Second Half Breakouts for Fantasy Baseball - Jeremy Heist's "My Guys"

July 19, 2026

Jeremy's second-half fantasy baseball breakouts for 2026. These are all MLB hitters and pitchers he's trying to get on his rosters via waiver wire or trade including Sean Burke, Brandon Nimmo, more.

With the All-Star break upon us, it’s a great time for us to reflect on the season so far, but also to look ahead at the next potential breakouts. Your team is probably in good shape if you capitalized on first-half breakouts such as Jordan Walker and Cam Schlittler, but the second half brings just as much potential with new fantasy superstars ready to take that next step forward. 

In this piece, I’ll discuss five players who I believe are in a great spot to defy expectations and become fantasy difference makers down the stretch. Whether they’ve been a disappointment so far or have already started showing signs of improvement, I expect their second-half splits to look significantly better than the first. 

While most of these players probably aren’t available on the waiver wire in your league, they all make for great trade targets. After a week of no baseball, your league mates are probably itching to trade, so now is the time to strike before the second half gets underway.

Brandon Nimmo, OF, Texas Rangers

71% Rostered

When searching for potential second-half breakouts, the easiest place to start is by finding the players who just have not had luck on their side so far in 2026. That's certainly the case for Brandon Nimmo, who is slashing .263/.331/.425 despite having an xBA of .293 and an xSLG of .522, which rank in the 94th and 95th percentiles, respectively.

There's no doubt that fantasy managers are disappointed with his nine home runs, 34 RBI, 38 runs, and four steals so far, but according to the underlying metrics, he should be having the best season of his entire career.

The 33-year-old's walk rate has fallen to 7.8%, which is the first time it's been below 10% since his 32-game rookie season in 2016, but he has exchanged that patience for new highs in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, and barrel rate.

🚨 Brandon Nimmo is the best buy-low in fantasy baseball.

The underlying metrics are ELITE....

🔥93rd percentile (or better) in xBA, xSLG, xwOBA & Hard-Hit%
👀 .270+ AVG upside with power/speed

A must buy ⬇️pic.twitter.com/bD7W3w7fXp

— Andy Smith (@A_Smith_FS) July 15, 2026

The most notable improvement has come with his launch angle sweet-spot rate, which is up from 29.7% last season to 37.1% this year. By all accounts, the outfielder should be cruising to easily match his 25 home runs from 2025, if not surpass that total. Yet, here he sits with single-digit homers at the All-Star break.

It's only a matter of time before his elite quality of contact starts rewarding tangible results, and his batting average and slugging percentage should both start to climb in the direction of his expected stats. If you're weak at outfield, Nimmo should be a pretty affordable buy-low option if your league mate is losing faith in him.

Kazuma Okamoto, 3B, Toronto Blue Jays

89% Rostered

Kazuma Okamoto’s stateside debut has been shocking for many reasons. Much of the offseason discourse surrounding the international free agents revolved around Munetaka Murakami and whether he would strike out too much to be a usable fantasy asset. Many encouraged drafting Okamoto as a safer approach, as he struck out just 11.3% of the time in the NPB last season, compared to Murakami's 28.6%. 

That’s why it’s shocking to see the two foreign stars with extremely similar stat lines heading into the second half, with both striking out over 30% of the time and both having at least 20 home runs. It’s not an outcome I expected from Okamoto, who has posted a poor 30.9% strikeout rate and a .221 xBA while hitting the ball hard to the tune of a 47.5% hard-hit rate and a 14.8% barrel rate. 

The good news is that despite the batting average and strikeouts, Okamoto has still been a starting-caliber third baseman for fantasy, thanks to his 22 home runs, 62 RBI, and 50 runs. Not only does he hit the ball hard, but he truly gets the most out of his power with an elite 26.9% pull air rate that would result in more homers than expected even if he didn’t have a 91st percentile barrel rate. 

Kazuma Okamoto GRAND SLAM‼️ pic.twitter.com/gr0WhCfqoC

— MLB (@MLB) July 8, 2026

That’s why Okamoto will break out in the second half, as it’s only up from here. The hard contact and pull air rate give him a solid floor as a home run and RBI contributor for fantasy, but what if he also starts to bring the strikeout rate down?

Strikeouts are obviously much more prevalent in the US than in Japan, but after excelling at making contact for so long, I can’t help but think we’ve only seen the worst-case scenario for the third baseman so far. 

Adjusting to brand new pitchers that you’ve never seen before is tough in itself, let alone adjusting to an entirely new country to live in. The 30-year-old should only continue to improve as he gets more comfortable, and he’s already showing promising signs. 

