NFL Survivor Pool Picks (Week 11) - Targets and Avoids

November 18, 2018

NFL expert Seth I. Finkelstein gives you his top NFL survivor pool picks for Week 11 of the NFL season and his best bets against the spread.

Week 10 was a gloomy day for the favorites. The Falcons and Patriots were soundly beaten on the road. The Jets were mauled at home while the Eagles were surprisingly beaten.

The favorites that did take care of business; the Saints, Rams, Chiefs, Chargers, and Bears.

With nearly all participants in survivor pools eliminated, you may not find a need to read this column. However, some survivor pools have restarted. There's still plenty of good tidbits to help you with your daily fantasy squads. Plus, my best bets against the spread are at the bottom of this column.

Nuggets from Week 10

• The Bills scored their most points (41) since Oct. 16, 2016 (45)
• The Redskins were out-gained by the Bucs by 215 yards, and won by 13 points
• The Steelers scored their most-ever points at Heinz Field (52)
• The Bears have had three consecutive wins by double-digits for the first time since Weeks 2-4 in 2012
• The Cardinals have scored 124 points this season, that's only 29 more than the Saints have scored the last two weeks (95)

Survivor League Strategy

For those of you unfamiliar with survivor pools it’s very simple; pick a team to win each week. If they win you move on to the next week. But you cannot use that team ever again. There is no point spread involved.

Teams italicized are my best bets.

Before making any picks, look at the point spreads. Vegas has the best minds, smarter than any of us. Use them to get a glimpse at how each team is projected to fare that week.

Teams favored by more than seven in Week 11 per The Action Network app (home team in caps):

• SAINTS -9 vs. Eagles
• CHARGERS -7 vs. Broncos

If you're reading this article on Thursday or later, these lines are from Wednesday. Check the current spreads and see how the line moved.

Teams on bye: Bills, Browns, Dolphins, 49ers, Jets, Patriots

Top Survivor Picks for Week 11

In order of my favorite selections:

Texans -3 @ REDSKINS

One of my favorite gambling trends comes into play this week: road favorite off a bye. Since 2002, road favorites off a bye are 61-23. Why you might ask? RJ Bell was on the Against All Odds podcast with Cousin Sal last year and explained this trend at the 47:35 mark.

"The team that's traveling is clearly better. Because you can't be favored on the road unless you're clearly better. But because you're clearly better, you have the distractions on the road. You might be looking ahead. You might be a little beat up from last week. Whatever it is, it's going to cause you not to play your best game, you're more susceptible to a team you think you should easily beat, even more susceptible on the road. That's why road favorites are so dangerous. Well, when you have a bye, all that stuff goes out the window. If you haven't played for two weeks, you're not going to look ahead. You're going to be focused on that team. You're not going to be tired. All the things that make traveling tough, you have that total focus."

Washington is the most Jekyll and Hyde team. I've been saying that for weeks and it continues to be true. The Redskins should have lost to the Bucs last week. Tampa had 215 more yards and 14 more first downs, but lost the crucial stat that ultimately decides the outcome; turnovers. They turned it over four times while the Redskins did not turn it over once. That won't be the case Sunday because Houston is in the bottom-half of the league in turning it over.

Another major factor in this game will be Houston's defensive line against Washington's ravaged offensive line. It's going to be awfully hard to block J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney. The Texans defense is also one of the best in the league. They allow fourth-least yards per play. If the Bucs, one of the league's worst defenses, could hold Washington to 5.2 yards per play, than Houston may dominate.

Another good stat; off a bye, Bill O'Brien is 3-1 straight-up and 4-0 against the spread.

Texans 27 - Redskins 21

FALCONS -3 vs. Cowboys

The classic game where a team off a monster win has a letdown against a team off a terrible loss. These two teams are complete opposites in terms on both sides of the ball. Dallas's offense is 25th in yards per play while Atlanta is fifth. Dallas's defense is eighth in opponent yards per play while Atlanta's is 31st. Both are bottom five in third-down percentage and opponent third-down percentage.

