NFL Survivor Pool Picks (Week 3) - Targets and Avoids

September 24, 2023

The top NFL survivor pool picks for Week 3 of the 2023 NFL season. Betting expert Seth I. Finkelstein's weekly survivor league pool targets and avoids.

What a difference a week makes. Look at how the media reacted to Week 1 and compare that to Week 2. Some were doubting the Bills after a rough opener but they took care of business against the Raiders. But more needs to be seen from them especially when they go up against a top-10 defense. The Lions won a 50/50 game against the Chiefs in Week 1 and then lost in overtime to Seattle and now critics are saying Detroit is an average team. They could very well be average but it's only two games! Do not get caught up in recency bias.

The Cardinals nearly upended survivor leagues but they blew a 20-0 halftime lead against the Giants. New York was the second-most popular pick in many pools, behind the Bills. The other teams to lose knocking out some entrants were the Lions and Broncos. I took Denver with my second entry and the Giants with my first. At halftime, it seemed the Broncos could cruise and the Giants lose but just the opposite happened.

There are tons of big favorites in Week 3. When this has happened in the past, one or two teams that no one expected to lose went down. And you also need to be careful to not just pick a huge favorite because you'll advance to another week, but you may want to save that team. The point of survivor is to win, not to survive.

NFL Teams Favored by 6+ in Week 3

• Chiefs -12.5 vs. Bears
• Cowboys -12.5 at Cardinals
• 49ers -10 vs. Giants
• Jaguars -9.5 vs. Texans
• Ravens -8 vs. Colts
• Bills -6.5 at Commanders
• Dolphins -6.5 vs. Broncos
• Seahawks -6 vs. Panthers

These lines are from Tuesday.

Top Survivor Pool Picks to Target for Week 3

Seahawks -6 vs. Panthers

In order to try and go contrarian and not choose one of the massive favorites, I'm taking Seattle this week. For some reason, they were dismissed against the Lions after their Week 1 loss to the Rams. But the Seahawks bounced back and looked like the team everyone expected them to be in the preseason. Geno Smith looked fantastic throwing for 328 yards, two touchdowns and no picks. Carolina has a pretty good defense but they won't be able to score.

Bryce Young not only got drafted by one of the worst teams, but he has no offensive line. He was sacked four times Monday night and four times in Week 1. Young has throw two interceptions while fumbling once, but he has no weapons. To ask him to go into the loudest stadium and win on the road with a bad o-line, is asking too much.

Seahawks 24 - Panthers 10

Chiefs -12 vs. Bears

Have people finally realized Justin Fields is not good? Can the excuses please stop already? All offseason I heard, Fields needs more weapons, better protection and a defense. Well whether he has weapons or not,  doesn't excuse the fact that he can't play quarterback. Watch this play and tell me he is an above average starter. The good quarterbacks win without a good supporting cast. Fields is clearly not it and Vegas has finally realized it with this spread.

Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs will not lose this game. But you may want to consider saving them.

Chiefs 35 - Bears 17

Cowboys -12.5 at Cardinals

Dallas has beaten down on both New York teams so far. The defense has dominated the Giants and the Aaron Rodgers-less Jets. Now they get another chance to dominate one of the worst teams in football. The Cowboys offense will control the clock, run the ball, not turn it over and get out of Arizona with an easy W.

Cowboys 27 - Cardinals 13

49ers -10 vs. Giants

San Francisco hosts the Giants on Thursday night. The Giants will be without Saquon Barkley so the offense falls on Daniel Jones against one of the best defenses. Good luck with that. Again the only question is whether you want to save the Niners for later in the season.

49ers 24 - Giants 10

Jaguars -9.5 vs. Texans

Jacksonville has the perfect chance to rebound from their tough 17-9 loss to the Chiefs. They didn't score an offensive touchdown but that will change early on Sunday. Jacksonville will beat up on the bad teams this year, especially those in their division. But there will be plenty of other chances to use this team this season.

Jaguars 34 - Texans 17

Top Survivor Pool Picks to Avoid for Week 3

Ravens -8 vs. Colts

Indy could be without rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson who was knocked out Sunday with a concussion. But they have one of the best backups in football, Gardner Minshew, who could be a starter on some teams. He went 19/23 for 171 yards, one touchdown and no interceptions. Minshew knows what to do and is more competent than many other starters in this league.

When the Ravens play a below average team, they usually jump ahead early and let their run game take care of the rest. I could see a similar scenario happening here. But with Minshew starting, the Colts are very live.

Colts 23 - Ravens 21

Bills -6.5 at Commanders

It's hard to make both these teams out after two weeks. Buffalo could not have looked worse against the Jets and gave that game away. But then they destroyed the Raiders. Washington nearly lost to Arizona in Week 1 and had to mount an enormous comeback to beat the Broncos. More needs to be seen here.

Bills 21 - Commanders 19

Dolphins -6.5 vs. Broncos

It's been only two weeks but Miami looks like they're in mid-season form. Tua Tagovailoa threw for 466 yards in Week 1 and 249 yards Sunday night against New England. But it was running back Raheem Mostert who kept getting first downs icing the game. Mostert finished with 121 yards on 18 carries. They just have so many weapons and it's not just on offense. Their defense shut down the Patriots running game while sacking Mac Jones four times.

This is going to be a kitchen sink game for the 0-2 Broncos. How they lost to Washington is baffling. There are no excuses to blow that lead the way they were playing. So if they lose this one, could this be it for Russell Wilson? Denver is going to throw everything they can at Miami hoping to avoid an 0-3 start. Still, it may not be enough.

Also, I expected this line to be around eight or nine with the way Miami has looked.

Dolphins 24 - Broncos 23

NFL Best Bets for Week 3

• Seahawks -6 vs. Panthers
• Packers -2 vs. Saints - New Orleans is 2-0 but hasn't looked too good. Their offense has done just enough, but they'll need more points in Lambeau.
• Eagles -5.5 at Bucs - Because Philly hasn't looked the way they did last year, people are already wondering if they're alright? Give me the points here and watch them prove to a national television audience there's nothing wrong with them.

2023 Season Running Totals

• Last week: 2-1
• 2023 season: 3-3
• 2022 season: 28-23-3
• 2021 season: 27-26-1
• 2020 season: 24-27
• 2019 season: 23-26-2

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