Monday Night Football Matchups Analysis: Giants vs Buccaneers

November 2, 2020

Fantasy football starts/sits and lineups advice for the Giants vs. Bucs MNF game in Week 8. Dan Fornek analyzes the matchups with a detailed breakdown.

We are officially on to Week 8. At the moment, it is worth noting that the Giants had to send several offensive linemen home last week due to one of their players testing positive. At this time, there is no indication that this game is in danger of not being played, but make sure to monitor that closely through the weekend. Unfortunately for fantasy fans, this game may look more similar to last week's tilt between the Bears and Rams than the Sunday night slugfest between Seattle and Arizona.

The Giants come into this Monday night matchup limping with a 1-6 record. Their one win came against the Washington Football Team and was thanks to a decision by Washington head coach Ron Rivera to go for the two-point conversion over a PAT on the game-tying touchdown at the end of regulation. The Giants will be missing Saquon Barkley (ACL) and potentially Devonta Freeman (ankle) this week. The lack of growth from Daniel Jones (1,410 yards with five touchdowns and seven interceptions) is concerning, but he will finally have his full complement of wide receivers for just the third time this season. The Giants' defense has also struggled this season, giving Tampa a chance to have a big day.

On the other side of this matchup, the Buccaneers offense has been clicking lately thanks to the efforts of Tom Brady. Brady has thrown for 1,910 yards and 18 touchdowns with four interceptions despite missing weapons like Chris Godwin, O.J. Howard, and Leonard Fournette throughout stretches of the year. The Buccaneers will be without Chris Godwin in this matchup and still don't have Antonio Brown in their offense as he awaits the conclusion of his suspension. Brady will have to lean on Mike Evans, Rob Gronkowski, and a two-headed run attack with Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones to win this week. That, combined with a suffocating run defense and above-average pass defense, should prove to be a challenge to the Giants.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Giants

• Game time: Monday 11/2 @ 8:15 PM EST
• Game line: Tampa Bay -12
• Over/Under: 45
• (Original game lines and over/under listed above. These have since been removed due to COVID concerns)

Must-Starts

Tom Brady (QB, TB)

Tom Brady is finally finding his stride with his new team. Brady bounced back from a couple of underwhelming performances against the Bears and Packers with 369 yards and four touchdowns against the Raiders. Brady hasn’t thrown an interception since Week 4 and has multiple touchdowns in five of seven games this season. Brady is now completing 65% of his passes for 1,910 yards and 18 touchdowns on the season.

The Giants have been solid against quarterbacks this season (17.6 points allowed per week) thanks to a strong 11 to 5 touchdown to interception ratio. With that being said, the Giants also haven’t faced a quarterback of Brady’s stature since Week 1 against the Steelers (assuming we don’t ignore Dak Prescott’s ankle injury). It is far from a great matchup, but considering bye weeks, he has top-12 QB upside every week.

Leonard Fournette (RB, TB)

After missing several weeks with an ankle injury, Leonard Fournette may have carved out his role in the Buccaneers rushing attack. Fournette played 56% of the offensive snaps on Sunday, carrying the ball 11 times for 50 yards while adding six receptions (on seven targets) for 47 yards. After the game, Bruce Arians admitted that Fournette had seized control of the passing game and no-huddle roles in the Buccaneers’ offense.

If the above holds, Fournette is poised to start taking over a significant share of the Tampa Bay offense. The Giants have been fine against rushers on the ground this season (605 yards and four touchdowns surrendered), but have been susceptible to running backs in the passing game. Opposing RB’s have 40 receptions for 361 yards and three touchdowns this season. There is some risk relying on the Buccaneers run game, but it's possible Arians wants to see what Fournette can do with a bigger role in a game the Bucs should control easily.

Mike Evans (WR, TB)

Fantasy players who drafted Mike Evans early have to be concerned about his lack of consistency in the Tampa Bay pass game so far. In the four games that Evans’ has played in, he has six receptions on 12 targets for 51 yards and two touchdowns. In the three games without Godwin, Evans has 19 receptions on 27 targets for 167 yards and three touchdowns. Luckily, Godwin has already been ruled out of Week 8’s contest against the Giants thanks to a broken finger.

Evans will likely draw shadow coverage from James Bradberry, who has been fantastic this season. However, Evans has experience against Bradberry in his career from when the Buccaneers would face off against the Panthers. Evans has been suffering through injury issues of his own all season but has been able to play a majority of the snaps for Tampa Bay despite the injuries. Ultimately, Evans is a must-play since he will operate as the Buccaneers’ alpha receiver once again.

Scott Miller (WR, TB)

With Chris Godwin out, Scott Miller is poised to reprise his role as the vertical passing weapon for Tom Brady. Miller was targeted nine times last week against the Raiders, catching six passes for 109 yards and a touchdown. In six games this season, Miller has gone for five or more targets four times and has at least 83 receiving yards in three contests. Miller also had a season-high 151 air yards, showing that Brady has found his deep threat to open up players underneath the safety coverage.
Miller has appeal as a WR3 or FLEX play this week given the Giants woes in the secondary outside of James Bradberry. Don’t be afraid to give him a start if bye weeks have your wide receiver corps in shambles.

Sterling Shepard (WR, NYG)

Sterling Shepard had a solid first game back for the Giants against Philadelphia, catching six of eight targets for 59 yards and a touchdown in a losing effort. Shepard showed no ill effects from his turf toe injury, playing in 77% of his team’s snaps. When healthy, Jones has shown he trusts Shepard based on his target share from Weeks 1 and 7 this season. The Buccaneers have done well against wide receivers this year, averaging 20.2 points surrendered to the position this season. Ultimately, the Giants will be playing from behind most of the night, which should boost Shepard’s production.

