Returning to Practice
Chris Godwin

Bucs Chris Godwin Likely to Start Season on PUP List
Joe Flacco

Browns Name Joe Flacco as Their Week 1 Starter
Jalen McDaniels

Inks Deal With New Orleans
N'Faly Dante

Signs Deal With Hawks
Matthew Stafford

Practicing on Monday
Dru Smith

Agrees to Deal With Heat
Austin Dillon

Scores an Upset Victory at Richmond
William Byron

Clinches the Regular Season Championship Title at Richmond
Denny Hamlin

Pit-Road Struggles Impede Denny Hamlin's Chances of a Top Finish at Richmond
Joey Logano

Earns A Fourth-Place Finish at Richmond
Kyle Larson

Rallies to A Top-10 Finish at Richmond
Malik Nabers

Dealing With Back Injury
Khamzat Chimaev

Is The New UFC Middleweight Champion
Dricus Du Plessis

Gets Dominated At UFC 319
Aaron Pico

Suffers Knockout Loss In His UFC Debut
Lerone Murphy

Scores Stunning First-Round Knockout
Leodalis De Vries

Earns Promotion to Double-A
Nathaniel Lowe

Finalizing Deal with Boston
Geoff Neal

Suffers First-Round Knockout Loss
Ketel Marte

Arizona Could Trade Ketel Marte in the Offseason
Carlos Prates

Gets Back In The Win Column
Michael Page

Dominates At UFC 319
Jared Cannonier

Gets Outclassed
Tim Elliott

Gets Submission Win
Kai Asakura

Still Winless In The UFC
Austin Cindric

has Arguably his Best Run of the Season at Richmond
Ryan Blaney

Contends for First Richmond Win but Comes Up Short
Alex Bowman

Finishes Second but Loses Ground in Playoffs
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Sets Personal Laps-Led Record at Richmond
Chris Buescher

Falls Out of Playoffs After Miserable Richmond Run
Coby White

Bulls Not Interested in Trading Coby White
Dereck Lively II

Expected to be Ready for Camp
Brian Robinson Jr.

Commanders "Shopping" Brian Robinson Jr.
John Metchie III

Texans Trade John Metchie III to Eagles
Victor Scott II

Placed on 10-Day Injured List
Trey Hendrickson

Bengals Listening to Trade Offers for Trey Hendrickson
Marcelo Mayer

to Have Season-Ending Wrist Surgery
Samuel Basallo

Called Up From Triple-A Norfolk
J.K. Dobbins

Expected to Win Starting RB Job?
Quentin Johnston

Suffers Concussion in Preseason Loss
Jaxson Dart

Plays Well on Saturday Night
Marcus Semien

Avoids Serious Injury
Kyle Stowers

Heads to Injured List With Left-Side Strain
Zack Wheeler

Placed on Injured List With Blood Clot in Shoulder
Terry McLaurin

Commanders Optimistic Terry McLaurin Deal Can Get Done Soon
De'Von Achane

De’Von Achane Dealing With Lower-Body Injury
Luka Dončić

Luka Doncic Likely Avoids Serious Injury
Josh Hader

Unlikely to Return During Regular Season
Denny Hamlin

the Heavy Favorite to Win at Richmond
Christopher Bell

Has Been Great at Richmond
Kyle Stowers

Out Saturday With Left-Side Tightness
Tyrese Haliburton

No Longer Using a Scooter, Crutches
Ryan Blaney

Can Ryan Blaney Finally Break Through at Richmond?
Joey Logano

Will Start Last at Richmond After Practice Trouble
Chase Elliott

Lack of Top-Line Speed Hurts his DFS Potential
Kyle Larson

Recent String of Crashes Make Him a Big Risk at Richmond
William Byron

Probably Slightly Too Inconsistent at Richmond to Start for DFS
Ryan Preece

on Pole at Richmond as Playoff Deadline Looms Closer
Brad Keselowski

Probably the Best RFK Racing DFS Option at Richmond
Chase Briscoe

Still Figuring Out Richmond
Chris Buescher

a Solid Choice for DFS Play, but Teammates Look Faster
Terry McLaurin

Commanders Activate Terry McLaurin From PUP List
Rashee Rice

NFL Could Reach Settlement Before Hearing
Joe Mixon

Not a Lock to be Ready For Week 1
Haywood Highsmith

Dealt to Brooklyn on Friday
Amir Coffey

Signs One-Year Deal With Bucks
Khamzat Chimaev

A Favorite At UFC 319
Dricus Du Plessis

Set For His Third Title Defense
Aaron Pico

Set For UFC Debut
Lerone Murphy

Looks To Remain Undefeated
Geoff Neal

Looks For His Second Win In A Row
Michael Page

Set For His Second Middleweight Bout
Jared Cannonier

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Kai Asakura

Looks For His First UFC Win
Tim Elliott

Set To Open Up UFC 309 Main Card
CBJ

Mikael Pyyhtia Re-Signs With Blue Jackets for One Year
UTA

Caleb Desnoyers Expected to Miss 12 Weeks After Wrist Procedure
Tyson Foerster

on Track to Be Healthy for Season Opener
NHL

Olivier Rodrigue Signs KHL Deal
NHL

Emil Bemstrom to Join Swiss Team
Payton Pritchard

Reportedly Moving Into Starting Lineup
Kevin Durant

Rockets Not Interested in Keeping Kevin Durant with Max Extension
NBA

Isaiah Mobley Joins Turkish Team
NBA

Cole Swider Links Up with EuroLeague Powerhouse

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP