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John's top NFL DFS lineup picks for FanDuel, and DraftKings for Monday Night Football - Colts vs Ravens showdown slate. His Week 5 MNF daily fantasy football advice.
Happy Monday RotoBallers! I hope your Week Five has been profitable so far. I had a solid day myself yesterday, sweeping the day in cash across the four major slates. Tonight we head to Baltimore to see the Ravens (3-1) take on the Colts (1-3). Bookmakers have Baltimore favored at seven points even in this one, with the total sitting at 46.5. It doesn't appear that we should have any weather issues like last night, as the forecast is clear with the chance of rain in single digits throughout the game. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's break it down.
In this article I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Monday Night Football slate on October 11th. These lineups can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
If you have any questions you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts any time you'd like. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it!
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NFL DFS Captain Plays
Lamar Jackson ($18,900 DK, $17,000 FD)
Despite the Ravens' 3-1 record, Lamar has had a relatively slow start to the season, by his standards at least. He has thrown for 1,077 yards in four games, but that comes with just four touchdowns and three interceptions. He's gathered 279 yards on the ground as well, with two touchdowns (both coming against Kansas City in Week Two), and two fumbles lost. The Colts have had a relatively slow start to the year as well, coming into this one with a weighted defensive DVOA of 1.8%, ranking 21st in the league. They've been struggling against the pass, logging a 26.9% DVOA (26th) through four games. It appears that the Ravens may have to move away from the run-first offense tonight and let Lamar do his thing. He always has that rushing floor and will likely be my highest-owned captain tonight by a wide margin.
Jonathan Taylor ($14,700 DK, $14,000 FD)
Another player that's had a relatively slow start to his season is Jonathan Taylor. This can be attributed to the fact that he's splitting fairly evenly with Nyheim Hines, with Taylor hardly out snapping him 49.8% to 41.8%. Taylor has logged 274 yards on 58 attempts but has only reached the end zone once as well as catching 11 of 12 targets for 81 yards. Baltimore is middle of the pack against the run, coming in with a -18.3% DVOA against the run. I think the Colts try to establish the run tonight, and Taylor leads the way on the ground, finding the end zone at least once. I think Hines gets a lot of work in the passing game, so I'll have some Hines shares as well. We'll get to that more in-depth later.
Other Captains: Carson Wentz, Mark Andrews
NFL DFS Flex Plays
Zach Pascal ($8,200 DK, $9,500 FD)
I'll begin this by saying that I'm not a huge fan of how expensive Pascal is (specifically on DK), but with the lack of fantasy-viable options on this slate, he's a noteworthy option. Pascal has caught 15 passes on a respectable 23 targets through the first four games, racking up 156 yards and three touchdowns. It's likely that Michael Pittman Jr. will be lined up across from Marlon Humphrey for most of the night, while Pascal gets a favorable matchup in the slot against Tavon Young. Young has allowed an 80% catch rate and roughly 0.21 fantasy points per route run. I expect Pascal to build on his solid start to the season tonight, receiving the majority of the targets for Indy.
Mark Andrews ($6,600 DK, $12,000 FD)
While I believe that Pascal's DraftKings price is too high, Andrews's price seems way too soft. Andrews has also had a relatively slow start to the season, logging just 18 receptions on 25 targets for 253 yards. Andrews hasn't found the end zone yet, so we should definitely expect some touchdown regression. Despite all of this, though, Andrews has logged at least 10 DK points in each of the last three weeks. He draws a solid matchup tonight, as the Colts come into this one with a DVOA of -0.1% against the tight-end position, which ranks 17th in the league. Andrews has to come back to form at some point this season, so we might as well take advantage of the soft price and load up on him tonight.
Other Flex Plays: Marquise Brown, Latavius Murray
NFL DFS Value Plays
Sammy Watkins ($5,800 DK, $7,500 FD)
I mentioned before that the Ravens may look to throw the ball more tonight, with the Colts being much worse against the pass than the run. Watkins has put up a respectable 257 yards on 16 receptions on the year, with exactly four receptions in each game. He and Lamar are still working out the timing, however, as those 16 receptions have come on 29 targets. I think Sammy is due for a breakout night, as the Colts are dead last against 'WR2s' on the year with a DVOA of 59.8%. While that number makes it seem that Watkins is in for a "smash" night, I do have some concern that Watkins will draw Xavier Rhodes on the snaps that Hollywood Brown takes in the slot. Regardless, the ceiling potential is high enough for Watkins that I'll be playing a decent amount of him on DK and a TON of him on FD.
Nyheim Hines ($5,600 DK, $8,000 FD)
I brought up Hines when talking about Jonathan Taylor earlier, and I really do like both of them tonight. I won't be opposed to playing both of them in the same lineup, but I wouldn't play Hines in lineups I have Taylor at captain/MVP. Hines has had two "boom" weeks and two "bust" weeks, logging 14+ DK points in weeks one and three but less than four points in weeks two and four. I don't expect him to run the ball much, as he's only taken 18 attempts for 70 yards, but I would like to see him get work in the passing game as the Ravens are among the worst in the league against RBs in the passing game. Baltimore comes into this one with a DVOA of 27.9% against RBs catching the ball and with Hines leading Taylor in targets he's likely going to be the go-to guy and should hit value at this price.
Justin Tucker ($4,000 DK, $9,500 FD)
Justin Tucker is the best kicker in football. He proved this two weeks ago against Detroit, where he nailed the longest field goal in NFL history, a game-winner as time expired. There's a chance that Baltimore pushes the ball down the field but stalls once they get into Indianapolis territory, allowing Tucker to knock some field goals down and rack up some fantasy points. I don't expect this one to be a score-fest regardless. I could say the exact same thing about Rodrigo Blankenship, especially considering the issues that Indianapolis has had in the red zone this season. I like both of them tonight and will have them spread out in my lineups.
Other Value Plays: Devin Duvernay, Ravens D/ST, Parris Campbell
Have a good Monday everyone, see you on Thursday.
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