RADIO
Michael Florio's fantasy football sneaky starts, pivot plays, and post-waiver waiver pickups for Week 13 of 2024. Start 'em as under-the-radar fantasy sleepers.
Happy Thanksgiving everyone! I hope you get to celebrate with whoever you choose to and eat lots. Even more so, I hope your fantasy teams eat more than you.
Can you believe it is Thanksgiving already? We have just two weeks left in the fantasy football regular season. If you’re reading this, I take it you are still in the playoff race.
This is when those lineup decisions get magnified. With no byes hopefully, your lineup does not need many pivot options -- but if you do, I got you covered!
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Sneaky Starts and Pivot Options
If you need a QB…
C.J. Stroud can be elevated from the bench and back into the starting lineup this week. The Jaguars have allowed the second-most passing yards and second-most touchdowns. They have allowed the most fantasy PPG to opposing defenses. Stroud threw for a season-high 345 yards and 23.5 fantasy points against them in Week 4. Perhaps most importantly for Stoud, the Jags generate pressure at the fourth-lowest rate in the NFL. He’s back in play this week.
Anthony Richardson has been running more with 10 rushing attempts in each of his last two games. He’s scored 21 fantasy points in those two games just with his legs. This could be an upside week, as the Patriots are in the top 10 in passing yards and touchdowns on the year and since Week 8. They’ve allowed the most passing TDs since Week 8. The floor is low, but the upside in this matchup has him in play.
Russell Wilson gets the Bengals this week, who have allowed the third-most fantasy PPG to QBs. They have allowed a top-10 fantasy QB in three of their last four games. Additionally, the Bengals have a very high-powered offense and could put up plenty of points themselves. That could force Wilson to have to throw more than he typically does. Wilson is a good start in Week 13.
Will Levis has averaged 16.9 fantasy PPG since he returned as the starter. He is top six in yards per attempt (9.6) and passer rating (109.3) in that span. He is more for the desperate or those in two-QB leagues this week. His schedule, though, moving forward is great in facing the Jags, Bengals, Colts, and Jags again. He can be a very useful QB2 in two QB leagues.
If you need an RB…
Gus Edwards is set to be the Chargers starter this week with J.K. Dobbins sidelined. The Falcons are middle of the pack, but the Chargers run the ball on 42 percent of their plays, which is the ninth-highest in the NFL. That means Edwards should see enough volume to be an RB2 or flex option. He also has a good chance of scoring a touchdown. Kimani Vidal is more explosive than Edwards, so he could be more involved to help replace that aspect that Dobbins tends to bring. The floor is low, but he brings big-play upside.
Jeremy McNichols could be in play this week with both of the Commanders RBs banged up. Austin Ekeler is in concussion protocol, while Brian Robinson Jr. has been in and out of the lineup with a knee and hamstring injury. He exited after an awkward tackle last week and touched the ball just two more times before exiting for good. Ekeler has averaged double-digit fantasy PPG when Robinson plays and that could be McNichols' role. If both are out, McNichols becomes a strong RB2 play this week.
It hasn’t been a great recent stretch on the fantasy waiver wire, but Jeremy McNichols could be in line for a spot start at RB for the Commanders. pic.twitter.com/3q2Pfgj3RD
— Field Yates (@FieldYates) November 27, 2024
Jaylen Warren has been the RB13 in the last two weeks and has outproduced Najee Harris. He has averaged 11 carries per game in his last five games. He’s seen 3.4 targets per game in that span, but he has nine in his last two games. He is healthy again, getting more work, and looking like the Warren we knew and loved last season. If the Steelers are in a scorefest, or even trailing against the Bengals, his ceiling is raised as he will see more snaps and pass-game involvement. Warren needs to stop being overlooked.
Are things changing in the PIT backfield?
Last week Jaylen Warren:
season high 57% of the snaps
67% of the RZ snaps
(per @FantasyPtsData)Since Week 8 he FINALLY looks like himself:
7% explosive run rate
28% missed tackle rate
2.60 yards after contact/attempt— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) November 27, 2024
Ameer Abdullah came through last week as a top-10 RB, going for 60 total yards, five catches, and a touchdown, scoring 17.5 fantasy PPG. The matchup is much tougher this week against the Chiefs. It is the toughest matchup a RB can have. However, if Alexander Mattison and Zamir White remain out, this is a situation where volume keeps Abdullah in play. I reluctantly have to start him in a couple of spots. If you are in a similar situation, let's hope for some catches and maybe a touchdown!
