Should I Draft Dameon Pierce or Dalvin Cook? Fantasy Football ADP Duel For 2023 Drafts

August 25, 2023

Dameon Pierce or Dalvin Cook, which running back should you draft for 2023 fantasy football? Andrew Ball analyzes two NFL RB's with similar values, and tells you who to pick in your upcoming draft.

Welcome RotoBallers to our ADP duel comparing Dameon Pierce vs. Dalvin Cook for 2023 fantasy football drafts. Fantasy football has become a cultural phenomenon, captivating sports enthusiasts and casual fans with its unique blend of strategy and competition. As the popularity continues to soar, the tools and metrics used to gain a competitive edge have evolved.

One metric that holds immense value for fantasy football players is Average Draft Position (ADP). ADP serves as a critical guide in draft preparation, helping managers navigate the player selection process and build a winning roster.

In this article, we will delve into the intricacies of ADP between two similarly valued players and identify how you can effectively attack the best player to construct a championship-caliber fantasy team. Let's get into it.

Breakdown Of Fantasy Football ADP

Average Draft Position, commonly referred to as ADP, represents the average position at which a player is drafted in fantasy football leagues. ADP is typically derived from data collected from various mock and real drafts conducted by fantasy football enthusiasts. This powerful metric serves as a benchmark, indicating the perceived value and popularity of players within the fantasy football community.

Understanding ADP is essential for fantasy managers as it provides crucial insights into player rankings and draft trends, and helps determine the optimal time to select specific players. By incorporating ADP into their draft strategy, managers can effectively gauge player availability, identify potential steals, and avoid reaching for players too early in the draft.

ADP acts as a compass, guiding fantasy managers through the unpredictable terrain of the draft. It offers an overview of player rankings, allowing managers to gauge which players are typically selected in the early rounds and which may fall to later rounds.

This knowledge can help managers identify "value picks," where players with a higher ADP can be secured at a lower draft position. Additionally, analyzing ADP trends over time can provide valuable insights into player fluctuations and market sentiment, helping managers stay ahead of the competition. By incorporating ADP data into their draft strategy, managers can make well-informed decisions, ensuring they assemble a well-balanced team capable of maximizing points and securing victory.

Incorporating ADP Into Your Draft Strategy

Draft strategy is a fundamental aspect of fantasy football success, and ADP plays a pivotal role in its development. Armed with the knowledge of ADP, managers can adopt different strategies based on the unique characteristics of their league. For example, "Zero RB" and "Late-Round QB" strategies capitalize on ADP data to determine when to prioritize running backs and quarterbacks, respectively.

Conversely, understanding ADP can help managers identify the optimal time to select high-value wide receivers or tight ends. By blending their draft strategy with ADP insights, managers can create a well-rounded roster that maximizes value and minimizes risk, setting themselves up for success throughout the fantasy football season.

Average Draft Position (ADP) serves as a vital tool in the arsenal of fantasy football managers. By comprehending the definition, importance, and strategic utilization of ADP, managers can make informed decisions during the draft, ultimately constructing a championship-caliber team.

With ADP as their guide, fantasy managers can navigate the intricacies of the draft process, identify value picks, and adapt their strategy to gain a competitive edge. Let's break down the ADPs of RBs Dameon Pierce and Dalvin Cook and see who the better pick for your fantasy football team may be.

Note: I only used ADP in drafts since Dalvin Cook signed with the New York Jets on August 14 to get a more accurate picture of where he's being selected.

ADP Breakdown

Dameon Pierce, Houston Texans

RB24 - NFC ADP (since Aug. 14): 68th Overall

What do Mike Anderson, Domanick Davis (aka Williams), Alfred Morris, Jordan Howard, Phillip Lindsay, and James Robinson have in common? All of these running backs were drafted in the fourth round or later (some went undrafted) and went on to have over 1,000 rushing yards in their debut season. Dameon Pierce finished just short of that mark (939 yards) but would have cleared it easily had he not suffered a high-ankle sprain late in the season.

