X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Fading Tyler Lockett Is A Mistake: Does The Best Seahawks WR Have The Lowest ADP?

Tyler Lockett - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Last year I was out on the Seahawks' passing game. After trading their franchise quarterback Russell Wilson to the Denver Broncos, I thought the passing game was sure to decrease. While I did think Geno Smith was better than Drew Lock, I did not think Smith would throw for more yards than Wilson ever did. And I surely thought fading the Seahawks' receivers was the move. Oof. 

A Pro Bowl season by Smith later, the Seahawks receivers were just as good as they were with Wilson. Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf each finished as Top 16 receivers overall. Those who took the gamble on them – especially Lockett at a very depressed ADP – were greatly rewarded. Then the Seahawks selected Jaxon Smith-Njigba – mine and many others' WR1 in this draft class – as the 20th overall pick. 

Since the draft, the narrative with the Seahawks receivers has been to fade Lockett and draft him last of this bunch. Metcalf is still going around where he was before the draft, meanwhile, JSN has climbed up the board, going second of this bunch. Is the market appropriately valuing this trio? 

 

How Will Seattle’s Offense Look Differently in 2023

The one thing the draft has indicated for sure is that the Seahawks' offense will look different than it did in 2022. Last season the Seahawks ran 11 personnel (three wide receiver sets) on just 54 percent of plays. That ranked 25th in the NFL and was below the league average of 62 percent. Last season they ran two tight end sets 30 percent of the time, tied for the highest rate in the league. 

After drafting Smith-Njigba, they seem like a lock to run more three wide receiver sets. The question that we will not know the answer to until the season actually begins is just how much more. I would anticipate a large jump, but there will still be plays when only two receivers are on the field. The belief that has led to Smith-Njigba getting drafted over Lockett is that he will take over as the season progresses and not only outperform Lockett, but even play over him. 

The one thing that certainly is not changing? The head coach. Pete Carroll is a player's coach for a reason. He is highly loyal to his players. Lockett is the longest-tenured Seahawk, is a team captain, and has played at a high level for a long time for Carroll. Why does this matter? Because it will carve the path for Lockett to remain in two receiver sets. It would take JSN outplaying Lockett – and likely by a pretty wide margin – for that switch to occur this season. 

Smith-Njigba is a very talented receiver. He was my WR1 in his draft class for a reason and brings a long-term upside, but I have a hard time seeing him leapfrogging Lockett in the pecking order this season. It's not like you can bank on an injury either. Lockett has played 127 of a possible 130 career games, while Metcalf has never missed a game in four seasons. The only way a switch like this would occur is if Lockett was to decline and fast. This leads to the next question – has he shown any signs of decline?

 

Has Lockett Shown Signs of Decline

Last season Lockett finished with 117 targets, 84 catches, 1,033 yards, and nine touchdowns. It was his fourth straight season with over 1,000 yards and with at least eight touchdowns. It was also his third time in four years with over 80 catches. Basically, if you looked at the back of his football card, nothing would stand out in the basic numbers. What about when you dive into the analytics?

Last season he averaged 2.1 yards per route, which is exactly what he has averaged over his last five seasons. His 23 percent target rate – which is the number of routes a player is targeted on – was his highest in any season since 2018. There was a decrease in his expected points added (EPA) last season. His 0.30 EPA per target and 0.7 EPA per route were both lows in that span. However, since there was a QB change it is only fair to look at the same numbers for Metcalf. Not only did Metcalf post a career low in EPA as a whole and on a per-target and route basis, but he posted lower rates than Lockett (more on that later). 

The numbers do not show any signs of decline yet for Lockett. I understand that you can get old quickly in the NFL and Lockett will be turning 31 during the season. As a receiver who has always relied on efficiency, not showing any dip in the metrics is important. Plus, a change to 11 personnel may only help Lockett. 

Last year in 11, Lockett averaged 1.9 yards per route, which is right on par with his five-year average. The league average in this formation was 1.6. His 23 percent target rate in this formation was a career-high. His 0.54 EPA per target and 0.12 EPA per route, were each his second-best in his last five seasons. His effectiveness actually dipped a bit in 12 personnel, showing that a move to 11 could boost his numbers. 

 

Tyler Lockett vs DK Metcalf

The efficiency has not yet dipped for Lockett and unless he falls off a cliff, then a decrease in volume would have to come for the ADPs to make sense. Currently, Metcalf is getting drafted as the WR15, going 29th overall. Smith-Njigba is being drafted as the WR30, 60th overall. While Lockett goes last as the WR32, 65th overall. Not only am I advocating that Lockett is going too low and should be getting drafted ahead of JSN, but his ADP should be closer to Metcalf. 

