X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

PPR Draft Targets - Undervalued Running Backs

Antonio Losada evaluates four running backs that should become fantasy football draft targets in 2020 given the potential ROI they could generate for their owners based on ADP.

For fantasy football GMs, draft season is gearing up. Preparing for what is waiting for us in our virtual war-rooms is a key part of the process, and the first thing to know is the format of the league we're going to be part of. The difference between Standard and PPR (Point-Per-Reception) scoring systems is really simple, with the latter awarding one extra point to players who catch a pass. Standard scoring was a staple in the early days of fantasy football, but PPR has become the most played system lately.

It doesn't take a genius to know who this benefits the most: over-targeted receivers, pass-catching running backs, and reliable tight ends. While some players are good enough to put up good numbers on their pure talent, others might fall shorter on the ability leaderboard. Some of those, though, trump the most talented ones in fantasy leagues due to a heavier usage and racking up receptions that go for extra fantasy points.

Having the PPR scoring system in mind, it's time to discover which players are surefire bets to excel in leagues following that format that are currently being undervalued in drafts by fantasy GMs. Today, I'm highlighting four running backs who are primed to become studs in these leagues that have lower ADPs and prices than those they should be attached to.

Editor's Note: Discover RotoBaller’s top Fantasy Football Sleepers to gain an edge in your drafts. Our free who to draft tool and expert picks spotlight undervalued players, breakout candidates, and late-round gems for all league formats.

 

Nyheim Hines, Indianapolis Colts

ADP 205.5, Projected PPR: 146.2

Even in the two weeks Marlon Mack wasn't active last season, Nyheim Hines couldn't crack the 10-rushing attempts mark logging nine and four in Weeks 12 and 13. That will, once more, be the case this season. Indianapolis will use both Mack and rookie Jonathan Taylor as its RB1 and RB2 on the ground, with Hines profiling as the No. 1 option in the backfield when it comes to the passing game.

Before getting too high on Hines you should know the player we're discussing here. Hines is most probably not going to win you the league. PFF has him projected for 146.2 PPR points in 2020, good for RB58. But keep in mind, though, that we're discussing PPR leagues here and there aren't that many running backs with Hines' upside and abilities when it comes to the passing game. Hines is one of just 11 running backs projected to 49+ receptions and the one projected to log the fewest opportunity share with a really low 14.3%. Just in case, only James White (discussed next) projects to get more PPR points over the year than Hines on a 15% or lower opportunity share.

Hines is a great FLEX option in PPR leagues and if either of Mack or Taylor fall injured he'll boost his numbers as he'll probably be used more on the ground (don't expect a lot on that front, though). Among running backs projected to get at least 100 opportunities in 2020, Hines has the third-highest ROI (ADP divided by final overall rank in PPR leagues) only behind Alvin Kamara and Raheem Mostert at the time of this writing.

 

James White, New England Patriots

ADP 139.1.7, Projected PPR: 153.8

Every year is the same story. Every year I think James White will be properly valued, and I always find myself on the wrong side of things. We're talking PPR leagues here, and White is basically a wide receiver disguised as a running back. White ranked sixth in targets and receptions, and third in receiving yards among rushers last season, and he's still getting drafted in the 11th round at the earliest.

Did I mention that he finished the year as the RB20 without even reaching 70 rushing attempts? That's White for you in the unknown. It will be hard for White to get more carries (PFF projects him to see 59 in 2020) but the targets and receptions clearly outweigh the rushing numbers. With a 77/58/435/2 (targets/receptions/receiving yards/TDs) projected line for next season, White is one of just eight RBs expected to reach at least a 75/55/435/2 line over the year.

Although not an incredible PPR scorer, White is one of (if not the) most reliable and steady performers in the NFL. Just look at his outcomes from 2019 in the chart above. Not counting his Week 12 dud and his impossibly great performance in Week 13, he would have averaged 12.9 PPG never diverging by more than six PPR points from that mark. Consider White a lock to give you 12 PPR points each and every week with upside to getting into the 20s if everything clicks for him.

 

Tarik Cohen, Chicago Bears

ADP 139.4, Projected PPR: 155.9

Cohen's profile and his situation in Chicago are incredibly similar to those of White (read above). Actually, PFF has White projected at 153.8 PPR points in 2020 and Cohen to 155.9. On a finer level of detail, White's projected receiving line reads 77/58/435/2 while Cohen's sits at 72/58/456/2. Simply put, these two tailbacks can't be closer in expected production and in ADP with virtually the same value there.

While I'm higher on White than on Cohen, the truth is that the latter brings a little bit more to the equation thanks to his usage on the running game. Cohen projects to get 19.8% of Chicago's rushing attempts (74) in 2020 compared to White's 13.6% (59 attempts). The best thing about White and also Cohen is that both, even playing the RB position, are projected to end next season as the third most-targeted players on their attacks with 16% of the targets going their ways.

Although Cohen had a middling first half in 2019 averaging 8.2 PPG from the first game to Week 9, he raised that average to 12.3 PPG during the last eight games of the season. He scored the 18th-most PPR points in that span thanks mostly to his 45 receptions, third only to Christian McCaffrey's 74 and Alvin Kamara's 48 from Week 10 on. Cohen recently admitted he didn't take care of his body properly last year, so it's possible that he will be recommitted to being better.

