RADIO
RotoBaller's top PGA player props, best bets, and matchup picks for the 2026 Truist Championship. Get commission-free odds and market edges with Novig golf picks.
Hello golf fans, it's great to be with you again here at RotoBaller! Following what was one of the statements of the season from Cameron Young: a six shot win at Doral, we head back to familiar confines in Quail Hollow Club for the Truist Championship.
This week's picks will all be using the odds on the most unique and fastest-growing sports prediction sites -- Novig. If you're not familiar with the site, I'll explain how it works and provide some of my favorite wagers to place on Novig. There are lots of juicy numbers available for the year's first major!
As always, make sure you're following RotoBaller on X and download the RotoBaller app for all your season-long, DFS, and betting needs. Now, here are some of my favorite PGA bets and props for the 2026 Truist Championship Signature Event.
Featured Promo: New Novig users get a $25 purchase match (50% discount up to $25) on your first Novig deposit, and 6 free months of RotoBaller's "Big-4" Premium Pass (NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL) which includes exclusive tools for Betting, Props, DFS and more! CLAIM IT NOW
What is Novig?
Novig is one of the fastest-growing peer-to-peer sports prediction markets. On Novig, users trade directly with each other, without the "vig" typically associated with a sportsbook. The vig is the fee sportsbooks charge you to use their services. It's a hidden cost that can be found in the odds that are being offered on each side of a specific bet. When a book offers -110 odds on both sides of a bet, it is keeping close to 10% of every bettor's wager, regardless of whether you win or lose.
On Novig, users trade with each other on the outcomes of sporting events, similarly to the way that investors trade on the stock market. But instead of having to beat the books, you just have to win against other users -- there's no commission kept by the site.
Users can bet on most traditional sports markets, including moneyline bets, spreads, totals, tournament matchups, player props, parlays, and futures!
Novig operates with two virtual currencies. Novig coins can be wagered for fun and to test out strategies, while Novig cash can be wagered on all markets and then redeemed for real cash prizes.
Access to Novig is widespread; it's now accessible in 36 U.S. states.
How Does Novig Work?
Since users are not playing against the books, there is an opportunity to make more money per wager that you win, and users can usually find better values on bets (in terms of the prices being offered) than on traditional sportsbooks.
There are no oddsmakers; users dictate their own odds. You can either accept the odds that the market is offering or set your own odds.
If you set your own odds, another user has to accept them on the other side for the bet to be activated.
Users drive the market, not the sportsbook or oddsmakers!
PGA Tournament Matchup Picks
All odds are from Novig and were accurate/available as of 5/5/2026. Odds are subject to change.
Nicolai Hojgaard (-118 at Novig) OVER Jason Day
There was a time where Jason Day lived for venues like this -- and in fact, his 2018 triumph at Quail Hollow remains one of my favorite on-site memories in my many visits to the Truist Championship. Father time, however, remains undefeated. And for Jason in particular, it has been especially cruel.
At places he once used to crush from tee-to-green, the horses are no sadly longer there for the 38-year-old Australian. He sits as a below average entity in driving distance relative to the field, while his long-iron play languishes near the bottom of the PGA Tour.
From beyond 200 yards, Day is losing nearly a full tenth of a stroke per shot since the start of the year (4th percentile), and sits dead-last among qualified players in average proximity (58.3 feet). While his short game is still capable of bailing him out of many tough spots, his ball-striking profile simply isn't strong enough to create consistent birdie chances around a venue as daunting as Quail Hollow.
Nicolai, on the other hand, excels in the areas in which Jason lacks. He sits fourth in this field in driving distance, third in long-iron proximity, and has already recorded top three finishes in two of the schedules other premier driver-heavy venues: Torrey Pines and Memorial Park. On a course where we've routinely seen elite ball-strikers separate from the field, I'm very comfortable laying the juice on the 25-year-old to outperform the elder statesman.