I get the thinking. No matter who is the WR2, Metcalf is a lock to play in two receiver sets. He is also a favorite target in the red/end zone. He has been reliable as of late and is younger than Lockett so you do not need to worry about age. One key element is being overlooked. If they are going to play more three-receiver sets and have a better third target than ever before then it is possible that both Metcalf and Lockett have some targets shaved off from their 2022 total. Metcalf is more volume reliant than Lockett, as Lockett has been the more efficient option of the two. 

Player Yds/Route Yds/Target Yds/Rec Target Rate EPA/Tgt EPA/Rt
Tyler Lockett 2.1 8.8 12.3 23.3% 0.30 0.07
DK Metcalf 1.9 7.4 11.6 25.8% 0.02 0.00

As you can see Lockett was more efficient at every metric, while Metcalf earned more volume. Additionally, Lockett had more end zone catches (six to five) despite significantly fewer end zone targets (22 to 9 in favor of Metcalf). It's a big reason why Lockett was the better fantasy asset – scoring more points despite seeing 24 fewer targets on the year. 

 

The Verdict 

Looking at the numbers and fantasy finishes and pairing them with the ADP, it shows that Metcalf is going close to full price. Smith-Njigba is the wild card pick, the one that can make some look very smart or very … not so smart. Lockett, unless he falls off of a cliff at 31 years old despite showing zero signs of slowing down last season, is the best buy of them all at the current price. 

I understand wanting to be out a year early rather than a year late on a player, but JSN going ahead of Lockett indicates the expectation is that Lockett will decline and JSN will ascend and take over. The thinking is that the youngster can get hot late in the season and blossom into a potential league winner. You will not catch me saying he doesn’t have that potential, because I love his talent. However, I do not think he will get that opportunity because Lockett will still be performing at a high level. 

If the volume is about to get spread out a little bit, Metcalf is in jeopardy of taking a hit as well, but the ADP does not indicate so. If the volume is spread out, the best bet is the receiver who has made a career being uber-efficient on a per route, target, and catch basis. 

The fantasy community has seemingly written off Lockett in the last couple of years. I learned from my mistake last year and will not be doubting him until he gives us an actual reason to do so. The market dip on Lockett is a great thing for those who still believe in him. It allows Lockett to continue to be a value in drafts and the more he falls, the less risk there is drafting him!

Make sure to follow Michael on Twitter, @MichaelFFlorio.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!




Win More With RotoBaller

Be sure to also check out all of our other daily fantasy football articles and analysis to help you set those winning lineups, including this new RotoBaller YouTube video:

More Fantasy Football Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Darius Garland19 mins ago

