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It has become one of the most volatile positions in the NFL. Running backs get injured at a higher rate than other skill positions because of the number of reps. Then they feel as if they're not paid enough and we see guys "holding in" this offseason. When will Josh Jacobs, J.K. Dobbins, and Jonathan Taylor join their teams? Will Taylor really be traded? It's anyone's guess.
This article won't try to predict the unknown situations, but what it will do is identify five running backs that are being overvalued in 2023. In the early rounds, maybe it's preferable to scoop up a couple of elite WRs, a top TE, and a top QB instead. Do yourself a favor and avoid these five backs at their ADP.
These guys have all put up big seasons in the past, but at the running back position, it's hard to sustain that level of performance for years on end. These guys aren't necessarily going to bust, but they're being overvalued in 2023. Stay away from these five running backs this season.
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Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts
There are multiple concerns right now with JT. First and foremost, he's not practicing. Whether that's because of his injury rehab or his contract/trade request situation is unclear, but either way, he hasn't been getting reps in camp. For this article, we'll assume he remains in Indy.
Second, the Colts now have a mobile quarterback in Anthony Richardson. Richardson rushed 103 times for 654 yards and nine touchdowns in 12 games at Florida in 2022. He's going to be a weapon on the ground, which naturally will take some work away from JT. It won't just be the carries between the 20s, Richardson is going to vulture some touchdowns as well.
Not only did the Colts take the most dynamic dual-threat quarterback with the fourth overall pick, they added an elite pass-catching running back in the 5th round of the Draft. While the draft capital won't scare most away, Hull had 88 receptions on 119 targets in his final two seasons at Northwestern. This is Shane Steichen's new Kenneth Gainwell. Gainwell saw 50 targets on just a 28% snap share as a rookie. He was also 6th amongst all running backs in yards per route run (1.73) as a rookie, per PlayerProfiler. Gainwell was also a 5th-round pick.
We already saw in 2022 what happens when a running back dips in efficiency from the season before. In 2021, Taylor was RB1 overall with a 5.45 yards per carry average and 18 touchdowns on 332 carries. That's insane efficiency for that type of workload. Last season, he only played 11 games, but he averaged just 4.48 yards per carry and scored just four touchdowns on 192 carries. He returned over 15 half-PPR fantasy points in three games.
Jonathan Taylor is being overvalued in fantasy football in 2023.
Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers
Najee Harris, just like a season ago, is being overvalued in fantasy football drafts this season. Last season, he finished as the RB18 on a per-game basis in half-PPR. This season, he's being drafted around RB11 per FantasyPros ADP.
Najee's opportunity share and snap share dropped significantly from his rookie season to his sophomore season. As a rookie, he was first amongst all running backs in both categories (86.4% and 84.5%, respectively). Last season, he was 10th and 11th (69.9% and 65.1%, respectively). Harris was pretty awful in terms of efficiency in 2022, averaging just 3.7 true yards per carry and 4.0 yards per touch, per PlayerProfiler. As a rookie, he relied heavily on volume to overcome his efficiency woes. Even still, despite his #1 overall workload in 2021, Najee finished as the RB9 on a per-game basis.
So why did Najee lose all that work? Jaylen Warren. This guy is so much better than people realize and he can do it all. In fact, he's getting ready to take even more of the work from Harris in 2023:
He's going to play on a lot of 3rd downs if he continues to block like that and playing on 3rd downs means targets. Those targets are what Harris needs to become a top-15 RB, which I don't see happening. Look at how Warren hits this hole and accelerates! There's no chance he doesn't eat into even more of Najee Harris' workload this season.
Even if he slides a little bit in drafts, Najee is on what I would refer to as my "do not draft list" this season. He could be a back-end RB2, but his current price tag is a back-end RB1, which is entirely too rich for my blood. Steer clear.
Kenneth Walker III, Seattle Seahawks
Don't get me wrong, Kenneth Walker is a good running back. That's still not enough to justify his RB15 ADP. He was pretty good as a rookie, averaging 4.61 yards per carry across 228 carries with nine rushing touchdowns. After taking over as the starter in Week 4, Walker averaged 14 half-PPR fantasy points per game, which would have been good for RB12. However, his value was boosted by scoring multiple touchdowns in three games and scoring five straight games between Weeks 5 and 9. Impressive, but maybe not sustainable.
So why can't Walker replicate what he did as a rookie? Well, the Seahawks felt compelled to draft Zach Charbonnet in the 2nd round. 2nd-round running backs are going to play, especially as we move into the era of not spending high draft capital on running backs. What does Charbonnet do? Frankly, he does all the things that Ken Walker doesn't do as well. He's bigger, could be better around the goal line, and has very soft hands in the passing game.
Meanwhile, Walker still isn't practicing as he recovers from a groin injury he suffered at some point early in camp. Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll is notoriously awful at predicting injury timelines, so it's anyone's guess when he'll be back in action. So while Walker remains on the sidelines, Charbonnet continues to get reps with the ones. That's not to say Walker won't eventually regain his "starting" job, but's also at risk of losing some high-value touches to Charbonnet this season.
Last season, Walker had under four targets in 12 of his 15 games. He had zero or one target in seven games. If he's not scoring touchdowns, the upside just isn't there with Charbonnet looming. At their respective ADPs (RB15 vs. RB40), give me all the Charbonnet this season. Walker is the overvalued running back in the Seattle backfield this season. One groin tweak for Walker and Charbonnet is a league-winning back that you selected in the 10th round. Meanwhile, Walker could be a league-winner if Charbonnet misses time, but he'll cost you a fourth-round pick, so the value isn't quite there. And there's also a chance he doesn't get the targets even if Charbonnet is out, he didn't as a rookie.
Cam Akers, Los Angeles Rams
Akers has never been all that productive, but he's had some good fantasy performances as a result of heavy workloads. He's also never had more than four targets in a single game, which is a major ding for a running back in fantasy football, given a target is worth far more than a carry in terms of expected points.
Generally speaking, Akers' big performances have come in games he's played over 70% of the snaps. In this day and age, running backs that see such heavy workloads are few and far between. In 2022, albeit coming off an Achilles tear the year before, Akers averaged fewer than 10 fantasy points per game in games he didn't eclipse a 70% snap share. And while Akers is considered the "lead" back in this offense, it looks like Kyren Williams could be utilized in a 1B-type way this season:
The Rams like Williams more than Akers in pass protection. That's meaningful, especially considering this Rams team probably won't be very good. In fact, they have the 3rd-lowest win total this season at just 6.5 wins. Williams could be on the field more than Akers backers would like to admit. Not to mention the Rams have one of the worst offensive lines in football.
The negative game scripts mixed with a sub-par offensive line and a mostly inefficient back who tore his Achilles two years ago don't give me good vibes. With an RB18 ADP, Akers is being overvalued in 2023.
Dameon Pierce, Houston Texans
You'll start to see a pattern here. I think most running backs on sub-par offenses that don't have the passing-down role are overvalued in fantasy football. Dameon Pierce is no different. This offseason, the Texans made a point to add Devin Singletary to the mix. Singletary was an above-average blocker last season with the Bills. Additionally, he's had 50+ targets in each of the last three seasons, despite Josh Allen not checking down to his running backs very often.
Pierce did have 39 targets in just 13 games last season, but bringing in Singletary doesn't exactly give us confidence the Texans want to use Pierce on 3rd downs or obvious passing downs, since that's where Singletary has excelled in his career.
Did you know Singletary ran the 6th-most routes amongst all running backs a season ago? Well, now you do! This is his specialty. Pierce will be the early-down grinder, Singletary the pass-catching and 3rd-down back. That's ok in real life, but for fantasy football purposes, we want running backs who will play on passing downs. We want running backs that will play in the two-minute drill. I'm not sure Pierce will be that guy in 2023.
And much like Akers with the Rams, the Texans might not be very good. In 2022, despite having 32 red zone carries, Pierce had just seven carries inside the 5. In comparison, Derrick Henry had 36 red zone carries and 15 carries inside the 5. With just a 4.27 yards per carry average, it'll be tough for Pierce to crush in fantasy football due to the limited touchdown and pass-catching upside. He could be on the field even less if the Texans decide they need Singletary to pass block more now that RT Tytus Howard is out for a couple of months.
Fade Dameon Pierce and his RB21 ADP in 2023.
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