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Steve Janik's top NFL betting picks and best bets for Super Bowl LVII. His free picks target the moneyline and under.
We head into the big game with an incredible matchup between the two surefire best teams in both conferences, Philadelphia and Kansas City. This should make you as a football (and gambling) fan excited, but also sad because it's the last game of the NFL season. We know it looms faster and faster every year. However, it never makes it easier to say goodbye to football for the next six months.
It's been a somewhat up-and-down season for my picks, but for the most part, I've been happy with the progression through the year. Unless all goes wrong, it will have been a positive season, both record and units-wise, here on RotoBaller, my fifth with the site. It's been a long, tough season with so many twists and turns affecting the betting mind weekly, but in the end, that's what makes this fun.
- 2022 Record: 25-22, +2.1 units
- Spread: 7-6, +0.15 units
- Total/Team Total: 11-14, -4.25 units
- Moneyline: 5-2, +3.5 units
- Props: 0-0
- Parlays/Teasers: 2-0, +2.7 units
Be sure to follow me on Twitter @stevejanik6 and on Action Network. Now down to the nitty-gritty – please remember this is all for entertainment. With that, I hope you enjoy it, best of luck, and please bet responsibly!
Editor's Note: Stay on top of your draft prep with RotoBaller’s fantasy football rankings, featuring expert analysis, ADPs, and draft insights for both PPR and non-PPR leagues.
Super Bowl LVII Betting Picks - Moneyline & Total
Kansas City Chiefs at Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5)
Sunday 2/12, 6:30pm PM EST | O/U: 50.5
The Chiefs met their match in the Bengals in the AFC Championship game but ultimately prevailed thanks to some late-game calls in their favor. Patrick Mahomes certainly didn't look too bothered by his ankle, throwing for 326 yards and two touchdowns. He looked so comfy that the team almost entirely abandoned the run. The offense may get a boost in that department with Clyde Edwards-Helaire (ankle) being activated from IR. There's no guarantee he plays, but the one thing we can guarantee is Travis Kelce being the most targeted person on the field on Sunday.
The KC defense did a good job slowing down the Bengals' strong passing attack. It started up front with Joe Burrow getting sacked five times but being able to hold Tee Higgins and Ja'Marr Chase each under 100 yards was huge. They'll definitely have their hands full in this one with Philly's run game being so dominant but also having to worry about a game-changing receiving corps.
Philadelphia has been the darling all season and here they are set to play in their first Super Bowl since 2017. Jalen Hurts is an MVP candidate with playmakers all around him. Miles Sanders has helped pace the ground game while A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert give Hurts more than enough options to throw to. Of course, we can't forget the running threat that Hurts is himself. The Eagles have scored 38 and 31 points, respectively, through two playoff games. They aren't exactly facing the '85 Bears so it will be interesting to see their gameplan offensively.
Defensively, this Eagles unit is as tough a test as Mahomes has seen all season. While we expect his ankle to be near full strength, the 70 sacks Philly has tallied in the regular season are just two short of an NFL record. They've added eight more in the playoffs so far, which means Mahomes will be busy in the pocket, which the Eagles hope can lead to a turnover or two in a key moment.
I jumped on the Philadelphia moneyline almost the second the lines opened up. I got them at a great price of -106. It's since jumped slightly to around -121 to -125. I still think that's the correct play, but if you want to lay off the juice, I think the -1.5 is a good play. I'm also dropping a half unit on the under 50.5. No doubt about it, both of these teams are elite offensively, but both sides are also going in with two weeks of game planning to try and slow each other down.
Pick: Philadelphia ML (-120, BetMGM) Bet to win 1 Unit | Under 50.5 (-105, Fanduel) Bet to win .5 unit
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