Probable Against 76ers
Donovan Mitchell28 mins ago

Upgraded To Questionable
Duncan Robinson2 hours ago

Heat Rule Out Duncan Robinson Friday
Bryan Reynolds2 hours ago

In Opening Day Lineup
Jimmy Butler2 hours ago

Probable Against Portland
Onyeka Okongwu3 hours ago

Remains Out Thursday
Dejounte Murray3 hours ago

Questionable With Back Soreness
Jordan Romano4 hours ago

Not Expected To Be Out Long
Gerrit Cole4 hours ago

Yankees Put Gerrit Cole On 60-Day Injured List
Elly De La Cruz4 hours ago

Batting In Six-Hole On Opening Day
Anthony Rendon4 hours ago

Hitting Leadoff On Opening Day
Wander Franco4 hours ago

Placed On Administrative Leave
Aaron Ekblad5 hours ago

Returning To Panthers Lineup Thursday
Nikita Kucherov5 hours ago

Establishes New Career High With 42nd Goal
Shane Pinto5 hours ago

Collects Career-High Four Points
Valeri Nichushkin5 hours ago

Nursing A Lower-Body Injury
Samuel Girard5 hours ago

Battling An Illness
J.K. Dobbins5 hours ago

Visiting With Chargers On Thursday
Oskar Sundqvist5 hours ago

To Miss Rest Of Season With Torn ACL
Ethan Bear5 hours ago

Enters Player Assistance Program
Keita Bates-Diop6 hours ago

To Miss Rest Of Season
Dyson Daniels6 hours ago

Remains Out On Thursday But Nearing Return
LaMelo Ball6 hours ago

Ruled Out For Rest Of 2023-24
Jose Alvarado6 hours ago

Questionable To Face Milwaukee
Jaden Springer6 hours ago

Considered Questionable
Xavier Tillman6 hours ago

Sr. Questionable Thursday
Gabe Vincent6 hours ago

Expected To Return To Action On Sunday
Al Horford17 hours ago

Back On The Injury Report
Derrick White18 hours ago

Off The Injury Report
TJ Friedl19 hours ago

Hits 10-Day Injured List
Aaron Gordon19 hours ago

Cleared To Face Phoenix
Michael Porter19 hours ago

Jr. Good To Go Wednesday
Nikola Jokic19 hours ago

Playing Against Phoenix
Jackson Chourio19 hours ago

Will Start In Right Field Friday
Jrue Holiday19 hours ago

Might Return On Thursday
Khris Middleton19 hours ago

Expected To Play On Thursday Night
Joel Embiid19 hours ago

To Return Soon?
Eduardo Rodriguez20 hours ago

Starts Throwing Program
Garrett Mitchell20 hours ago

Will Miss 6-8 Weeks
Chad Green21 hours ago

To Lead Closer Committee In Toronto?
Erik Swanson21 hours ago

Jordan Romano, Erik Swanson Officially Heading To Injured List
Kevin Gausman21 hours ago

To Make Season Debut Sunday Or Monday
Gleyber Torres22 hours ago

Will Bat Leadoff On Opening Day
Mark Hubbard22 hours ago

Coming Off A Career Performance
Davis Thompson23 hours ago

Looking To Pay Off A Stellar Run Of Ball-Striking
Max Scherzer23 hours ago

Making Solid Progress
Akshay Bhatia23 hours ago

Coming Into Houston With Confidence
Thorbjorn Olesen23 hours ago

Still Trying To Find Footing On U.S. Soil
Patrick Rodgers23 hours ago

Fighting Inconsistencies Heading Into Houston
Malik Nabers23 hours ago

Shines At Pro Day
Carolina Panthers24 hours ago

Jadeveon Clowney Signing Two-Year Deal With Panthers
Jordan Lawlar1 day ago

To Have Thumb Surgery, Out A Couple Months
Wyndham Clark1 day ago

Battling Back Injury Ahead of Houston Open
San Francisco 49ers1 day ago

Talanoa Hufanga Expected To Return At Training Camp
MLB1 day ago

Braves And Phillies Rained Out On Thursday
Jayden Daniels1 day ago

Raiders To Meet With Jayden Daniels
MLB1 day ago

Mets And Brewers To Be Postponed Thursday
Tank Bigsby1 day ago

Jaguars Want Tank Bigsby More Involved
Will Smith1 day ago

Inks 10-Year Extension With Dodgers
Josh Reynolds1 day ago

Signs Two-Year Deal With Broncos
Jon Berti1 day ago

Yankees Acquire Jon Berti From Marlins
Kodai Senga1 day ago

Throws Wednesday
Doug Ghim1 day ago

Looks To Bounce Back At Houston Open
PGA1 day ago

Cameron Davis Seeking Consistency Ahead Of Houston Open
Thomas Detry1 day ago

A Gamble At Houston Open
Ryan Fox1 day ago

Lacks Upside Heading Into Houston Open
Andrew Novak1 day ago

Will Be Chalk At Houston Open
Josh Doan1 day ago

Scores Twice In His NHL Debut
Filip Forsberg1 day ago

Makes History In Big Comeback Win
Jamie Benn1 day ago

Scores In Fifth Consecutive Game
Sidney Crosby1 day ago

Collects Three Points Versus Carolina
Artemi Panarin1 day ago

Continues Scoring Tear With Three Assists
Joey Daccord1 day ago

Shuts Out Ducks
Sahith Theegala1 day ago

Showing Consistency This Season
Wyndham Clark1 day ago

Working Toward Star Status
Scottie Scheffler1 day ago

Heads To Houston At His Best
Sam Ryder1 day ago

Putting The Lights Out Of Late
Joel Dahmen1 day ago

All Systems Go For Joel Dahmen In Houston
Kurt Kitayama1 day ago

Ready For Houston Debut
Ben Griffin1 day ago

Finding Form Heading To Houston
Taylor Moore2 days ago

Continues Made-Cut Streak Heading To Houston
Adam Svensson2 days ago

Hoping For Consistency In Houston
Taylor Montgomery2 days ago

Looks To Bounce Back In Houston
Amon-Ra St. Brown2 days ago

Discussing Extension With Lions
Jared Goff2 days ago

Lions Discussing New Deal
J.K. Dobbins2 days ago

Cleared For Football Activities
Los Angeles Rams2 days ago

Tre'Davious White To Join Rams
PIT2 days ago

Sam Poulin Recalled From AHL
Jack Quinn2 days ago

Could Return Wednesday
Scott Mayfield2 days ago

Undergoes Season-Ending Surgery
TOR2 days ago

Mitch Marner Skates On His Own Tuesday
Trevor Zegras2 days ago

To Return Tuesday
Justus Annunen2 days ago

Inks Two-Year Extension
Nick Chubb2 days ago

Expected To Start Load Running Next Month
D'Andre Swift2 days ago

Bears View D'Andre Swift As Receiving Weapon
Cordarrelle Patterson2 days ago

Signing With Steelers
Sam Howell2 days ago

Seahawks Believe Sam Howell Can Be A Full-Time Starter
Tennessee Titans2 days ago

