Matt Miller's 2026 CJ Cup Byron Nelson Longshot Bets

May 20, 2026

Matt Miller dives into his top longshot bets for the 2026 CJ Cup Byron Nelson sleeper plays, value bets, and under-the-radar golf betting insights.

Welcome to my weekly longshots article! The purpose of this piece is to identify players further down the board who are low-risk, high-reward wagers. For purposes of this article, I am considering longshots to be players over 100-1 on the odds list.

The wagers listed below might have playability in various sectors of the market. Please search your shops to see if you can find anything enticing.

If you have any additional questions for me, you can find me on X @MattyMillz85. I am always more than happy to answer any questions you might have. Also, stay tuned for additional announcements from me here in 2026. Big things are on the way!

Chris Kirk (100-1 FanDuel)

Chris Kirk is coming off a strong approach week at the PGA Championship. He finished 9th in the field for the week in strokes gained approach. Despite only finishing T44, it is an encouraging sign for the 41-year-old to see his irons get back to being sharp.

Kirk has only lost strokes on approach three times in fifteen starts since last year's Open Championship. He has also gained strokes off the tee in five of his last six starts. The club that has plagued the veteran for the better part of 2o26 has been the putter.

Dallas' Jordan Spieth is grouped with Sungjae Im and Chris Kirk. They are scheduled to tee off of No. 1 at 12:43 p.m. Thursday and off of No. 10 at 7:33 a.m. on Friday -- so the same times as the Scheffler group, but in reverse. https://t.co/zBI7LOeV5L

— Brad Townsend (@townbrad) May 19, 2026

When Kirk is able to get the putter going, he is capable of getting himself into contention. We saw evidence of this toward the end of last season when he rattled off three straight top fifteen finishes at the 3M Open, Wyndham Championship and FedEx St. Jude Championship.

Preston Stout (145-1 DraftKings)

I may be getting a bit ahead of myself on this one, but Preston Stout is going to be a stud. Stout won four times this year at Oklahoma State, including winning the Big !2 golf tournament for a third consecutive season. He received exemption into this tournament by winning the Cabo Collegiate by seven strokes.

Preston Stout becomes the first three-time winner of the Big 12 men's golf tournament.

Last five individual champs ...

2026: Stout
2025: Stout
2024: Stout (T1, shared title)
2023: Ludvig
2022: Ludvig

— Kyle Porter (@KylePorterNS) April 29, 2026

I know it's probably asking a lot for Stout to win in his second career PGA Tour start (he missed the cut at last year's 3M Open, shooting -4), but we are starting to see more and more players have success out the gates recently. I think of Michael Brennan winning is his first start as a professional in the fall and Nick Dunlap winning as an amateur in 2024.

If none of the big names at the very top of the board contend this week, the tournament feels pretty wide open. I don't think it's a bad week to take a flyer on talent down the board.

Nick Dunlap (400-1 DraftKings)

Don't look now but Nick Dunlap has either been baseline or gained strokes on approach in five straight starts. While none of the starts necessarily jump off the page as a GREAT iron week, they aren't bad either. This is a stark contrast from what we saw from Dunlap at the end of January into March.

The 22-year-old has also gained strokes putting in four of his past five starts. Dunlap has never been a consistent off the tee player thus far in his career but if the irons and putter are cooperating, he's proven he knows how to win.

I'm frankly surprised to see the 22-year-old at this large of a number in this type of event. Could Dunlap miss the cut this week? Sure. Dunlap has also won twice already in his young PGA Tour career. At a seemingly wide-open birdie-fest type of event, give me the guy who is boom and bust and trending in the right direction at 400-1 every time.

More PGA Analysis and DFS Lineup Picks

If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU

— Joe Nicely (@JoeNicely) June 28, 2020

Congrats @tenndolly2 ???

Thanks for being a @RotoBaller PGA DFS Premium subscriber & checking out all the amazing golf content that @JoeNicely produces every week! https://t.co/tHKZVsPbbt

— RotoBaller PGA (@RotoBallerPGA) August 10, 2020