RADIO
Joe Nicely's under-the-radar DraftKings, FanDuel PGA DFS picks for the 2022 WM Phoenix Open. His Horse for the Course for daily fantasy golf based on course history.
Hello PGA DFS family and welcome back to Horse For The Course! My highest praise for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am is that it is now over, as are all 2022 events with the dreadful pro-am format. My dislike of the event is not meant to take anything away from an impressive victory by Tom Hoge, his first on the PGA Tour. Hoge held off a legit group of challengers that included Jordan Spieth and Patrick Cantlay.
With the pro-am events now, mercifully, done for the year, we head to TPC Scottsdale for one of the most enjoyable tournaments on the PGA Tour schedule, the WM Phoenix Open.
Horse For The Course is an article that highlights players in this week's field with elite course history and is part of our free PGA DFS content here at RotoBaller. For my favorite DFS plays of the week check out my Core Four article here at RotoBaller every Wednesday. It's part of our amazing PGA Premium package that includes an all-new PGA Research Station, Lineup Builder & Optimizer, and some of the best articles in the PGA DFS industry! You can sign up now using Promo Code: NICE for an extra discount at checkout!
2022 WM Phoenix Open
While it isn't the most high-brow tournament on the PGA Tour schedule, the Waste Management Phoenix Open may well be the most fun event of the year. To put things into movie terms, if the Masters is The Godfather, the Waste Management is Star Wars. What takes place in the WMPO might not be the deepest or most meaningful golf you'll watch this year, but sometimes it's fun to just grab some popcorn, kick back, relax, and enjoy the show.
While the WMPO is a huge spectacle unto itself - with its most (in)famous novelty being the rowdy 16th hole, a Par-3 that's enclosed in a one-of-a-kind stadium setting - we also have the excitement that comes with the tournament annually serving as the appetizer to the Super Bowl. If you're lucky, you are sweating your PGA DFS lineups with your buddies in the final round as you're preparing for your Super Bowl party. I've been there and it is unbelievable fun!
Due to this event's unique identity and spot on the schedule, this would be a fun DFS slate even with a pedestrian field. Lucky for us, we don't have that problem, as the WMPO turnout seems to just get better and better every single year, with the 2022 edition featuring the best field I can ever remember. Brooks Koepka is back to defend his WMPO title and he'll have to fend off a host of elite golfers, including three of the OWGR's top-four ranked players in Jon Rahm, Viktor Hovland, and Patrick Cantlay. Stars such as Justin Thomas, Xander Schauffele, and Hideki Matsuyama will also be in attendance this week.
You can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week. And be sure to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!
The Course: TPC Scottsdale (Stadium)
Par 71 - 7,261 Yards, Greens: TifEagle overseed w/ Bent & Poa mix, Designed By: Tom Weiskopf & Jay Moorish
A lot will be made of the famous Par-3 16th hole this week, and rightfully so, as it's unlike any other hole we see on the PGA Tour, but players will have to tame the other 17 holes at TPC Scottsdale if they want to win this week. The Stadium Course isn't difficult by PGA Tour standards and the winning score in each of the last five years has been between 17 and 19-under par with the 36-hole cut line normally falling around Even par.
Players will need to take advantage of three gettable Par-5s, as well as the driveable Par-4 17th hole, so distance is a nice bonus this week. Perhaps more important than distance is iron play...strokes gained on approach is a consistent trait of players that fare well in Phoenix. We have a nice sample size of course history to draw from this week and I feel comfortable making strong iron play with good proximity numbers my top priority for this event as I narrow down my potential player pool.
Check out RotoBaller's PGA Premium Course Breakdown by Josh Bennett for an in-depth breakdown of this week's golf course!
Recent WMPO Winners
- 2021: Brooks Koepka (-19)
- 2020: Webb Simpson (-17)
- 2019: Rickie Fowler (-17)
- 2018: Gary Woodland (-18)
- 2017: Jordan Spieth (-17)
Event Notes
- After fan access was limited in 2021 due to COVID, TPC Scottsdale's famous par-3 16th hole will return to full capacity this year. It holds around 20,000 spectators.
- The WMPO is the best-attended golf tournament in the world with over 700,000 fans expected this week.
- Three of the OWGR's top-four players are in the field - Jon Rahm, Viktor Hovland, & Patrick Cantlay - and 18 of the top-30 players in the OWGR.
The Horse
Hideki Matsuyama
Notable Course History: T16 (2020), T15 ('19), Win ('17 & '16), T2 ('15), T4 ('14)
DraftKings Price: TBD FanDuel Price: TBD
Confession time: I've spent the last couple of years concerned with Hideki Matsuyama's "winnability". He's blown that perception to bits over the past year, capturing his first major championship at the Masters in April, closing out 2021 with a hugely personal win at the ZOZO Championship, and opening 2022 with a sizzling, come-from-behind victory at the Sony Open.
This week, Matsuyama brings this rediscovered closing ability to a WMPO event where that's never been a problem for him. The Japanese superstar went back-to-back at TPC Scottsdale in 2016-17 on the heels of top-four finishes in the two years prior. Yeah...he's been a beast here.