Consider Sitting

Daniel Jones (QB, NYG)

Daniel Jones has been bad this season. Like, real bad. Jones has failed to throw for more than 200 yards in four of the Giants’ last five games. At that same time, he has three touchdowns and four interceptions. On one hand, the injuries to Saquon Barkley and Sterling Shepard caused some problems with the Giants’ offense. On the other, two of his last three opponents consisted of the porous Dallas secondary and an average Philly defense. This week, he gets the third-best fantasy defense against quarterbacks. Tampa Bay is allowing just 13.6 fantasy points per week to quarterbacks and has as many touchdowns allowed as interceptions generated (9). Jones is a stay away this week.

Devonta Freeman (RB, NYG)

Devonta Freeman had to leave the Giants’ Week 7 game against Philadelphia after three carries for eight yards due to an ankle injury. Despite having a long week to recover, Freeman has been practicing off to the side for the Giants this week, suggesting he will either be limited or unlikely to play on Sunday. If he does go, he faces a brutal matchup against the Tampa Bay run defense, a fierce unit that is allowing just 14.8 points per game against them this year. Tampa has allowed less than 700 yards combined in the rushing and receiving game to running backs. Avoid the injury risk and find a better option on your bench or in waivers.

Ronald Jones (RB, TB)

Was Week 7 the beginning of the end for Ronald Jones? Leonard Fournette saw a significant workload in his first game back from injury and was tabbed as the Buccaneers receiving and tempo running back this past week. Consequently, it was the least productive week of football for Ronald Jones in a while. Jones still registered 13 carries against the Raiders, but that was his lowest total since Week 3 against Denver. Rojo’s 34 yards are his second-lowest total of the year, but at least his fantasy day was salvaged by a late goal-line carry in a blowout win. Until we have a better grasp of how Bruce Arians truly wants to utilize his running backs, it is probably safe to put Ronald Jones on the backburner. The Giants have been better against running backs on the ground instead of through the air this year, which could lead to even more Fournette usage.

Golden Tate (WR, NYG)

After four weeks of a solid target share, Golden Tate has struggled to make his mark in the Giants’ passing attack. Tate has been targeted three times in the last two weeks, catching two passes for 50 yards and a touchdown. Tate hasn’t surpassed 50 receiving yards in a game yet this season, and the return of Sterling Shepard likely cuts into his role on the field (Tate played in only 47% of the offensive snaps in Week 7, a season-low). The only clear path to him having a big role would be a blowout, which is possible, but hard to bank on as your last game of the week.

Evan Engram (TE, NYG)

Evan Engram was considered a solid tight end option in fantasy drafts this season, and so far he has failed to launch (much like most of the Giants’ offense). Engram has been targeted 44 times this year, but he only has 26 receptions for 223 yards and zero touchdowns. Unfortunately, new offensive coordinator Jason Garrett is still using the Jason Witten route tree instead of utilizing his tight ends athletic gifts. Engram is averaging just 8.6 yards per reception, two full yards lower than any other season in his career. The Buccaneers are allowing just 7.1 fantasy points per game to tight ends this season, which is pretty solid. Engram is a bench player unless you find yourself completely desperate.

Rob Gronkowski (TE, TB)

After weeks of underwhelming production, Rob Gronkowski has seemingly played himself back into playing shape. Since Week 5, Gronk has been targeted 22 times, catching 13 passes for 192 yards and two touchdowns. Gronk has started to see his targets open up down the field, which is making him a very interesting weekly play at the tight end position. The Giants have been very stout against tight ends this season, giving up just 5.8 points per week and surrendering only one touchdown on the entire season. Gronk has been doing well as of late but maybe worth watching from the bench if you have a more solid TE1 option.

Potential Sleepers

Wayne Gallman (RB, NYG)

If Devonta Freeman is unable to play (or winds up active but on a limited basis), then Wayne Gallman is the back to roster for the Giants. Gallman tallied 53% of the offensive plays for the Giants in Week 7, carrying the ball 10 times for 34 yards and a touchdown. He also had a role in the passing game, catching all five of his targets for 20 yards. The Buccaneers are a top-five defense is a terrible matchup against the run, and that is even more true now that the Giants offensive line has been quarantined thanks to a positive test during the week. But if your team is decimated by bye weeks and injuries, Gallman represents a playable running back this week.

Tyler Johnson (WR, TB)

Tyler Johnson has found a way to carve out a role for the Buccaneers (until Godwin is healthy and Antonio Brown joins the team of course). Since Week 5, the rookie receiver has nine targets, seven receptions, 72 yards, and two touchdowns (one each in the last two weeks). Johnson will have a bigger role this week (and probably get some snaps out of the slot) thanks to Chris Godwin’s finger injury. The last time Godwin missed a game (Week 5 against the Bears), Johnson played 79% of the Buccaneers snaps and was targeted 6 times. Johnson will avoid James Bradberry and is a volatile FLEX play with touchdown upside this week.

Darius Slayton (WR, NYG)

The return of Sterling Shepard also hurt Darius Slayton in the passing game against the Eagles. Slayton was targeted three times, catching two passes for 23 yards. Since his offensive explosion against Dallas in Week 5 (11 targets, eight receptions, 129 yards), Slayton has struggled to make a mark. He still has enough upside to be a boom or bust starter. All it takes is one big play for him to have a massive fantasy day and he is still seeing a consistent snap share on offense (92%). As long as he is out there running routes, he can score huge points to win fantasy weeks.

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