Ludvig Åberg (-106 at Novig) OVER Tommy Fleetwood
While Tommy Fleetwood spent much of last season as one of the more metronomic entities on the PGA Tour, his first four months of 2026 have left a lot to be desired in his FedEx Cup title defense. Over his last three starts, in particular, Tommy has lost strokes on approach and around the greens -- two of the cornerstones of his breakout 2025 -- and subsequently failed to finish inside the top 20 since the Valero early last month.
Meanwhile, Ludvig Åberg has taken the opposite path. After starting his season with a tough stretch on the west coast, the 26-year-old Swede has rounded into form as the Tour progressed into the Southeast: logging four top-five finishes across his last five starts. His distance advantage over Tommy will be especially pertinent around a layout in Quail Hollow where just two par fours measure under 450 yards, and his irons are firing unlike we've ever seen in Ludvig's nearly three years as a professional. Since the Arnold Palmer Invitational in March, Åberg has recorded the 4th, 5th, 10th, and 11th-best approach performances of his career, and even his much-maligned short game has raised its baseline: gaining strokes in six of his last seven.
Notably, although Tommy has made six career starts here to Åberg's one, it is the Swede who has logged the best putting week of the two (+3.39 at last year's PGA). If he has truly figured out these greens, the current state of Ludvig's ball-striking is far too reliable to fade.
Novig Promo Code and Welcome Bonus
Use code BALLER, and spend $5 to get $50 in Novig coins.
You also get six free months of RotoBaller's "Big-4" Premium Pass (NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL), which includes exclusive tools for Betting, Props, DFS, and more!
You can claim your welcome offer to Novig right now by clicking on the image below.
PGA Finishing Position Props
All odds are from Novig and were accurate as of 5/5/2026. Odds are subject to change.
Adam Scott WINNER (+4067 at Novig)
For the second straight week, we're touting Adam Scott as an outright winner, and Novig's 40-1 price tag is once again the best in market. Scott did all he could to overcome a horrible start to his Cadillac Championship -- logging 14 birdies and no bogies across his final 36 holes to finish in a tie for 4th.
This week, the demands he'll face at Quail Hollow will be very similar to Doral's driver/long iron-heavy setup, and by the numbers, he remains one of the game's premier ball-strikers. He currently sits sixth in this field in Driving Distance, and over his last 36 rounds, nobody in the field has averaged more strokes gained on approach.
The putter has clearly been the limiting factor to this point in 2026, but something has awoken for Adam recently at Quail Hollow. He's gained 5.2 and 4.4 strokes on these greens in 2023 and 2025 respectively. If we can get anywhere near those figures this week, the 45-year-old will certainly be a threat to log his first top-level win in over five years.
Cameron Young TOP 10 (+115 at Novig)
While much will be made about the potential letdown spot on tap for Cam Young this week, the underlying numbers suggest no signs of slowing down. As mentioned with Adam Scott above, the general ball-striking profile at Quail Hollow won't be that dissimilar to Doral last week -- where Cam lapped the field by a half-dozen. And even better for Young, Quail Hollow's benign rough and lack of true hazards mean the Demon Deacon can further utilize his immense length of the tee without fear of a meaningful penalty.
Cam's ball-striking has been a well-known commodity for a some time now, but the true catalyst behind his breakout has been the dependability he's found in his short game. Since bringing college teammate Kyle Sterbinsky on as his caddie at last year's Truist, Cam has gained an average of 0.63 strokes per round with his putter (fourth in this field).
Additionally, he's also jumped from outside the top 100 in Around the Green play in 2025 to 35th on Tour through four months of 2026. With these new baselines established, Cam has logged five top 10s across his last six starts, and 13/23 dating back to the 2025 Truist.
At a venue truly tailor-made for his game, confidence as high as anyone in the sport, and just 71 players teeing it up against him, I fully expect another stint at the top of the leaderboard from the newly-minted World No. 3. I'll gladly take the plus-money proposition on him continuing this torrid run of form.
