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Overvalued running backs for fantasy football 2017. Frankie Soler looks at RB who could be busts in 2017 fantasy drafts based on current average draft position.
Sleepers and busts, sleepers and busts. Go ahead and open Google and just type in either of those words without mentioning anything about football. One of the first few results will be directly related to fantasy. That's because that's what every owner obsesses over most. Who can I get as a steal? Who do I want to avoid? The easiest position to whiff on is running back and it's not close. So it's best to have a few RBs on your "bust" list.
Similar to my take on "sleepers," the best way to identify busts is to establish a hard definition for the word. A bust doesn't mean the player is completely useless for fantasy. It doesn't mean you should avoid them at all costs. A true "bust" in fantasy is a player who doesn't live up to their ADP by a notable margin. An injured player is not a bust. They got hurt, they didn't even have the opportunity to underperform. I'll repeat, it does not mean that player is utterly useless. It means they went too high in redraft leagues. They were overvalued. That's pretty much it.
At the right price, feel free to draft any of the names listed. Just don't commit to their current value on the chance that they don't live up to their draft stock.
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Overvalued Running Backs
Joe Mixon, RB - Cincinnati Bengals
The Cincinnati Bengals backfield was once a promising source of fantasy goodness. Then it all went haywire once Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard decided to flip-flop their production ad nauseam. First it was Gio, then it was Hill, then it was both Gio and Hill, THEN it was back to Hill, and now it's...Joe Mixon? Did the other two guys fall off the face of the Earth overnight?
Joe Mixon is a very, very talented player who does indeed have the potential to breakout as early as week one. Mixon could overtake the starting gig on a majority of NFL teams. The problem is, we've seen so many offenses utilize a committee instead of sticking with their most talented player. Hill is still in line to start while Bernard is primed to continue pass-catching duties. That doesn't mean Mixon is automatically the third man in the rotation. For all we know Mixon sees an equal share of the workload, churning out the best numbers of the three in the process. Here's the rub: for a guy in a clear committee, he's going way too high in drafts.
Mixon is currently going in the fourth round of redraft leagues. You're basically taking your RB2, a rookie who is unlikely to get a full workload, in the fourth round. The range of outcomes is far to great to invest that high. He's being overvalued based purely on anticipated talent. Sometimes fantasy owners get too caught up on who the best player is without considering the situation. There is a legitimate chance we have to wait a year or two to see Mixon emerge as a superstar.
Leonard Fournette, RB - Jacksonville Jaguars
Our second rookie on the list is Leonard Fournette of the Jacksonville Jaguars. Fournette was the most highly touted running back prospect of the 2017 NFL draft with a ton of fantasy potential to boot. He has a much clearer path to being a fantasy star thanks to being drafted by the Jaguars. The Jags have clearly given up on T.J. Yeldon after adding two backs two consecutive years, and Chris Ivory is a prototypical change of pace back. It's unlike the Bengals where it's obvious the team is making an effort to use multiple backs.
So if Fournette, a seemingly can't miss rookie, is in line for a full workload, why do I think he's overvalued? It's simple. Fournette is going in the second round, a reasonable spot for someone as talented as him. The drawback here is that in order to live up to his ADP he has to have a Rookie of the Year type of season. You're basically banking on another Ezekiel Elliott to happen in back-to-back years. That doesn't happen very often.
Another aspect to consider is that Leonard Fournette has had issues with his foot all offseason. The dialogue surrounding the injury suggests it's not related to the issues he had at LSU, but it's still plausible they're connected. A rookie running back going in the second round with an unknown ailment is iffy at best. Like I said in the intro, this doesn't mean you should avoid Fournette or that he can't be a good fantasy RB. Sadly, a second rounder sounds too good to be true.
Isaiah Crowell, RB - Cleveland Browns
Believe it or not, I'm actually a big fan of Isaiah Crowell, but even I can't defend his current draft value. Crowell is going in the early third round, just two picks after Lamar Miller. Based on numbers you would think that that's fair value. After all, Crowell was RB14 in PPR last year, RB15 in standard. He racked up 952 yards on the ground with seven touchdowns. He's solid, a strong RB2, maybe even a low-end RB1 in a 12-team league. Once again, it's all about ADP.
Crowell is most certainly overvalued at the top of the third round. Running backs aside, he's going ahead of a ton of other players who are closer to fulfilling their draft stock. Guys like Alshon Jeffery and Drew Brees have a much clearer path to paying off due to higher floors. By the way, Crowell plays for a Cleveland team that is still...not very good, to put it nicely. A touchdown drought is always in play for the Browns so seven scores on the ground might not be repeatable. I like Crowell a round or two later, and definitely want him on one of my teams this year. Ponying up for him this early feels too dirty.
