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As fantasy football draft season heats up, Dom Petrillo looks at quarterback options that you can target late in drafts. Why waste a high pick on QB when you can find value late?
Take’em high and let’em fly. Sit and wait. These are both options to play when looking at the quarterback position in fantasy football. Is the high draft pick used on Patrick Mahomes worth it when looking at who else you could have taken? If you think so, then this article is not for you.
But if you realize the depth created by waiting on the position while others take theirs? Then this may be just up your alley. Unlike some other positions such as tight end, the quarterback position is deep in 2019. There are 20-to-24 quarterbacks you should be happy with starting on a weekly basis. Do you realize in a league with only 32 teams, 40 quarterbacks provided a top-12 week at some point in 2018? Again, there are only 32 teams in the league and 40 quarterbacks put up a top-12 week. Obviously, no one drafted Nick Mullens thinking he would have his first start and get Twitter verified in the same night. But this stat alone shows the depth at the position, if you know who to look at.
Let us now look at some of those players who, although going late, will provide a solid season for your fantasy team.
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Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings
ADP: QB20, Pick 12.12
His season according to some was terrible last year. Despite this assumption, Kirk Cousins still finished with 4,400 yards 30 touchdowns and only threw 10 interceptions.
During the first 13 weeks of the season, he was throwing the ball over 45 times per games. After the offensive coordinator shift and the team became more run-heavy those attempts went down to just over 27 per game. That is bound to happen when the run attempts go from 33% to 48% of the offense and also when the team is trying everything possible to save their season.
With Dalvin Cook supposedly healthy and Alexander Madison drafted to replace Latavius Murray, this downward trend would seem to be something which will continue. Not so fast my friend.
Adam Thielen fell off dramatically in the second half of last season. After starting as the number one fantasy receiver through eight weeks, he did not even crack the top-24 receivers in the final half. After a full offseason of work, as well as the Vikings showing their belief in him with a new contract he would again get back into the conversation as a top-15 receiver. He is right there alongside teammate Stefon Diggs. Both of these receivers are elite and will command 90 to 100 catches each. Add to this the receiving chops of Dalvin Cook and last years stats for Cousins should be a floor.
Even if he were to replicate his stats from last season, he finished as QB13 with 280 points. The fact he is a year older in the offense and a year more comfortable in Minnesota makes it crazy he has dropped to the QB20 in ADP. Taking him as your starting quarterback as the last pick in the 12th round is almost grand larceny. He has nowhere to go but up and unlike some other quarterbacks this low in the ranks, he has no chance of being benched. The beauty of guaranteed money in a contract.
The 12th round is a steal for his projected outcome. You should even be comfortable taking him much higher in the range of QB12. However, if the value is there why not wait and get him here while filling up on other positions.
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
ADP: QB19, Pick 12.5
I will be honest. I am not a Lamar Jackson truther. I was that guy on twitter who said he would make a great wide receiver in the NFL in a few years when he was drafted. 2018 did nothing to make me change my mind about him. However, Baltimore loves him and is giving him the chance and therefore, I am willing to do so as well.
With this baseline established, you can not ignore his running talent and his willingness to work this offseason to get better. He has worked with a number of different quarterback whisperers to fix his mechanics. The Ravens drafted two rookies to help in his quest with Miles Boykin and Marquise Brown. These players being added to the tight end duo of Hayden Hurst and Mark Andrews from last year's draft gives Jackson a young core to grow and get comfortable with.
The passing could come together in 2019. But running is what we know will be there. Not only did Jackson add 20 pounds this summer in hopes of becoming stronger, but he also has the backing of John Harbaugh. His coach came out to the media and said he expects Jackson to run a lot this season and possibly even break Cam Newton’s record for rush attempts by a quarterback. If his coach is saying this then it may actually be true. Yes, coaches usually do not tell the truth in training camp. If he were going to lie about his quarterback, he would lessen the number of attempts. Not exaggerate. Of course, this could change. The Ravens are not as good as a whole this season as they were last season. The defense is weakened, and the offense is still just average. But if they want to win, it will be squarely on the legs and arm of Jackson.
Knowing he is the key to the entire offense in Baltimore, selecting him in the 12th round is worth it. If you want to back him up there are others later, you can do so with. A player like Josh Allen or even Sam Darnold is going later in drafts and can be used if needed. But whether you want him as part of a quarterback rotation on your team, or as your quarterback. He should provide you with some top-12 weeks. And on those other weeks? He should still be top-20-to-24 and not kill you.
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
ADP: QB17, Pick 12.1
We all know the stat. Prescott has been in the league for three seasons and never had less than six rushing touchdowns. If Ezekiel Elliott sits out, he may need a lot more than six for Dallas to have a prayer. But anyway. He is also a game manager. This is not a good term to hear as it brings up ideas of Trent Dilfer and Alex Smith. Both of whom got teams to Super Bowls don’t forget, but Prescott is more than that. Because of the rush ability and because of the team surrounding him.
While players like Smith and Dilfer had success because their teams had stellar defenses, the Cowboys have a good offense also. Elliott was the only back in 2018 with over 300 rushing attempts. He added 80 receptions to this and is one of, if not the best running back in the NFL. The Addition of Amari Cooper was key to this selection. We know Cooper can be streaky. He may finish as a top-15 wide receiver but the path there won’t be pretty for his owners. But for Prescott, this doesn’t matter. Cooper will have his weeks; Michael Gallop will have his and even Randall Cobb will have his.
While Prescott does not have the ceiling of a top-five quarterback in fantasy, the hate has gone too far. He has been in the league three seasons. He has never thrown for more than 3,900 yards or had more than 24 touchdowns. But you know what else? He has never finished outside the top-12 for fantasy quarterbacks. So, what makes you think he will do so this season with more weapons and a new high-powered offensive scheme under Kellen Moore? Hmm.
Others to consider
Josh Allen - QB22, Pick 13.11
Philip Rivers, QB14, Pick 10.9
Matthew Stafford- QB24, Pick 14.8
More ADP Values and Sleepers
