RADIO
Welcome back to another League of Legends DFS fantasy slate! New rosters are debuting still, and yesterday's matches featured all the favorites winning. Unfortunately, the underdog value couldn't come through but if you went to OMG for full-stack value then you probably had some profitable lineups! I did have some OMG mixed in for full stacks but not with other favorites. Tough night for me but we can't win every night so let's get into this five-game slate for tomorrow!
Roster changes will be addressed if need be when mentioning each team. As a friendly reminder, if you can't stomach any sub risk or don't enjoy waking up early, then figure a way to roster players that don't hold any sub risk. The LCK is tricky when it comes to starting lineups, and we are usually given the LCK starting lineups about an hour or so before lock, for the first series. (@KorizonEsports on Twitter is a good lineup source, as well as @kenzi131) In this case, we might not get LCK lineups before the 2:00 AM lock, so we are going to try and project starters based on new additions. LPL starters are found earlier and on Twitter too.
I'll provide my League of Legends DFS advice, analysis, and lineup picks for this LPL & LCK slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 2:00 AM EST on Saturday, January 15th, 2022. If you have any questions about the slate or anything please reach out to me on Twitter @MAVpickems. I'll do my best to provide some useful analysis, and the odds listed are from Pinnacle. Let's jump right into the matchups, and good luck RotoBallers.
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LCK Matches
3:00 AM: LSB (+175) vs. NS (-217)
We might not get starting lineups before lock for this LCK match, but the starters SHOULD be: Dove/Croco/Clozer/Envyy/Kael for LSB and Canna/Dread/Bdd/Ghost/Effort for NS. NS looked solid in their game one victory led by Canna and Dread creating pressure on the top side, while Ghost played weakside as we should expect. Games two and three were just a mess for NS while Onfleek rebounded after a rough game one. LSB upset DRX after falling behind 6k gold in their first game and won a closely contested second game.
NS showed that they may need some more time to learn how to play around one another, while LSB showed strong resiliency and decisive decision-making even when playing from behind. Every one of NS laners was a liability in their losses and there are questions about their synergy and decision-making this early in the split. LSB may garner some ownership after their nice kill totals and sweep vs DRX, and the fact that NS lost to HLE may scare people them and choose to side with the underdog value in LSB.
I think NS decision-making in games two and three of their losses were strictly disrespectful towards HLE. HLE had a game plan with their draft compositions and executed them well. However, I think there is value in this NS line. They still have the more talented roster, and I especially like the top side advantage for NS in this matchup. Give me NS to bounce back in this one, as Dread is usually a consistent performer in the LCK as well as Canna is a menace in the top lane. With plenty of great top lane matchups tomorrow, I think Canna will go under-owned, making him my favorite play of this series. I don't mind getting to LSB for value in hopes that Envyy has a great series again, which isn't out of the realm since I believe Ghost is somewhat a liability on this squad. I will have exposure to full stacks of NS in this matchup at low ownership, as it will probably still be tough to outscore some of the LPL matches tomorrow. However, I did like NS's aggressiveness and willingness to choose fights in their match vs HLE. With the lack of value tomorrow I will have a couple of shares of LSB.
Top NS plays: Canna, Dread, Bdd, Effort, Ghost (play them all)
Top LSB plays: Envyy, Clozer
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5:00 AM: KT (+104) vs. KDF (-125)
For this LCK match, we should see Kiin/Ellim/FATE/Teddy/Hoit for KDF and Rascal/Cuzz/Aria/Aiming/Life for KT. KDF is coming off a rough loss vs T1 where T1 controlled both games throughout. KT was swept by DK in their last series and had no chance in game one but kept it closer in game two. This match is my favorite fade of the day, considering it's an LCK match with a slower pace and I believe it goes three games. Both teams need more time to learn to play with one another. Both these teams also much prefer to fight around objectives and only when they HAVE to, resulting in low kill games for both sides more times than not. I would highly recommend only getting to secondary stacks from this game if you want any exposure, but in a close match between these two, I expect a slow-paced, macro style of gameplay. If I absolutely HAD to choose a side in this one I would roll with KT, focusing on Aiming and Aria to carry the kill burden.