If you need a WR…
The Browns receivers are all in play this week. Jerry Jeudy has averaged nine targets, six catches, 95 yards, and 17 fantasy PPG with Jameis Winston. He’s topped 70 yards and 12 fantasy points in each game. Cedric Tillman has been a bit up and down, but we have seen some truly huge fantasy performances with Winston. Elijah Moore is more of the floor play, but he has eight or more targets in three of his last four games. The Broncos are a tough secondary, but they are in the top 10 in yards allowed to receivers in the last month. The Browns' options are strong pivot plays.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling may be as boom-or-bust as they come, but the upside is there. In his last two games, he has averaged 21.3 fantasy PPG. In those two games, he has 196 yards and three touchdowns. He is the new Rashid Shaheed of this offense. The Saints could be in a high-scoring game or find themselves trailing, which tends to not only lead to more passing but also more deep shots. MVS is the type of home-run hitter you can throw in the flex and he completely flips your matchup if he hits.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling doing it all with his legs for a 71 yard TD pic.twitter.com/uWUhznMfbq
— Saints Film Room (@SaintsFilmRoom) November 17, 2024
Keon Coleman averaged 17 fantasy PPG in his last two full games. He benefited from Amari Cooper’s presence, as Cooper not only takes some defensive attention away, but it prevents the Bills from having to deploy Coleman as a pure X receiver. He can move around the field and that has benefited him. He is tied to a great QB and offense, though, which helps elevate his fantasy ceiling.
Devaughn Vele has scored double digits in three straight games. He saw nine targets and posted a season-high 80 yards last week. Vele continues to see more consistent volume and production as the No. 2 WR for Bo Nix. He is in play against the Browns, who have allowed the ninth-most fantasy PPG to receivers.
Adam Thielen returned last week, and while he did not have a great fantasy game, he looked like himself once again. Also, do not overlook David Moore, either, who had a season-high 10 targets last week. Moore’s best fantasy feature is that he is constantly on the field. While I prefer Thielen, both are in play as deeper pivot options this week against the Bucs, who have allowed the sixth-most fantasy PPG to receivers and have struggled against the position all season.
Noah Brown saw a season-high 10 targets last week. He caught six of them for 71 yards. He now has six or more targets in four of his last five games. He has topped 11 fantasy points in three of those games. The floor is low, but volume keeps him in play for those diving deeper.
If you need a TE…
Taysom Hill went for a career-high 138 rushing yards and three touchdowns while catching eight of 10 targets for 50 yards. He also threw for 18 yards and an interception, finishing with 41.52 fantasy points in his last game. You will not get those results weekly, but the Saints came out and said they will continue to deploy Hill in this fashion. That has him in play weekly. Outside of the elite tight-end options, his ceiling clears everyone at the position.
#Saints interim HC Darren Rizzi on Taysom Hill’s workload:
“I think our usage with him these last couple weeks is really what we’re kind of trying to trend towards. A little bit of everything, not too much of anything. He’s obviously a huge part of what we do… The more he’s on… pic.twitter.com/KnDIDdWPGI
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) November 27, 2024
Hunter Henry has averaged 10.9 fantasy PPG since Drake Maye took over. To put that into perspective, only seven tight ends are averaging more than that this season. He could build on that this week against the Colts, who have allowed the sixth-most fantasy PPG to tight ends. Henry is a good start, let alone a pivot option.
Jonnu Smith is the TE5 on the season in fantasy football. He is the TE1 with 19 targets in the last two weeks. He could continue to see a lot of volume this week as the Dolphins gear up to play in the cold against the Packers, who have allowed the second-fewest yards to receivers since Week 8. Smith’s run-after-catch abilities could come through in a big way this week. Stop overlooking Smith and start him.
Zach Ertz has topped 15 fantasy points in two straight games. He has topped 14 in four of his last six games. He is averaging seven targets per game in his last five games. He is tied to a good QB and offense and faces the Titans, who have done a good job of limiting receivers, so he could see more targets go his way this week. Volume and production have him in play as a pivot option.
Will Dissly has averaged 10.5 fantasy PPG since Week 7. He has scored fewer than eight fantasy points in just one of those games. A safe floor is more than most tight ends offer, let alone ones who can be had off the waiver wire. If you are diving a bit deeper at tight end this week, Dissly is in play.
Make sure to follow Michael on X, @MichaelFFlorio.
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