Week 7 Red Zone Alert - Risers and Fallers

October 23, 2021

Gladys L Tyler reviews the top red-zone risers and fallers heading into Week 7 of the 2021 NFL season at QB, RB, and WR to help fantasy football managers find an edge in their weekly lineups.

It is Week 7 and the red zone risers are starting to differentiate themselves from the red zone fallers. Let's be honest it is exciting when our team/player gets into the red zone, but if he isn't scoring, our fantasy hopes fall.

So let's look and see what players are making good on the red zone opportunities. Keep in mind the red zone is from 20-yards in…and risers and fallers are only judged on their red-zone efficiency, on targets!

Red zone stats are courtesy of NFLSavant.com and the red-zone efficiency from teamrankings.com.

Running Backs

It is no surprise that Pittsburgh Steelers Najee Harris leads all running back in targets.  He also leads all running back with red-zone targets (9) and is fourth in rushing attempts (102). However, he is 19^th in red-zone touchdowns with zero (0).

Harris has four touchdowns on the season.  Two rushing touchdowns and two receiving touchdowns.

Detroit Lions D'Andre Swift is second in targets (42).  However, he has only been targeted in the red zone five times with four receptions and zero red-zone touchdowns.

It doesn't get any easier this week.  The Lions will play the Los Angeles Rams.  The Rams' defense is ninth in limiting teams to red-zone touchdowns, allowing a red zone touchdown on 52.38% of attempts.

Swift does have three rushing touchdowns and one receiving touchdown for the season.

Monitor Swift's status as he again is showing up on the injury report.

Miami Dolphins' Myles Gaskin is fourth in targets (32) but the 43^rd running back in red-zone targets (1) and zero red-zone touchdowns.

Gaskins has two touchdowns on the season, both receiving touchdowns.

This week the Dolphins will play the Atlanta Falcons, who are 20^th in red-zone defense.  The Falcons allow a red zone touchdown on 66.67% of the opponents' attempts.

The stud of the running backs in red-zone targets and touchdowns is Cordarrelle Patterson.  Patterson is fifth in targets (31) and tied for first in red-zone touchdowns.

Patterson has seven red-zone targets, six completions, and three touchdowns.

For the season, he has one rushing touchdown and four receiving touchdowns.

The Dolphins' defense is slightly better than the Falcons in the red zone, ranking 16^th, allowing a touchdown on 62.50% of opponents' attempts.

Tight Ends

The surprise statistically speaking is New Orleans tight end, Juwan Johnson.  Johnson is on the field for a 17.5% snap share.  Yet, his red-zone stats have him as the fifth-best tight end in the red zone.  He has three targets, three receptions, and three red-zone touchdowns.

Those three touchdowns came in two games, with two in week one against the Green Bay Packers and one in week four against the New York Giants.

The fall is precipitous.

Those who aren't falling include Dallas Goedert, Dawson Knox, and Travis Kelce.

First Knox is on a bye this week, and Goedert is returning from COVID absence but missed practice on Thursday, so keep up on his injury status.

The Eagles play the Las Vegas Raiders, who give up the third-most touchdowns in the red zone (85.71%).

The Kansas City Chiefs play the Tennessee Titans a game with plenty of fantasy potential.  This game has the highest over/under (57.5), and the Chiefs are only a 4.5 point favorite. Kelce is on the field for 86.5% of the offensive snaps and has a 23.2% target share.

MonkeyKnifeFight.com currently has Kelce 85.5 receiving yards, more or less an option for your betting pleasure.

While Tyreek Hill has doubled Kelce's red-zone targets (10 for Hill), he has one less touchdown.

Wide Receivers

New England Patriots' Jakobi Meyers is top 13 in total targets (52). He is 70^th in red-zone targets.  He has been targeted in the red zone four times, three completions, and zero touchdowns.

This week holds little hope for improvement.  The Patriots will play the New York Jets in a rematch.  The Jets are currently the second-best team in keeping the opponents from scoring a touchdown in the red zone (42.86%).

The wide receiving red-zone studs are no surprise.  Cooper Kupp leads all receivers in targets (68), red-zone targets (10), completions (7), and red-zone touchdowns (5).

This week, the Rams take on the Detroit Lions, who surrender the second-most red-zone touchdowns (86.67%).

Arizona Cardinals' DeAndre Hopkins is tied with Seattle Seahawks DK Metcalf with four red-zone touchdowns.

The 6-0 Cardinals have been efficient in throwing the ball around.  Hopkins leads his team with 38 targets, followed by AJ Green with 32 and Christian Kirk with 31.

However, Hopkins's six red-zone targets, four receptions, and four touchdowns lead the team.  Next up is Green with six red-zone targets, two receptions, and one red-zone touchdown.

The Cardinals will host the Houston Texans this week. The Texans' defense though porous, has only given up three touchdowns to the wide receiver position.

Metcalf's stats are skewed without Russell Wilson under center.  And to make matters worse, the Seahawks will play the New Orleans Saints this week.  The Saints only allow opponents to score in the red-zone 35.71% of the time, NFL best.

Defensive Matchups to Target/Avoid

Top-Three Red Zone Defenses

New Orleans Saints 35.71% @ Seattle Seahawks
New York Jets 42.86% @ New England Patriots
Chicago Bears 45% @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Bottom-Three Red Zone Defenses

Green Bay Packers 100% vs. WFT
Detroit Lions 86.67% @ Los Angeles Rams
Las Vegas Raiders 85.71% vs. Philadelphia Eagles

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