Sharp ball-striking has long been Matsuyama's calling card and that elite ability from tee-to-green has been a driving force behind his success both in Phoenix and as of late. Over his two WMPO wins, he's gained an average of seven strokes on Approach and comes into this year's edition with the irons firing, having gained strokes on Approach in each of his last five starts.
The Ponies
Jon Rahm
Notable Course History: T13 ('21), T9 ('20), T10 ('19), T11 ('18), T5 *As an amateur ('15)
DraftKings Price: TBD FanDuel Price: TBD
There's admittedly been a lot of Jon Rahm in this article to start 2022, after all, he is the top-ranked player in the world. But perhaps more than any event we've touched on this year, Rahm's connection with the WMPO is special.
An ASU alum, the Spaniard views the area as something of an adopted home. He competed in the Waste Management as an amateur while still at ASU in 2015 and logged an impressive T5. The former Sun Devil has never really slowed down in this event, amassing a career scoring average of 68.17 and never finishing worse than T16 over six total starts at TPC Scottsdale.
Rahm heads into the week in sharp form and as a smart bet to finally capture his first WMPO title. He's yet to find the winner's circle in 2022 but has been firmly in the mix in two of his three starts this year, ultimately settling for a runner-up finish at the Sentry (despite finishing the week at 33-under par) and a T3 at the Farmers (he missed a playoff by one stroke). The Spaniard has, unsurprisingly, been fantastic statistically to this point, gaining strokes T2G, OTT, on Approach, and Putting in each of his three starts this year. While he's basically always an elite DFS option, that is especially true this week.
Jordan Spieth
Notable Course History: T4 ('21), T9 ('17), T7 ('15)
DraftKings Price: TBD FanDuel Price: TBD
Jordan Spieth's WMPO track record isn't going to pop quite as much as guys like Justin Thomas and Xander Schauffele, but it feels especially notable for a couple of reasons.
TPC Scottsdale was the kicking-off point of the three-time major champion's long-awaited re-emergence last year. His third-round 61 became the instant stuff of legend and sent PGA DFS Twitter into a frenzy. While he wasn't able to close the deal and ultimately settled for a share of fourth place, the WMPO was undoubtedly the start of a 2021 "Spieth Renaissance" that included a victory at the Valero Texas Open, as well as top-five finishes at both the Masters and the Open Championship.
Riding the Spieth bandwagon in DFS is anything but boring. Like his game, tailing him in fantasy can be all over the place, with results varying from horrible to beautiful. So while there's some inherent volatility that comes with rostering the Texan, his runner-up performance in the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am indicates that now is the perfect time to hop on. Spieth finished atop the AT&T field in Proximity and sharp iron play has historically been a harbinger of success for him.
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Justin Thomas
Notable Course History: T13 ('21), T3 ('20), 3rd ('19), T17 ('18)
DraftKings Price: TBD FanDuel Price: TBD
Like Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas has yet to actually pick up a win in 2022, but his game has been close. JT's two starts of the year have resulted in solid enough finishes - T5 at Sentry & T20 at Farmers - but it's easy to imagine that he's walked away frustrated after failing to put four rounds together in either outing.
Rounds of 67-61-65 weren't enough to overcome a sluggish opening-round 74 at Kapalua, while he managed to get off to a blistering start at Torrey Pines (68-63) only to limp across the finish line by going 73-74 over the weekend. These two 2022 outings indicate that Thomas' game might not be hitting on all cylinders just yet, but is very close.
I like his chances of putting everything together this week at TPC Scottsdale. The WMPO has become a staple on JT's schedule over the years and a look at his results explain why. He's finished 17th or better in five of his seven career starts in the desert, with top-three finishes in two of his last three WMPO appearances.
He's gained strokes on Approach in 15 of 16 starts since winning The Players Championship last year. His elite ability with the irons have proven to be a big advantage for him in this event. An average of 24.5% of approach shots at TPC Scottsdale fall into the 150-175 yard range and JT ranks sixth among this week's entrants in Proximity from 150-175 over his last 50 measured rounds.
Branden Grace
Notable Course History: T9 ('20), 2nd ('19)
DraftKings Price: TBD FanDuel Price: TBD
I try to go wherever the course history takes me in this article. That's the best way I know how to sum up Branden Graces's inclusion in this edition.
Grace suffered through an extensive slump throughout 2019 and 2020, but the South African's game finally resurfaced last year. He won the Puerto Rico Open and also posted top-10s in both the Memorial and the U.S. Open. Unfortunately, Grace hasn't looked sharp since posting a T7 at the ZOZO Championship and has now missed the cut in three of his last four starts.
So, it's safe to say this isn't a form play. However, the veteran's history at the WMPO indicate that this could be a spot for him to get his game back on track. Grace's last two trips to Phoenix have resulted in a T9 and a runner-up, but more importantly (at least for our confidence level) each result were "island" performances. Translation...Grace showed little form with no notable results neither before or after his strong outings in the WMPO in those years.
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