 

Le'Veon Bell, New York Jets

ADP 68.7, Projected PPR: 163.3

Considering Bell undervalued, with an ADP of 88.5 (inside the first six rounds), might be a little too much. But bear with me. Bell's current ADP, compared to where he is projected to finish the year in PPR points (RB14) makes him a very nice bargain. With PFF projecting Bell to reach 226.5 PPR points in 2020, that'd make him the 46th-best player overall in the NFL, thus giving him a ROI of 1.49. That mark is the second-highest among running backs getting drafted inside top-third rounds of 12-team leagues only behind Kamara's 4.1. The return on investment can't get much higher.

The perception of Bell's 2019 season is that of a rusher past his prime, and not a very good one all things considered. That is far from reality, though. Bell finished last year as the RB16 in PPR leagues and although he closed the season on a low-scoring streak he was able to perform as an RB1 in six of the first 11 games he played, and only finished below the RB2 threshold six times in 16 games. Bell is, at the very least, a high-level RB2 with upside to turn into an RB1 in 2020.

Most important for the purposes of this article, though, is the fact that he's one of only nine RBs projected to more than 50 receptions (52) and 65 targets. Bell has it all. He is the No. 1 rusher on his team by a mile (he projects to get 58.2% of the Jets rushing attempts, the ninth-highest mark among all RBs), should reach 800+ yards on the ground, and also has the pass-catching ability to consider him a do-it-all player very valuable in PPR leagues.

More Fantasy Football Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Austin Riley

Leaves Game Early on Friday With Abdominal Tightness
Kon Knueppel

Struggles in Summer League Win
Rafael Devers

Dealing With Back Inflammation
Walter Clayton Jr.

Plays Well on Friday Night
Cody Williams

Scores 21 Points in Summer League Loss
Kyle Filipowski

Leads the Way on Friday Night
Teoscar Hernández

Teoscar Hernandez Returning on Friday
Sauce Gardner

Wants to be Highest-Paid Cornerback
Rhamondre Stevenson

Heading into an Important Season
Minnesota Vikings

Josh Metellus, Vikings Have Mutual Interest in Extension
Tua Tagovailoa

2025 Could be Tua Tagovailoa's Last Season in Miami
Rashawn Slater

has "Full Confidence" a Deal Will Get Done
Byron Buxton

Returns on Friday
Isaiah Jackson

Signs Three-Year Extension
Jake Meyers

Placed on 10-Day Injured List With Calf Strain
Brandon Lowe

Placed on 10-Day Injured List With Oblique Tightness
Kodai Senga

Reinstated to Start on Friday
Alex Bregman

Officially Activated and Starting on Friday
Marvin Bagley III

Joining the Wizards
Herbert Jones

Signing Extension with Pelicans
Jacob Toppin

Returning to Hawks
Chicago Bears

Bears Extend General Manager Ryan Poles
Dalton Knecht

Avoids Serious Injury
MarShawn Lloyd

in a "Much Better Spot" Heading Into Training Camp
Javon Small

Signs Two-Way Deal
Dustin Hopkins

Browns Still Counting on Dustin Hopkins
Demarcus Robinson

Sentenced to Three Years of Probation
Jalen Nailor

In Line for WR3 Role in Minnesota
Andrew Thomas

Could Miss Start of 2025 Season
Alex Bregman

Expected to Return on Friday
Julio Rodríguez

Julio Rodriguez Won't Suit Up for Midsummer Classic
Trey Smith

Chiefs, Trey Smith Expected to Work Out Long-Term Extension
Bernhard Raimann

a Candidate for an Extension This Summer
C.J. Stroud

Could Sign Multi-Year Deal Before 2026 Season
Kyle Juszczyk

Says Christian McCaffrey Looks Healthy, Explosive
Kyren Williams

Showing Improved Explosiveness
Christian Barmore

"Dominant" this Spring
Ryan Reaves

Traded to Sharks
Vladislav Kolyachonok

Moves to Dallas
Matt Dumba

Lands in Pittsburgh
Mackie Samoskevich

Re-Signs with Panthers on One-Year Deal
Josh Manson

Inks Two-Year Extension with Avalanche
EDM

Isaac Howard Signs Three-Year, Entry-Level Contract With Oilers
Pete Crow-Armstrong

Homers Twice, Drives in Three
Brice Matthews

Joining Astros
MLB

White Sox-Guardians Postponed on Thursday
Brandon Aiyuk

Likely to Begin Season on PUP List, but Not Ruled Out for Week 1
Jameson Williams

Not in the Team's Long-Term Plans?
Tallison Teixeira

Set For His First UFC Main Event
Micah Parsons

Plans to be Present for Start of Training Camp
Derrick Lewis

Set To Headline UFC Nashville
Ikem Ekwonu

Next Up for Extension in Carolina?
Gabriel Bonfim

Looks For His Third UFC Win
Stephen Thompson

Returns At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Calvin Kattar

In Dire Need Of Victory
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere A Favorite At UFC Nashville
Nate Landwehr

