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Jake Finnen provides his NBA DFS prop picks for Friday, October 29th, 2021 on Monkey Knife Fight. Make your DFS picks with his fantasy basketball advice.
Friday does not consist of a massive slate, but three games out of the seven are sure to stir up excitement. Focusing on Mavericks-Nuggets, Clippers-Trail Blazers, and Kings-Pelicans, the early games of the night don't stick out nearly as much on paper, but when you have two teams like the Raptors and Magic facing each other, there's so much that can go wrong, it can actually go right. The focus will be on the four games above, but there are plenty of targets throughout the other three games.
The Nets are eight-point favorites over the Pacers with James Harden not providing a ton of spark, so the talent of the Nets should still be able to win regardless if Malcolm Brogdon and Domantas Sabonis have solid outings. Charlotte is playing well, but the Heat defense is a nuisance and it should be tough for the Hornets to get their offense going outside of their primary playmakers. Depending on which Lakers play, stacking two if a third rests has been a promising strategy, so assume that will be the case most nights. Feel free to go to the NBA Chat Room to ask about specific games and bets, but these following four bets are your best options for tonight. Some of these wagers are based on fantasy points, so make sure you are understanding where you place your money.
MonkeyKnifeFight.com is always ahead of the curve with their canceling of contests amid postponements, so don't worry about wasting money on a player or game that might not play. As always, you can find me in the NBA Chat Room or @HalfCourtJester on Twitter with any questions, especially since lines and players are subject to change throughout the day.
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ORL @ TOR
O.G. Anunoby (TOR) MORE 31.5 Fantasy Points - Wendell Carter Jr. (ORL) MORE 28.5 Points
This has to be the best bet of the night. Both teams are struggling for offense, and despite having point guards that can provide structure, it's usually not enough to vault their team to victory. O.G. Anunoby is averaging just under 20 points a game, also providing just over two steals combined with numerous other hustle stats. Anunoby is basically surpassing this projected on points alone and is facing a fairly inexperienced defense.
Wendell Carter Jr. is slightly more of a toss-up, but he's found a workable role in the Magic frontcourt where he has an impact on the court and in the box score. He is capable of having big games because of his rebounding and blocking ability, and against the Raptors defense, he's likely to become an offensive threat now that he doesn't have to worry about defending Pascal Siakam.
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SAC @ NOP
Brandon Ingram (NOP) LESS 39.5 Fantasy Points - Harrison Barnes (SAC) MORE 30.5 Fantasy Points
This was a tough one, but the fact of the matter is that Brandon Ingram, despite being the key cog for the Pelicans offense, is taking over 20 shot-attempts nightly and averaging 40 FPTS per game according to NBA.com. Those aren't bad numbers, but in games where he might see increased usage, that doesn't mean he is automatically going to surpass his projected. Yes, the potential is there, but his turnovers increase drastically in games where he is asked to do more, and the Kings have not been an easy team to beat this season.
Harrison Barnes has been the driving force behind the Kings prominence with his scoring, and barely including any other stats, it's easy to see why you take the over here. Barnes has been consistent lately and even though this seems contradictory to what was said about Ingram, Barnes has been, statistically, the better player and the Kings are the better team.
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DAL @ DEN
Luka Doncic (DAL) LESS 49.5 Fantasy Points - Nikola Jokic (MEM) MORE 49.5 Fantasy Points
Last night against the Spurs, the Mavericks starters were basically run off the court. Their bench was able to stop the bleeding and force a close game, but Luka Doncic, along with Tim Hardaway and Dwight Powell had a poor start to last night's game. It doesn't inspire much faith in them tonight against the, somewhat, rested Nuggets. It's just a few games into the season, but Doncic isn't performing at the level he usually does, so there's no reason to see him owning the Nuggets defense tonight even if he's done it in the past.
If Doncic decided to dedicate any effort to defense this game, it'll be to help whatever offense Nikola Jokic is dictating. Jokic isn't putting up MVP-numbers every night like last season, but he is safely putting up 50 FPTS a game in most cases. Seeing how he won't be lining up against Rudy Gobert, or anyone even close to mimicking Gobert's presence, Jokic will have unusually free range in Denver's half-court offense.
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LAC @ POR
C.J. McCollum (POR) MORE 34.5 Fantasy Points - Reggie Jackson (LAC) MORE 27.5 Points
C.J. McCollum has been carrying this Trail Blazers offense through the start of the season and when he is averaging close to 25 points a game and contributing every game on the defensive end, you cannot take the under here under any circumstance. McCollum has been too good and even if this bet is bait with Reggie Jackson, any where you can find McCollum around this range for a prop bet, you take it. Just don't also bet on Reggie Jackson.
Since we are forced to, we can look at the numbers and assume that, if Jackson randomly has a big game here, that's all it was. Jackson has been consistent in his role and production, so there's not too much to worry about in terms of him just having a big game since he has to play alongside Eric Bledsoe and Paul George, but there is also a tiny, tiny chance, Jackson could be more focused on the Clippers next game against the Thunder.
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