L'Jarius Sneed Agrees On Four-Year Contract With Titans
Dak Prescott2 days ago

No Indication A Deal Is Coming For Dak Prescott
Calvin Ridley2 days ago

To Have Big Role In Tennessee
Josh Jacobs2 days ago

To Be Used More In Passing Game
Brandon Saad2 days ago

Gets Another Goal In Monday's Loss
Logan Thompson2 days ago

Stretches Winning Streak To Three Games
Pittsburgh Steelers3 days ago

Cameron Heyward Expected To Be Healthy For Training Camp
Zach Wilson3 days ago

Jets Could End Up Keeping Zach Wilson
Amanda Ribas3 days ago

Takes Decision Loss
Rose Namajunas3 days ago

Snaps Losing Streak
Edmen Shahbazyan3 days ago

Scores Vicious Comeback Knockout
AJ Dobson3 days ago

Knocked Out In The First Round At UFC Vegas 89
Fernando Padilla3 days ago

Gets Back On Track With Submission Win
Luis Pajuelo3 days ago

Submitted In UFC Debut
William Byron3 days ago

Dominates For Victory At COTA
Ty Gibbs3 days ago

Grabs Another Solid Finish At COTA
Chris Buescher3 days ago

Texas Native Chris Buescher Finishes Eighth At COTA
Christopher Bell3 days ago

Kyle Busch Confronts Christopher Bell Following A Top-10 Finish At COTA
Justin Haley3 days ago

Disqualified After Strong COTA Run
Martin Truex Jr4 days ago

. Rounds Out Top Ten At COTA
NASCAR4 days ago

A.J. Allmendinger Worms Way Up To Sixth At COTA
Shane Van Gisbergen4 days ago

Shane van Gisbergen Comes Down to Earth After Mediocre COTA Run
Ross Chastain4 days ago

Ran Well at COTA as Usual Despite Late-Race Fade
Christopher Bell4 days ago

Furious Charge Falls Just Short at COTA
Tyler Reddick4 days ago

Scores Strong Finish of Fifth at COTA
Chase Elliott4 days ago

Finishes 16th at COTA After Lackluster Performance
Billy Quarantillo4 days ago

Suffers Submission Loss At UFC Vegas 89
Youssef Zalal4 days ago

Gets Submission Win In Return To The UFC
Cameron Saaiman4 days ago

Gets Knocked Out At UFC Vegas 89
Payton Talbott4 days ago

Scores KO Win At UFC Vegas 89
Justin Tafa4 days ago

Drops To .500 In The UFC
Karl Williams4 days ago

Remains Undefeated In The UFC
Kyle Larson4 days ago

Is One Of The Optimal DFS Options For COTA
Denny Hamlin4 days ago

Should Denny Hamlin Be Rostered For DFS Lineups At COTA?
Kaz Grala4 days ago

Is A Serviceable DFS Play For COTA
Shane Van Gisbergen4 days ago

Will Start 12th In First COTA Cup Start
Todd Gilliland4 days ago

Is A Sneaky DFS Play With Upside For COTA
William Byron4 days ago

Is One Of The Top Favorites To Win At COTA
Christopher Bell4 days ago

Is A Comfortable DFS Play For COTA
Tyler Reddick4 days ago

the Favorite to Win at COTA
Ty Gibbs4 days ago

Looking for First Career Win at COTA
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 

2024 NFL Draft: Bold Predictions and Potential Surprises for Round 1

Football never sleeps at RotoBaller! With the 2024 NFL Draft fast approaching, we're digging into what might transpire on draft night. RotoBaller analyst LaQuan Jones previews the 2024 NFL Draft and makes some BOLD Predictions about possible surprises and potential landing spots for the first round of the draft. Win MORE in 2024 with RotoBaller!... Read More


George Pickens - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Early Look At Wide Receivers In 2024 Fantasy Football Drafts

The upcoming NFL Draft is less than a month away. While everyone is excited for the NFL Draft, fantasy players are looking forward to the regular season. While we won’t have meaningful NFL football for months, it’s never too early to prepare for your fantasy football drafts. Last year, the fantasy football world saw multiple... Read More