Just because you were successful once, doesn't mean it will happen again. Some of those guys returned with strong sophomore seasons, while others (Anderson and Robinson) failed to deliver on expectations. Only one (Morris) strung together three straight 1,000-yard seasons before eventually tailing off.

The point of this exercise is to show that it's hard for players drafted on Day 3 or later to repeat productive seasons. It's typically done on volume, something Pierce had a lot of in 2022. His 17-game pace for carries calculated out to 287, which would have finished fifth in the league. Dare Ogunbowale, who did play all 17 games, finished second on the Texans with 42 carries. Pierce never had any competition in the Houston backfield.

This offseason, Houston did bring in someone to split the workload with the sophomore. Devin Singletary led the Buffalo Bills with 177 carries for 819 yards while adding five touchdowns on the ground in 2022. He also proved to be efficient in the passing game, tallying 38 receptions for 280 yards and another score.

Pierce has never been known for his soft hands. His career high for receptions -- dating back to his college days -- came last season at a grand total of 30. That was also good for a 9.4% target share. With knowledge of what both backs bring to the table, one would assume that Pierce takes snaps on running downs and Singletary plays on third downs. However, it may not be that black and white.

In their second preseason game, Pierce received all 14 of the snaps on the Texans' first two drives. That included obvious passing downs 3rd-and-6, 4th-and-6, and a 3rd-and-7. He did not receive a target but being on the field in those situations sends his potential skyrocketing. Singletary came onto the field once Pierce was done for the day.

The biggest question that remains for Pierce is the success of the offense. In 2022, the Texans only scored 29 offensive touchdowns. There was only one team worse than Houston, their AFC South rival Indianapolis Colts.

The popular opinion is that the offense will only improve under rookie C.J. Stroud and first-year coach DeMeco Ryans. That hasn't shown to be the case in the preseason and we may have rocky roads before the offense starts to click. That means they'll likely rely more on the running game, but it will come at the expense of touchdown opportunities.

Dalvin Cook, New York Jets

RB29 - NFC ADP (since Aug. 14): 78th Overall

Now entering his age-28 season, Dalvin Cook has yet to show any signs of decline. That could come this year as it has time and time again for other star running backs. Or he could play an integral role on a team that has legitimate postseason aspirations.

The veteran is coming off his fourth-straight 1,100-yard rushing season and his first time playing in all of Minnesota's games. The Vikings decided it was time to cut ties with Cook and the four-time Pro Bowler chose to take his talents to East Rutherford.

Seeing as he signed just last week, we've yet to see Cook in game action for the Jets. He's also still recovering from offseason shoulder surgery. The plan for the Jets is to pair Cook with incumbent Breece Hall, who is returning from surgery himself. Hall was one the most dynamic running backs in the league in 2022 before tearing his ACL in Week 7, averaging 16.4 PPR fantasy points per game (7th in the NFL).

Hall returned to practice about the same time the team announced the signing of Cook and coach Robert Saleh insists the sophomore will play Week 1. He almost certainly will not see the volume he had in 2022 (20.33 touches per game in Weeks 4-6) to start the season. The duo will likely split time early and often. Neither will solely see passing down work and neither will solely see rushing down work. The ceilings in New York are getting lower.

The New York Jets' offense is still loaded with weapons, and if the offensive line holds up, they will have no issues putting up points. With less on his plate, Cook may be able to push back that inevitable decline year. Both running backs will have good, if not great, weeks for fantasy managers, but it will be very tough to predict when they come.

Fantasy Football Verdict

Neither of these backs are guys I'm actively targeting in drafts. If Pierce is available at the right value (at the end of a tier around his ADP), go ahead and scoop him up. He's a solid RB2 option for managers who start with the Hero RB strategy or he could even be your top option for those who prefer to go Zero RB.

The Texan has a much higher floor than Cook. His ceiling is also higher unless Hall suffers another significant injury. Cook may start stronger, but Hall will demand more carries as the season progresses and he gets his legs back under him.

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