RADIO
After months of watching tape and combing through numbers, we have reached the heart of the fantasy football draft season. This is where everyone is doing research and the draft board tightens.
As that happens, many players will see their ADP pulled up the board. And with the higher price, there are some players that I may reconsider drafting moving forward. However, if I genuinely believe in a player, I pay that price to get them on my team.
It's my favorite time of year. It's time to put my money where my mouth is and flag plant on the players that I want the most in fantasy football. These are the players that will be on my fantasy teams this season. These are my guys.
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Must-Have Quarterbacks
My Guy: Anthony Richardson
I have been talking up Anthony Richardson for fantasy football since I first watched his college tape. Heading into the draft, the Colts were my ideal landing spot for Richardson. After he ended up there, I argued that Richardson should be the Week 1 starter and a top-10 QB off the board. Now that he has been named the starter, I have pushed him up to QB9 in my rankings. In the words of Walter White, “Nothing Stops This Train.”
But why am I so high on him? It's no surprise, but the rushing upside. Richardson is the best rushing QB prospect since Cam Newton. He has the perfect head coach as Shane Steichen was a part of the brain trust that designed the Eagles' offense for Jalen Hurts. And if he runs as I suspect, a breakout season is coming right away.
Since 2010, every QB who has rushed for 700 yards has scored at least 296 fantasy points. That is what Justin Fields scored last year when he finished as the QB6. Every QB who rushed for 800 yards in that span has averaged over 18 fantasy PPG -- which was enough to be a top-eight fantasy QB last season.
The best example remains Fields from last season. He threw for 2,242 yards and 17 touchdowns and still was a fantasy football cheat code. Plus, Richardson being a better passer than anticipated remains in the range of outcomes as the tools are there. If that happens, he can go nuclear. Make sure to target Richardson. You can pair him with one of the veteran QB2s to give you some safety.
Others To Consider
Justin Herbert was the QB2 overall in 2021. In 2022, he and his top pass catchers were dealing with injuries. New OC Kellen Moore should lead to a lot more deep passes and a more explosive offense gives Herbert the potential to enter the elite tier. In addition, you get a round or two discount on Lamar Jackson and Justin Fields -- two other QBs I like this season.
Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, and Patrick Mahomes in the third round are hard to pass up. They all sat around 25 fantasy PPG last season, while Joe Burrow was the only other QB to average over 20 points per game (and he was under 22 per game). This elite trio gives you such a leg up on the position. For the first time, there’s an edge to drafting a QB early.
Deshaun Watson struggled last season after a long layoff, but the odds were stacked against him. He hadn’t played in nearly two years, was with a new team, running a different scheme, and most of the games came in bad weather. But he had been a top-six QB in fantasy PPG in every season prior. We have seen many athletes and even a QB (Mike Vick) return or even exceed their previous form after a layoff. Watson has an elite upside if he can return to form.
Daniel Jones was the QB8 in PPG last season while rushing for over 700 yards and seven touchdowns. He is the most overlooked running QB in fantasy. He comes with an upgraded group of weapons and is in his second year in Brian Daboll’s system. Many think last year was the ceiling, but it's possible Jones reaches a new level this season.
Must-Have Running Backs
My Guy: James Cook
James Cook is going to break out this season. He gets typecast into an RB3 role because that’s what Devin Singletary was in his Bills tenure. But Singletary saw at least 175 carries in each of the last two seasons and at least 50 targets in the last three. Cook would do a whole lot more than be an RB3 if he receives that sort of volume.
Cook led all running backs with a 12 percent explosive run rate (runs of 15-plus yards). Singletary was at seven percent. Cook also finished second amongst running backs with 5.7 yards per carry. His 6.2 yards per touch ranked third. Additionally, Cook is a better and more versatile receiver. We have already seen footage of Cook being used downfield in the passing game, which is not something Singletary did.
And if you are still not sold, the Bills keep singing Cook’s praises. What matters even more is the preseason usage. We have already seen him score a goal-to-go touchdown. In Week 2, he played 15 of the 17 snaps Josh Allen played. The two he didn’t? They were second and 34 and third and 29. Cook should be a top-20 back this season and he brings RB1 upside if he gets work near the goal line.
Others To Consider
Tony Pollard was the RB8 overall last year and Ezekiel Elliott’s departure vacates 231 carries and 27 targets. That won’t all go to Pollard, but he is a lock to see more volume. And do not worry about him -- he got more efficient and explosive last year on a career-high volume. This feels like when Austin Ekeler was freed of Melvin Gordon. He has a path to being the overall RB1 this season.
Jahmyr Gibbs brings explosiveness for days. The Lions had two established veteran backs and still used the 12th pick on Gibbs. That indicates they have big plans for him. He will be a threat to take it the distance anytime he touches the ball and can especially shine as a receiver. There’s a chance he is their second target this season. He reminds me of Alvin Kamara, just with more explosiveness.
Miles Sanders should see a lot of volume after the Panthers made a big financial investment in him. He likely will not replicate the numbers he put up on the ground in Philly last season, but a 1,000-yard rushing season with more pass-game volume is very possible. He brings a top-15 RB upside.
Alvin Kamara is suspended for the first three games of the season but I do not care. It leads to him being drafted as an RB3 in the middle rounds. He has finished as a top-10 RB every year except for last when he was the RB16 overall and RB14 in fantasy PPG. That means from Week 4 on, you get a strong RB2 who still has a low-end RB1 upside. Take advantage.