After batting .218 in April and .210 in May, he produced a much better .286 batting average in June, along with a .263 average so far in July. On top of that, his strikeout rate in July currently sits at 19.0%. If the slugger continues to be closer to a .260 hitter than a .220 hitter moving forward, a big second half is in store.

Sean Burke, SP, Chicago White Sox

70% Rostered 

Sean Burke has reached a new level recently, allowing only six runs in his past five starts. Over that span of 32 innings, he’s posted a 1.69 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP with an even more impressive 34.4% strikeout rate and 4.1% walk rate. 

He looks like a brand-new pitcher compared to who he was through his first 14 starts of the season, where he struck out only 23.3% of batters and walked them at an 8.9% clip. The 26-year-old has struck out at least eight batters in four of his past five starts, and there’s reason to believe he can keep this up. 

The breakout didn’t just happen out of the blue, as it corresponds perfectly with a noticeable velocity increase. Burke’s average four-seam fastball velocity has seen an uptick to a consistent 96 mph over that span, which is 1.5 mph faster than it was in all of his starts prior to this stretch.

His entire arsenal has looked better as a result, as he’s getting plenty of whiffs on his whole repertoire of pitches, as hitters now have to think about the extra heat on his fastball. 

While I don’t necessarily expect the youngster to be an ace for the rest of the season, I think he can easily be a top-30 arm for fantasy as long as this velocity holds up. Of course, throwing harder for five starts and throwing hard for the next two and a half months without a break are two separate feats, so at least some level of caution should be used here.

Only time will tell, but I’m expecting big things from the righty for as long as he continues to throw this hard.

Troy Melton, SP, Detroit Tigers

63% Rostered 

You may think Troy Melton is already considered a first-half breakout, considering his excellent 1.82 ERA and 0.81 WHIP in eight starts since joining the major league rotation on May 24th. I wouldn’t argue, as he’s allowed more than one run in a start only twice, one of which was a two-run performance over eight strong innings. 

However, there’s still something to improve on, as his 41 strikeouts in 49 ⅓ innings still leave something to be desired for fantasy purposes. The good news is that the 25-year-old improved on exactly that over his final three starts before the break, striking out 22 batters in 17 2/3 innings over that span. 

Just like with Burke, this spike in production wasn’t random, as it coincided with a significant velocity increase on his four-seam fastball and cutter. The righty’s fastball was up to 97 mph, compared to 95-96 mph in his first five starts, and his cutter jumped from sitting in the 90-91 mph range to topping 93 mph regularly. 

It’s no coincidence that the youngster saw a huge spike in strikeouts when he started throwing these pitches harder, which gives him considerable upside heading into the second half. It’s especially promising that he was already breaking out before the increased velocity, as he’ll likely have a higher floor than Burke if the pitch speed does regress. 

However, there’s good reason to believe the 97 mph mark is here to stay, as Melton’s fastball routinely sat at that point last season, too. The decreased speed early on this season could have been some rust as he returned from an elbow injury, and it looks like he’s finally back and firing on all cylinders.

Kyle Bradish, SP, Baltimore Orioles

93% Rostered

Kyle Bradish has had an extremely up-and-down season, as he entered the year as a trendy breakout pick, but has so far disappointed to the tune of a 3.61 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in 107 1/3 innings. His 106 strikeouts are also a major disappointment, as his 23.3% strikeout rate is nowhere near the rates north of 30% that he posted in two abbreviated seasons in 2024 and 2025. 

However, he’s looked more like himself in his past five starts, including a 12-strikeout performance against the Mariners on June 17th, which was his second double-digit strikeout game of the year. Over those last five outings, Bradish has allowed eight runs on 19 hits and 11 walks with 33 strikeouts over 34 innings.

Kyle Bradish is through 8 scoreless innings with 9 strikeouts 🔥 pic.twitter.com/AHMqbojI7I

— MLB (@MLB) June 23, 2026

While the 29-year-old has been effective overall in that span, not allowing more than three runs in a start, he still went from striking out 12 and nine batters on June 17th and June 22nd to punching out only two batters, five batters, and five batters in the three starts since. 

The righty still has some tinkering to do, but the bright side is that it’s leading to better results, even if the strikeouts aren’t always there. After all, he took a no-hitter into the seventh inning in his most recent start, so nitpicking the strikeout totals isn’t necessary. 

I’m betting on the talent of a pitcher who posted a sub-3.00 ERA and sub-1.05 WHIP in 44 starts from 2023 to 2025. It’s been rocky up until this point, but based on his recent performance, Bradish is ready to cruise through the rest of 2026.

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