Horse For The Course: PGA DFS - Bermuda Championship

October 28, 2020

Joe Nicely's under-the-radar DraftKings, FanDuel PGA DFS picks for the Bermuda Championship. His Horse for the Course for daily fantasy golf based on course history.

Hello PGA DFS family and thanks for joining me here at RotoBaller! The ZOZO Championship provided us with a star-studded leaderboard over the weekend. Patrick Cantlay - a player that had something of a disappointing season going - overcame both Justin Thomas and Jon Rahm in the final round to take down the limited-field event.

Last week was a weird one for this article, as it's always tough to write a course history article on a layout that's new to the schedule. It's a little more of the same this week, as we head to the islands for the Bermuda Championship, an event that's being held for just the second time.

Horse For The Course is an article that highlights players in this week's field with elite course history and is part of our free PGA DFS content here at RotoBaller. For my favorite DFS plays of the week check out my Core Four article here at RotoBaller every Wednesday. It's part of our amazing PGA Premium package that includes an all-new PGA Research Station, Lineup Builder & Optimizer, and some of the best articles in the PGA DFS industry! You can sign up now using Promo Code: NICE for an extra discount at checkout!

Bermuda Championship Overview

After a couple of no-cut events with elite, limited fields, we're faced with the opposite this week for the Bermuda Championship, an event that's in just its second year of existence, and will welcome something of a "motley crew" of entrants. This field is a little reminiscent of the Corales Puntacana event that we dealt with a month ago.

Brendon Todd won last year's inaugural Bermuda Championship and he'll be back to defend this week. He'll be joined by a field that's fairly devoid of star power, but contains an interesting blend of veterans and young up-and-comers...with players like Will Zalatoris, Doc Redman, Harold Varner III, and Denny McCarthy being among those that immediately stick out with the best current form. Some "pedigree plays" like Henrik Stenson, Stewart Cink, and Danny Willett will be teeing it up, as will a couple of guys in the "potential future star" bucket like Justin Suh and Rasmus Hojgaard. While this certainly isn't what we'd call a "marquee event", this tournament carries lots of importance for the players in the field in the form of FedEx Cup points and playing privileges on the PGA Tour.

Like the last couple of weeks, we're at something of a disadvantage from a course history perspective, as we only have one year of results from the Bermuda Championship (and no ShotLink data) to work with this week. As always, we'll do our best and try to crack the code on this event. Let's tee it up!

You can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week. And be sure to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!

The Course: Port Royal GC

Par 71 - 6,828 Yards, Greens: Bermuda , Designed By: Robert Trent Jones

Port Royal is one of the shortest courses we'll see on the PGA Tour schedule at just over 6,828 yards. As a result, one of the Tour's shortest hitters (Brendon Todd) emerged victorious from last season's inaugural Bermuda Championship at 24-under par. Last year's event wasn't Port Royal's first brush with the pros, as the PGA Grand Slam of Golf (an unofficial event) was played here between 2009 and 2014.

What immediately sticks out about this course is the number of short Par-4s that players will face. According to the scorecard, we're looking at SIX Par-4 holes that come in under 400 yards! The field will need to capitalize on these scoring opportunities, as well as the three gettable Par-5s that ranked as the three easiest holes on the course in last year's tournament. With the combination of these very scoreable holes, I'll be heavily targeting players that have the ability to rack up birdies. While I fully expect scores this week to be ridiculously low, this is obviously a coastal track - and though we didn't see the wind get up last season - conditions would get tougher if there's an increase in the wind this week. As with the TPC Summerlin layout that we dealt with at the Shriners a few weeks ago, this is a course that doesn't eliminate any "type" of player, as both short hitters and bombers have the ability to thrive on this track. Last year's Bermuda leaderboard is a strong reflection of that, as names like Todd and Harry Higgs, were joined by longer hitters such as Aaron Wise and Scottie Scheffler.

Recent Champions & Winning Scores

• Brendon Todd (-24)
• N/A
• N/A
• N/A
• N/A

The Horse

Doc Redman

DraftKings: $10,400
FanDuel: $10,900
Notable Course History: T35 ('20)

The Bermuda Championship field is certainly a thin one, thin enough that I think it’s fair to label Doc Redman a “class of the field” type of player. Doc is a young man that’s been on our DFS radars for a good portion of the year - even in fairly strong-field events - so he certainly jumps to the top of the list for me this week.

