RADIO
Every year there are breakout, bust, and lock players in fantasy basketball. Jake King-Finnen identifies one player for each category on the Memphis Grizzlies.
Welcome to a new series that we are debuting here at RotoBaller in order to start getting you ready for the 2022-2023 fantasy basketball season!
If you play fantasy football, you'll probably recognize the format here as we had a series of preseason NFL articles that followed the same outline. The idea here is to hone in several players from each team that we see as values for the upcoming season or that are possibly being drafted too high this preseason.
In this piece, you'll find a fantasy basketball breakout candidate, a fantasy basketball bust candidate, and a fantasy basketball lock (think steady production and being drafted correctly) for the Memphis Grizzlies based on early ADP for fantasy basketball drafts for the 2022-2023 season. With a thinned-out Grizzlies roster, we know where the production should be coming from, it’s just a matter of consistency.
Editor's Note: Steer clear of costly draft mistakes with RotoBaller’s expert Fantasy Football Bust analysis. We break down overvalued players, potential letdowns, and risky ADPs to avoid, so you can build a smarter, safer roster.
Fantasy Basketball Breakout: Tyus Jones
The last few seasons there have only been a handful of Grizzlies players worthy of being mentioned in the same sentence as the word consistency. Even coming off the bench, Tyus Jones has earned the right to be considered a top backup in the league for that reason. He has not posted eye-popping stats, but he makes winning plays and sometimes that can come at the expense of note-worthy game logs. That being said, Jones was sixth in minutes played last season, snuggled between Kyle Anderson and De’Anthony Melton, two players who have already been dealt to the Minnesota Timberwolves and Philadelphia 76ers, respectively.
With Melton and Anderson gone, Jones is still going to be Ja Morant’s direct source of relief, but Memphis doesn’t really have many other options in their backcourt. It’s unlikely, but we could finally see some Jones-Morant backcourt work this season and despite it costing them defense, rolling out a lineup with Morant-Jones-Brooks-Jackson-Adams could be the best option for generating late-game offense.
Jones has improved each year within his own skill-set and it’s not going unnoticed. His stats simply don’t indicate the type of improvement that can be taken advantage of in fantasy realms. The second unit will still be the weak point of this roster, but now with players at least willing to take shots, Jones will have much more to work with. Missing shots is a part of the game, but eventually even the most passive of point guards will stop passing to players who simply won’t shoot. We’ve already seen strategic additions to the second unit that will space the floor perfectly for someone like Jones, a shifty, undersized guard who can and will find open teammates. Just as a cherry on top, despite a low usage rate, Jones had the lowest turnover rate of any Grizzly guard that played over 10 minutes last season and was still second is AST% to only Ja Morant.
Fantasy Basketball Bust: Dillon Brooks
Not many players ended last season on as bad of a note as Dillon Brooks. Not only did the Grizzlies come up short as a whole, but people actually publicly announced their dislike of Brooks for his cheap shot on Golden State’s Gary Payton II. It was a lapse of judgement on his part, but even Payton II would have to admit that going to rehab with a ring isn’t so bad. Unlike Tyus Jones, Dillon Brooks’ role as a defense-first, 3-and-D type of hybrid guard is pretty much solidified in the starting rotation. He’s going to get 30 minutes a night and he will look to be fed because of his scoring, which is ultimately streaky but needs to be tested nightly.
In Game 1 against the Warriors, Brooks scored 30 points on 28 shots in a 14-point loss. He then proceeded to score a total of 32 points across the three games where he was able to play for more than five minutes. It was a matter of “if he can keep it up…” and as it turns out for Brooks, he could not. Giving him the benefit of the doubt in that his injury impeded him from being ‘100%,’ the only real category Brooks’ improves in every year is assists and the injury doesn’t really show any major drawbacks. In last year’s smaller sample size, his points did increase and any consistency would tag him as a quality fantasy asset, but his efficiency is erratic and that doesn’t make up for the lack of peripheral stats.
On a positive note, anyone looking for a raw stat combination of 3’s made, steals, and some points should have no problem finding a spot for Brooks.
Fantasy Basketball Lock: Desmond Bane
As easy as it would be to put Ja Morant or Jaren Jackson Jr. here, Desmond Bane has the most to prove. He filled in for Brooks last season and expertly maintained Memphis’ momentum when Morant missed time. As a natural scorer, Bane will be leaned on more this season for his outside scoring now that Memphis’ reliable depth chart has been reduced drastically. Melton and Anderson don’t make substantial changes in terms of overall potential, but the difference between having two veterans with a history of staying composed compared to young guys is notable from the first possession.
Bane benefitted from having players that create for teammates because it made guarding him in isolation almost impossible. Outside of the first unit, Tyus Jones remains as the one player that the Grizzlies can count on for offense. If Bane and Jones are surrounded by passive young players in the second unit that don’t look like are willing to shoot, defenses are going to focus in stopping those two capable players first. That, however, can benefit us simply by allowing Bane more chances to finish off possessions. Having passive role players that don’t shoot can help and hurt you, but the result becomes more about variance and individual production rather than anything based on observation or reason.
Luckily, we’ve seen the young Memphis roster and if anything, there might be too much shooting. If that were a real thing, we should be concerned, but as long as we know who will be getting a majority of minutes in Memphis this season, we know who to trust. We saw what happened in the post-season where Bane was forced to do too much and it led to contested shots and predictable offense, yet he still established himself as a force that needed to be stopped rather than a flame that would fizzle out. If Bane can play well in the regular season without the teams two best players, and play well in the post-season despite a championship-caliber defense attempting to lock him up, there’s no doubt his confidence is at an all time high and he’s ready to get the ball rolling again.
Conclusion
This Memphis team will look the same on the outside with most of their starters returning, but their bench lost two of their best assets and it’s going to show. Zaire Williams will assume a bigger role on both ends of the floor, but the second unit will need someone to help Tyus Jones with scoring until the younger players are capable to creating on their own. Assuming the likes of John Konchar and Xavier Tillman have developed enough over the summer to create enough depth in this Grizzlies roster is extremely bold. Memphis will win games because of the talent they have exploding out of their starting unit, but if any of those guys miss time to injury or need rest, we’ll need to rely on that same will power from last year propelling them to some post-season securing wins.
There isn’t anything to really dislike and there’s a ton to love with some of the young guys like Kenneth Lofton Jr. and Vince Williams Jr., but Danny Green can’t be the only guy on your team that you can trust to hit an outside shot. If any moves are going to be made, it’s going to find someone similar to Green or Bane that can spread the floor without pulling too much from the guys that can get them the ball in the first place.
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