Matt Miller's 2026 AT&T Pebble Beach PGA Longshot Bets

February 11, 2026

Matt Miller dives into his top longshot bets for the 2026 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. PGA sleeper plays, value bets, and under-the-radar golf betting insights.

Welcome to my weekly longshots article! The purpose of this piece is to identify players further down the board who are low-risk, high-reward wagers. For purposes of this article, I am considering longshots to be players over 100-1 on the odds list.

The wagers listed below might have playability in various sectors of the market. Please search your shops to see if you can find anything enticing.

If you have any additional questions for me, you can find me on X @MattyMillz85. I am always more than happy to answer any questions you might have. Also, stay tuned for additional announcements from me here in 2026. Big things are on the way!

Sahith Theegala (100-1 DraftKings)

Sahith Theegala is starting to heat up. In his last three starts he’s finished T18 at the WM Phoenix Open, T7 at the Farmers Insurance Open and T8 at The American Express. He’s been great on the greens, gaining at least 3.0 strokes putting in all three. He is also dialing in his irons, gaining 2.7 and 3.1 strokes on approach in his last two starts.

Sahith Theegala pulled up to his TGL match in an Anze Kopitar jersey 👑

📺: The Bay Golf Club vs. Los Angeles Golf Club LIVE on SN1 or stream on Sportsnet+
📸: @TGL pic.twitter.com/WEWxfusIkz

— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) February 10, 2026

Theegala’s main weakness has been his off the tee play. He lost over five strokes off the tee in his T18 finish at last week’s WM Phoenix Open. The good news for Theegala is that off the tee play is going to be largely irrelevant at this week’s event. With players hitting less than driver on a lot of holes, Sahith isn’t going to have to worry about the driver holding him back.

The 28-year-old has played this event three times, his best finish a T20 in 2024. Despite not having elite finishes at this tournament, I believe that the course sets up well for his game. The two keys this week will be approach play and putting on the poa surfaces. If Theegala continues his play from the past few weeks, he checks both boxes.

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Final 2023 Golf Betting Results:
(Individual breakdowns of all sections in thread) @RotoBaller

2023 (+16.634 Units)
2022 (+67.485 Units)
2021 (+68.846 Units)
2020 (+37.015 Units)
2019 (+27.743 Units)
2018 (+55.88 Units)
2017 (+54.26 Units)

Overall: (+327.863 Units) pic.twitter.com/tuaDfwFXlo

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) November 21, 2023

Ryo Hisatsune (150-1 DraftKings)

Hisatsune heads to Pebble Beach in fantastic form. The 23-year-old finished T10 at last week’s WM Phoenix Open and T2 the week prior at the Farmers Insurance Open. Hisatsune has gained strokes in all major statistical categories in each of these last two starts.

Closing FAST. 🔥 Ryo Hisatsune catches fire on the back nine in Scottsdale to post a bogey-free 63 (-8). #Qi4D #TeamTaylorMade pic.twitter.com/lV0DhsnvEm

— TaylorMade Golf (@TaylorMadeGolf) February 6, 2026

While the off the tee game won’t matter too much this week, I am highly encouraged by his approach play and putting. The highly regarded Japanese prospect has gained 3.4 and 2.8 strokes on approach the last two weeks. At a tournament that is highly dependent on approach into small greens, it is encouraging to see Hisatsune dialed in with his approach play.

The putter has been a very volatile club for Hisatsune over the past six months. He had lost strokes putting in five of seven starts prior to the Farmers Insurance Open. In two of those five, he lost over four strokes on the green. To see back-to-back strong putting weeks is a great sign. It was particularly encouraging to see 4.1 strokes gained putting at the Farmers Insurance Open, a tournament played on Poa greens.

Billy Horschel (440-1 DraftKings)

The number is just too big in my opinion. I certainly understand the case against Horschel this week, he’s been mostly dreadful to begin 2026. That said, I am going to take a close look at his start at The American Express for purposes of this article. Horschel finished T27 at The American Express at the end of January, a course which requires some of the same skillset we are looking for this week.

The American Express features a ton of wedges into greens, similar to what we will be seeing this week at Pebble Beach. Horschel gained 3.4 strokes on approach in his two measured rounds at the Stadium Course. Even with his approach play struggling as a whole, there are some encouraging signs in the distances we are eyeing this week.

In seven career starts at this tournament, Horschel has made four cuts. His best finish was a T9 at last year's event. He also finished T32 here at the 2019 US Open. Horschel is an eight-time PGA Tour winner and a former FedEX Cup Champion, so he certainly has the pedigree to win a big event. While the recent form is stacked against him, the number is big enough to warrant consideration.

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