Redman has some Bermuda Championship experience under his belt, posting a so-so T35 in the inaugural edition last season. It’s easy to forget that the stud out of Clemson is still just 22-years-old, but the youngster’s game has certainly evolved since he last teed it up in Bermuda. He’s demonstrated strong upside recently, posting T3 finishes in two of his last five starts.

Doc not only stands out as a class above the majority of this field, but his game also profiles as a nice fit for this Port Royal layout. Over the last 24 rounds, Redman grades out first in this week’s Bermuda field in Good Drives Gained and second in GIRs Gained. In addition to those strong tee-to-green markers, he also ranks 10th in SG: Putting on Bermuda over the same time frame. 

The Ponies

Denny McCarthy

DraftKings: $9,500
FanDuel: $11,200
Notable Course History: T15 ('20)

I’ve highlighted Denny McCarthy multiple times over the past couple of months, but feel as though we must go back to the well again this week. D-Mac recorded a very solid T15 in this event last season and once again profiles as a great fit on this Port Royal layout.

Ballstriking isn’t really Denny’s strength, though he has been accurate off the tee as of late, ranking 12th in this week’s field in Fairways Gained. What we’re after is McCarthy’s other-worldly putting ability (second in the field in SG: Putting on Bermuda), which allows him to make tons of birdies (second in the field in Birdies or Better Gained). This is an ability that we need on layouts such as this week’s, as the tendency for these types of events is to devolve into birdiefests that - to put it in simple terms - are almost “putting contests”. There is no one I’d rather have in a putting contest than McCarthy.

Henrik Norlander

DraftKings: $8,900
FanDuel: $10,600
Notable Course History: T28 ('20)

Norlander is a player that’s been in our DFS orbit a bit this summer and has rewarded us with some good outings, including going T12-T31-T6-T23 during a hot stretch in the month of July. As most of these guys do, Norlander eventually came back to Earth and missed three-straight cuts from August to September. 

Now, the 33-year-old might be trending in the right direction again. He’s made the cut in his last two starts and posted an impressive T4 at the Sanderson on the strength of gaining 7.1 strokes putting on that layout’s - you guessed it - Bermuda greens. Norlander grades out 18th in this field in SG: Putting on Bermuda and also boasts a rank of 14th in Birdies or Better Gained. He’s a bit “boom or bust”, but when we throw his upside in with his prior experience at Port Royal, he jumps squarely into serious GPP consideration this week.

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Russell Knox

DraftKings: $7,600
FanDuel: $9,600
Notable Course History: T11 ('20)

As with most of these "weaker field" events, things get pretty ugly as we work our way down the salary scale. Russell Knox feels a little fishy at $7.6k - largely to to his overall pedigree, rather than his recent form - but I'm willing to take the bait on Knox in this spot.

He posted a T11 in this event last year and Port Royal has all the trademarks of a "Russell Knox track"...as accuracy off the tee and precise ball striking is the order of the day on this course. Unfortunately, Knox has spent the large majority of 2020 in abysmal form, missing a head-scratching 10 consecutive cuts during one stretch. However, the Scotsman's game has looked improved as of late. He's gained strokes on Approach in four his last five starts and popped for a T9 at the Safeway last month. His putting has been gross - which is a legit concern this week - but he has been giving himself scoring looks recently and stands 13th in the field in Opportunities Gained over the last 12 rounds. Bottom line, we're dealing with lesser-caliber players in this event, which means we must be willing to embrace the volatility that's inherent with these guys.

Beau Hossler

DraftKings: $8,700
FanDuel: $6,900
Notable Course History: T24 ('20)

You won't find Beau Hossler in this article very often due to his relatively poor iron play, but - as I mentioned with Denny McCarthy - I'm giving more weight to putting ability this week, an area where Hossler is one of the best on the PGA Tour. He ranks second to only the aforementioned McCarthy in SG: Putting on Bermuda using long-term metrics and was able to parlay his smooth work on the greens into a top-25 result in last season's Bermuda Championship. In addition to the course history, Hossler has been on a solid little run as of late, making the cut in each of his last five starts and posting a top-25 at the Safeway last month. While I never love to depend on a player's putting output, it's an exception I'm willing to make on a week such as this. Hossler is one of a small contingent of viable salary savers available on this slate.

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