James Conner has been the RB9 in fantasy PPG in each of the last two seasons. He averaged 19.8 fantasy PPG from Week 10 on, largely without Kyler Murray. He is one of the safest bets for volume at the position and has shown us he can still be highly effective even if the passing game struggles. But concerns over his offense led to him going as a low-end RB2 and sometimes high-end RB3 price. That's a pure buying opportunity.
Khalil Herbert led running backs last year in yards after contact per carry (4.3) and runs that went for 10-plus yards (17 percent). He is the lead back on the Bears and there is talk about him being more utilized in the passing game. Plus, he goes as an RB3 sometimes even later. Take advantage.
Must-Have Wide Receivers
My Guy: Calvin Ridley
Draft Calvin Ridley in the third round this year, no matter what!
Ridley is the final piece to help the Jaguars make the jump and be one of the best offenses in football this season. Doug Pederson’s top target has averaged 123 targets per season and there is an easy case that Ridley is the best receiver he has ever coached. Christian Kirk was the WR12 overall last year in this system and Ridley is both a better field stretcher and red zone presence.
He also was the clear-cut WR1 in this offense in their first preseason game. Ridley has steadily been climbing up draft boards all summer long but do not shy away. Pay up for the breakout season.
Others To Consider
Amari Cooper was the WR10 overall and WR17 in fantasy PPG last season. He has topped 1,000 yards in six of his last eight seasons and scored at least seven touchdowns in five of his last six. He had a career-high nine touchdowns last year and his 16 end zone targets were third at the receiver position. He brings such a safe WR2 floor. But if Deshaun Watson can regain his old form, Cooper could be in store for a career year.
Chris Olave led all rookie receivers in fantasy PPG last season. He did so despite having the second-most air yards left on the field. With a better QB -- especially on deep passes -- Olave brings breakout upside. Do not be surprised if he finishes as a WR1 this season.
Terry McLaurin is being drafted at his floor, going with a WR25 price. Now with new OC Eric Bieniemy in town, there is reason to get optimistic about the Commanders' passing attack. Plus, the QB play could be improved from last season. Either Sam Howell will play well, or we could see a move to Jacoby Brissett if he struggles.
Tyler Lockett is such a value. He outperformed DK Metcalf in fantasy last season despite less volume. He was better on a per route, per touch, and per catch basis. The rumors of his demise are extremely premature. Draft the safe WR2 at a WR3 discount. And if you want to read further, I wrote an entire article on why I like Lockett so much.
Quentin Johnston is one of my favorite WR4 targets this season. Johnston is already great with the ball in his hands after the catch and has made strides as a deep threat. He still has areas in his game he needs to work on, but expect the Chargers' offense to run a lot of three-receiver sets. He will get the least defensive attention of the three. Plus, if anything happens to Keenan Allen or Mike Williams, he could quickly blossom into a WR2.
Kadarius Toney is a player I am not ready to give up on, especially since his ADP keeps going down as he is currently sidelined. He averaged 3.0 yards per route ran with the Chiefs, which would have led the league. He also drew a target on 30 percent of his routes. Add in that he plays with the best QB and play-caller on the planet in Patrick Mahomes. Toney can still blossom into Tyreek Hill lite for this offense.
Jameson Williams is both injured and suspended. It leads to him falling even further into the double-digit rounds of fantasy drafts. He is extremely explosive and on a team that will be searching for a second receiver to step up. There is a high upside at a low cost here.
Must-Have Tight Ends
My Guy: Darren Waller
Darren Waller is arguably the most guy of all these guys. He is my most drafted tight end and I am willing to pull him up as high as the fifth round to secure him. He is my second-ranked tight end right behind Travis Kelce.
Last year, Darren Waller averaged 1.7 yards per route run, which was on par with T.J. Hockenson and in the same range as all the other top tight ends. That was despite seeing less volume, as Davante Adams was the new target vacuum in town. To combat the decrease in volume, the Raiders were using Waller more downfield. Now, he joins the Giants and Brian Daboll, who has shown the capability to scheme to a player's strengths. The entire Giants passing game is going to revolve around Waller.
Outside of Kelce, there is no better bet for volume at the position than Waller. Health is the only concern, but that is already why he gets drafted as the fifth tight end or later, on average. A monster season is coming from Waller.
Others To Consider
Kyle Pitts is a player I just cannot quit on. Last season, 59 percent of his targets were deemed uncatchable. But he was being used the way I wanted. He was lining up all over the field and saw by far the deepest targets at the position before getting injured. Add in that I expect the Falcons will have to throw more. Pitts brings all the same upside as last year, but he goes a few rounds later.
Travis Kelce was the most significant advantage in fantasy football last season -- and maybe ever. He scored over 100 more fantasy points than the second tight end. He averaged over 15 fantasy points for a record-setting fifth straight season. George Kittle was the only other tight end to average over 13 fantasy points last year. I don’t care that he goes in the first round, he is worth it.
David Njoku was the TE8 in fantasy PPG last season. His 20 red zone targets were the second-most at the position. Plus, there is a huge QB and offensive upgrade if Deshaun Watson can return to form. You may notice -- I am high on the Browns' offense this season.
Make sure to follow Michael on Twitter, @MichaelFFlorio.
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