Spencer Rattler, College Football Transfers

Underrated Rookie Draft Targets - Early 2024 Sleepers for Dynasty Fantasy Football

We are a month out from the NFL Draft, meaning if you are here, you are probably looking for draft content and reading up on prospects. You probably have all of the information you need on stud prospects like Caleb Williams and Marvin Harrison Jr. That’s not what you’re here for.  Rookie draft season for... Read More


Breece Hall - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2024 NFL Free-Agency Winners and the Fantasy Football Impact - Part II

The NFL's offseason, including trades and free agency, can strongly impact a player's fantasy football value. This effect can be positive or negative. For this series, we're focusing on fantasy football players who have seen their fantasy value increase. This can occur via a player's direct movement, such as a trade or signing with a... Read More


UFL RANKINGS, FANTASY FOOTBALL,

UFL Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 1: QB, RB, WR, TE Rankings and Analysis (2024)

It's finally here: the UFL season is set to kick off with two games on Saturday, March 30 and two games on Sunday, March 31. Saturday's games will be broadcast on Fox Sports while Sunday's matchups will be on ESPN. The most anticipated Week 1 matchup pits the 2023 USFL champion Birmingham Stallions against the... Read More


Jared Goff - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Will the Lions Extend Jared Goff's Contract This Offseason? 2024 NFL Outlook

Jared Goff's career in Los Angeles didn't take off like many expected after his appearance in Super Bowl LIII, and he was traded to the Lions for Matthew Stafford. Goff's first season in the Motor City was terrible, but he has completely turned things around over the last two seasons. In 2022, he almost led... Read More


Kyle Pitts - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2024 NFL Free-Agency Winners and the Fantasy Football Impact - Part I

Free agency symbolizes the start of a new NFL season. It's the first opportunity for NFL clubs to start addressing their weaknesses and considerably impacts how the upcoming season plays out. Just as free agency can improve or worsen a team's outlook, a player's fantasy football value is also impacted. Free agency marks the real... Read More


Malik Nabers - Fantasy Football Rankings, College FB, WR, NFL Draft Sleepers

Coach Knows Ball: Malik Nabers 2024 NFL Draft Film Breakdown of LSU WR

Welcome to Coach Knows Ball, an NFL Draft series analyzing the top prospects in the 2024 class. I'm a college football coach with nine years of NCAA experience and have been scouting NFL Draft prospects for over 15 years. This series will give a deep dive into the film of some of the top players... Read More


Avoid These Running Backs in 2024: Fantasy Football Outlook

Football never sleeps at RotoBaller! The staff is already looking ahead to the 2024 season to help our readers get the jump on their competition. RotoBaller analyst LaQuan Jones discusses five Running Backs that you should AVOID in 2024 fantasy football drafts. Win MORE in 2024 with RotoBaller! Be sure to tune into RotoBaller Radio... Read More


Brock Bowers - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Rookies, Draft Sleepers, NCAA College Football, Prospects

Brock Bowers 2024 NFL Draft Stock Update – When Will the Georgia TE Be Selected?

Georgia tight end Brock Bowers was arguably the top tight end in college football over the past few years. Bowers was outstanding his freshman year, totaling 56 receptions for 882 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns. Unfortunately, his production slightly slipped in 2022 as defenses started to game plan for the star tight end. Bowers had... Read More


Xavier Worthy 2024 NFL Draft Stock Update – When Will the Texas WR Be Selected?

Texas wide receiver Xavier Worthy has been one of the top pass-catchers in college football over the past few years. The explosive receiver was outstanding his freshman year, totaling 62 receptions for 981 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns. Unfortunately, his production slipped in 2022. Worthy had 60 receptions for 760 receiving yards and nine touchdowns... Read More


Blake Corum - Fantasy Football Rankings, College FB, RB, NFL Draft Sleepers

Blake Corum 2024 NFL Draft Stock Update - When Will the Michigan RB Be Selected?

Former Michigan running back Blake Corum is one of the most popular prospects in the 2024 NFL Draft class. The 23-year-old is fresh off a College Football National Championship victory and a 2023 campaign consisting of over 1,300 yards from scrimmage. However, given the devaluation of the running back position and Corum not being an... Read More


Brandon Aiyuk - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News

Will The 49ers Trade Brandon Aiyuk?

Brandon Aiyuk had a career year last season, finishing seventh in the league in receiving yards (1342), second in yards per catch (17.9), and catching seven touchdowns. For his efforts, he was named to the Second-team All-Pro. However, despite many expecting them to do so, the 49ers failed to win Super Bowl LVIII and now... Read More