The reason I love Atlanta is because this team is vastly different at home versus the road. At home they average 32 points per game, while on the road that number is 21. Dallas's defense won't be able to stop the Falcons forever and Dak Prescott won't be able to keep pace with Matt Ryan.

Falcons 31 - Cowboys 21

GIANTS -1 vs. Bucs - Tampa is dead last in turnover margin. I'm not sure why they're getting so much respect when they've won one of their last seven. They are 30th in opponent yards per play and 23rd in team sacks. They only sacked Alex Smith three times on Sunday and that was against a dismantled offensive line. The way to beat the Giants is by getting pressure on Eli Manning because once he senses any sort of pressure, he's checking down to Saquon Barkley. Manning will have time to pick apart a team allowing the second-most passing yards on the road.

Top Survivor Picks to Avoid

Raiders +4 @ CARDINALS

These teams are both awful, but there's no reason Arizona should be favored by anyone at home more than the standard three. Besides for Arizona being 10th in opponent yards per play, these teams both stink stat-wise. Oakland seems to have hit rock-bottom, it can't get much worse, or can it?

Raiders 23 - Cardinals 17

Broncos +7 @ CHARGERS

I've been saying this weekly about the Chargers, but I keep finding it so hard to take them laying more than a touchdown. Denver is not any good, but this is a divisional rivalry and I think they keep it close.

Chargers 31 - Broncos 27

Eagles +9 @ SAINTS

The Saints have won eight in a row and scored 96 points their last two games. They can't be stopped. But now they run into a desperate team off an embarrassing home loss on national television. They right now are 4-5 and can only afford two more losses, maybe even one. Throw out the stats on this one, the Eagles play their best when they are underdogs. They wore those dog masks throughout the playoffs en route to a Super Bowl victory. Nobody believed in them then, and now nobody believes in them again.

Eagles 31 - Saints 28

JAGUARS +6 vs. Steelers

Two teams trending in completely opposite directions. The Steelers have won five in a row while the Jags have lost five in a row. Jacksonville beat the Steelers twice last year, both times in Pittsburgh with one of them being in the playoffs. There is no way Jacksonville can keep pace with Pittsburgh, but can their defense do just enough to keep them in the game? If they hold the Steelers to 24 points, the Jags have a shot. Pittsburgh wins, but Jacksonville covers.

Steelers 24 - Jaguars 23

The Rest 

SEAHAWKS -2.5 vs. Packers (Thursday night) - Green Bay may have been dealt the worst schedule the past four weeks. Off their bye, they traveled to Los Angeles, then back across the country to New England, back to Green Bay, and now to Seattle on a short week. The fact that Seattle isn't getting the standard three points at home is baffling. Surprisingly, the Packers are tied for the league in team sacks, but Russell Wilson can evade the sacks. Under Pete Carroll, Seattle is 7-1 on Thursday night including a perfect 3-0 at home.

Bengals @ RAVENS (no line) - Will Joe Flacco or Lamar Jackson start? Nonetheless, Cincinnati has won three of their last four in Baltimore.

Panthers -4 @ LIONS - Carolina had an extra four days to prepare after getting humiliated on national television last Thursday night. The Lions have been so bad the last three weeks getting outscored by 13.6 points per game. Cam Newton will be the difference maker in this one.

Titans +1.5 @ COLTS - What a big AFC South battle this is. Both teams are hot. I think this will be a very low-scoring game as both defenses are very good.

Vikings +2.5 @ BEARS (Sunday night) - Mitchell Trubisky will have to make some throws on national television. The Vikings are tied for the league in team sacks so Trubisky will be under pressure all night. The Vikings secondary is lights out also allowing the second-best opponent yards per attempt through their last three, 4.9. They are off their bye so will be healthy.

Chiefs +3.5 @ RAMS (Monday night) - The biggest and most anticipated game of the season has been moved to Los Angeles. I think the Rams win by three.

My Running Season Total

• Best bet ATS record: 13-16-1
• This week: Texans -3, Giants -1, Eagles +9
• Last week: 1-2

Good luck RotoBallers, and I'll be back next week previewing Week 12.

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