FADE MATCH
LPL Matches
2:00 AM: EDG (-2846) vs. TT (+1389)
The odds listed above are indeed accurate. I'm not going too in-depth with this matchup as we know what to expect from the reigning world champions. They will sweep aside a terribly coached and lackluster roster TT. Xiaoxiang is subbing in for Flandre in this matchup, but I don't think this will affect their chances of sweeping by much. If anything, it may help EDG for the purposes of DFS in the sense that if Xiaoxiang does struggle, the rest of the EDG squad can pick up the slack and score better to pay off their expensive price tags. I don't think EDG will be the optimal stack in GPP's however, so I will be sticking to the EDG team slot as they should steamroll TT in under 25 minutes both games. EDG may let the reigns loose a bit since TT is that bad, and it may result in some high kill totals, but what we've seen from TT this split is that in three of their four game losses, they just aren't giving up that many kills to be an optimal team to full-stack against. EDG is more than capable of smashing these guys but they may smash them too hard and the games could be over in record time. Give me the EDG team slot and some exposure to small stacks in this one.
Top EDG plays: TEAM slot, Jiejie, Viper, Xiaoxiang
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4:00 AM: TES (-596) vs. UP (+425)
TES are large favorites for the second straight series after getting swept by RA. TES had draft struggles in game one with no consistent engagement and was outranged by RA, and couldn't handle the map pressure in the later stages of game two. They definitely have the talent to compete for the championship and are now subbing in Xiaopeng, much more aggressive than Tian, for their match vs UP. Credit to RA for playing effectively and playing together in order to overcome TES. TES having early split struggles is not anything new, but I think this is a great bounceback spot for TES. UP was swept by LNG and really didn't stand a chance in either of their games.
I will be prioritizing TES in this matchup for primary stacks and secondary stacks after many were burned last slate by them. I think subbing in Xiaopeng is a great move for this specific matchup, not that Tian was the issue last series, but H4cker struggled vs Tarzan and should struggle again vs the aggressive style of Xiaopeng. Zoom also has a significant advantage over zs in the top lane, and Knight is a dominant mid-lane no matter the matchup. UP's best shot at taking this series or even a game off of TES will have to come through Elk's huge carry potential and the playmaking of ShiauC, but I won't be getting there on this slate. Jackeylove and Xiaopeng are a couple of my favorite captain options on the entire slate.
Top TES plays: Jackeylove, Xiaopeng, Knight, Zoom, Zhuo(play all the lads)
6:00 AM: RA (+293) vs. LNG (-384)
The 6 AM early morning hammer features RA coming off a strong victory vs TES, and LNG destroying UP led by Light. RA was led by Strive's Corki gameplay, a champ that DoinB may steal in the draft to force RA onto a different-looking composition. The skill gap between each lane isn't necessarily MASSIVE, but LNG should come out of here on top. However, in the scope of the overall slate, I do think RA is an intriguing underdog to target for value.
LNG wasn't really contested in their series vs UP, but I think Leyan, on a good day, can hang with Tarzan's moves around the map. Tarzan is an amazing world-class jungler but may be assigned to supportive jungle duty in this meta and matchup, rather than carry jungle duty tomorrow, limiting his ability to carry a game solely by himself. I also believe iBoy has similar carry potential as Light, and Cube has always been a serviceable top laner. Zorah is a FADE for me from RA however, he displayed his lack of interest for KDA, as long as he is initiating fights and his team comes out on top in team fights. Strive and Zorah impressed me as two rookies coming up from the LDL and they showed no lack of aggression in the clutch moments of the series. I also think LNG could be the chalkiest team on the slate, considering their prices and ability to jam in LSB value with a TES or EDG one-off. This is a risky spot for RA coming off a big win and the fact that Leyan is very volatile and they have two rookies on the starting roster. But I think they will be lower owned than LSB and I will look to leverage against the field in this spot. I see this one going three games so will be prioritizing RA small stacks to jam in TES and NS full stacks. I will still get to some LNG full stacks mixed with LSB for value, but I can see a good amount of the field making this move. I believe this game will make or break the slate.
Top RA plays: iBoy, Strive, Leyan, Cube
Top LNG plays: DoinB, Tarzan, Light, Ale
Summary
- TLDR: I'll be loading up on TES and NS for my full stacks, and getting spicy by prioritizing RA for value while sprinkling in some LSB as well. NS for full stacks seems like a great GPP option. KT vs KDF is a fade for me altogether, and I will have limited exposure to EDG as well since they should turbo stomp a sorry TT squad.
- GPP Stacks: My favorite combinations for GPP stacks are NS/RA and TES/RA while also getting to some NS/TES and TES/LSB as well.
- Cash Stacks: For cash, EDG is pricey but is pretty much a lock to get the GNP bonus, but TES also looks like a strong cash play, which is why for GPP's I'll be over the field on NS as well as TES in hopes NS can outscore TES in a sweep.
Good luck tomorrow RotoBallers!
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