Aims To Bounce Back
MMA

Austen Lane Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Vitor Petrino

Set For His Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Set To Open Up UFC Nashville Main Card
Junior Tafa

Set For Light-Heavyweight Bout
Alex Bregman

Will Return to Red Sox This Weekend
Chris Sale

Braves Won't Consider Trading Chris Sale
Clarke Schmidt

to Undergo Season-Ending Elbow Surgery on Friday
Jalen Williams

Signs Contract Extension With Thunder
Alijah Martin

Agrees to Two-Way Deal With Raptors
Tristan Vukcevic

Set to Return to Washington
Byron Buxton

Sitting Thursday
Anfernee Simons

Celtics Are "Actively Trying to Trade" Anfernee Simons
NBA

Alex Ducas Heading to Australia
Dominick Barlow

Inks Two-Way Deal With 76ers
Jordan McLaughlin

Spurs Re-Sign Jordan McLaughlin to One-Year Deal
Dylan Harper

Out Thursday, Expected to Play Saturday
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Homers Twice on Wednesday
Mike Trout

Homers Twice in Win Over Rangers
Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Leads Yankees to Victory
Salvador Perez

Crushes Two Homers in Win
VJ Edgecombe

Diagnosed with a Sprained Thumb
Devin Booker

Agrees to Extension with Phoenix
Walter Clayton Jr.

Leads Jazz to Summer League Win
Gary Woodland

Looking to Find Rhythm at Scottish Open
Aaron Rai

Brings Consistent Play to Scottish Open
Maverick McNealy

a Solid Value Play at Scottish Open
Aldrich Potgieter

Making Scottish Open Debut
Tom Kim

Looks to Rebound at Scottish Open
Brian Harman

a Safe Option at Scottish Open
Luke Clanton

a Sneaky Value Play at Scottish Open
Sam Burns

Looking to Stay Hot at Scottish Open
Nicolai Hojgaard

May Feel More at Home in Europe
Harry Hall

Showing Fine Form Heading to Scotland
Ryan Fox

Playing Well Since Early Spring Struggles
Max Greyserman

has Solid History at the Genesis Scottish Open
Harris English

Aims High for Scotland Next
Corey Conners

Primed for the Genesis Scottish Open
Daniel Brown

Attempts the Scottish Swing Again
Jacob Bridgeman

Needs Putter to Work at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Headlines Field at Genesis Scottish Open
Rory McIlroy

a Smart Play for Scottish Open
Adam Scott

Looking to Build on History at The Renaissance Club
NASCAR

Sepp Straka Not Likely to Find Momentum at Scottish Open
Justin Rose

Hopes Month Hiatus Helps Him Bounce Back at Scottish Open
NHL

Tyler Johnson Retires After 13 NHL Seasons
Jack McBain

Inks New Five-Year Deal with Mammoth
Cam York

Re-Signs with Flyers for Five Years
Jake Knapp

Fits the Mold for Success at The Renaissance Club
Ty Gibbs

Finishes Second at Chicago and Advances in In-Season Challenge
Alex Bowman

Defeats Bubba Wallace in In-Season Challenge, but Not Without Controversy
Alex Bowman

Bubba Wallace Wrecked by Alex Bowman Again, Putting Playoffs in Doubt
Michael McDowell

Throttle Failure Ends Michael McDowell's Chances to Win at Chicago
Austin Hill

Earns First NASCAR Cup Series Top Ten at Chicago
Tyler Reddick

Scores a Strong Third-Place Run at Chicago
Kyle Busch

Matches his Best Career Finish At Chicago on Sunday
Denny Hamlin

Fights his Way to a Top-5 Finish at Chicago
William Byron

has his Worst Weekend of the Season at Chicago
Sonny Milano

on Track to Be Ready for Training Camp
Jakub Dobes

Signs Two-Year Deal with Canadiens
NHL

Hendrix Lapierre Signs One-Year Deal with Capitals
Carson Hocevar

Should DFS Players Consider Carson Hocevar for Chicago Lineups?
Tye Kartye

Kraken Re-Sign Tye Kartye for Two Years
Ross Chastain

May be A Decent DFS Option for Chicago Lineups
Dmitri Voronkov

Signs Two-Year, $8.35 Million Extension with Blue Jackets
Ryan Preece

Should DFS Players Roster Ryan Preece at Chicago?
Austin Dillon

Is Too Great of A Risk to Add to Chicago Lineups
Zane Smith

Is A Value Play Worth Rostering At Chicago
Austin Hill

is A Favorable Value Option for Chicago DFS Lineups
Ty Dillon

Is Ty Dillon A Decent Driver to Add For NASCAR DFS At Chicago?
William Byron

Qualifying Crash Makes William Byron a Likely DFS Must-Have
Alex Bowman

Should Finish Well, but Probably Costs Too Much for Serious DFS Consideration
Joey Logano

Has Been Relatively Mediocre on Road Courses Lately
Ryan Blaney

Doesn't Really Fit Neatly into Optimal DFS Lineups
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF