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Joe Nicely's fantasy football rookie sleepers and "must have" draft picks for the 2023 NFL season and fantasy football drafts. He looks at NFL rookies currently being undervalued.
Different fantasy managers will have different thoughts on how to handle NFL rookies in annual fantasy football drafts. Some will tell you to exercise restraint on players that are unproven commodities, while others will advise you to draft without fear in an attempt to get talented young players with upside on your roster.
At the end of the day, the right answer probably falls somewhere in the middle, as we'll see some rookies perform above expectations, while several will fall short of lofty projections.
Personally, I like to feel as though I'm getting great value when I pull the trigger on a rookie in my drafts, although I won't hesitate to be aggressive on players I feel strongly about. I want to take the long view and attempt to envision who a player might be in Week 8 or during the fantasy football playoffs. If you're the type of fantasy manager that's quick to cut players from your roster if they don't perform well in Week 1, targeting rookies in fantasy drafts likely isn't for you! Remember, it's a long season full of ebbs and flows, and that's especially true for players during their first year in the NFL. Let's take a look at my rookie "Must Haves" for 2023 fantasy football drafts.
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Anthony Richardson - QB, Indianapolis Colts
2023 ADP: QB16
A physical phenom that put together perhaps the most impressive NFL Combine performance in the history of the QB position, Anthony Richardson appears to have been built in a lab with the purpose of scoring fantasy football points. A talented rusher with a rocket arm, Richardson is often labeled raw due to his lack of experience at the college level (he only started 13 games at the University of Florida), but he's shown enough in Indy's training camp for the organization to name him their starter for 2023.
We all know Anthony Richardson is going to run. He’s going to be a Top 10 fantasy QB because of that. But him being a better passer than anticipated this year is in the range of outcomes and if so he can go nuclear pic.twitter.com/aG1kLlHTSl
— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) August 17, 2023
The biggest concern going into 2023 was just how much Richardson would actually be on the field during his rookie campaign. With that issue addressed, we can now focus on his ridiculous fantasy-scoring potential. He comes with a nice built-in floor due to his ability to run the football - he rushed for 654 yards and nine TDs at Florida last year - and possesses very legitimate upside as a passer thanks to his canon-like arm strength.
If Richardson develops as a thrower throughout the season under the tutelage of Colts head coach Shane Steichen, the sky is the limit. While there's always lots of uncertainty with rookie QBs - especially one as unpolished as Richardson - his elite potential makes him at a risk worth taking at his current ADP and a QB that I'll be eager to snag at the tail-end of fantasy drafts.
Zay Flowers - WR, Baltimore Ravens
2023 ADP: WR47
After a highly-productive, four-year career at Boston College, the Ravens tabbed Zay Flowers with the 22nd overall pick of the 2023 NFL Draft. The versatile Flowers can play both in the slot and on the perimeter and has reportedly impressed the Baltimore coaching staff during training camp.
The 22-year-old already profiles as the Ravens WR3, but with the ancient Odell Beckham Jr. and injury-riddled Rashod Bateman ahead of him on the depth chart, he could soon be playing a key role in this new-look Ravens passing attack that's heading into its first year with new offensive coordinator Todd Monken. Historically, Monken has utilized a fast-paced, pass-heavy offensive scheme, which would serve to increase Flowers' already intriguing fantasy upside.
An explosive dynamo, Flowers is perhaps the most pro-ready receiver in this year's rookie class. He should see the field early and often, and there's a great chance that he evolves into Lamar Jackson's number-two option behind Mark Andrews as the season progresses.
Zay Flowers had him in a blender 🌀
(🎥 @jamisonhensley)pic.twitter.com/2AmIP9OEgf
— PFF (@PFF) August 16, 2023
Quentin Johnston - WR, Los Angeles Chargers
ADP: WR46
Ok...if you're a "you can't predict injuries" person, you might want to turn away now. Since coming into the NFL in 2017, Mike Williams has never started every game in a season. Keenan Allen is 31 and was limited to appearing in just 10 games last year. Translation...there's a strong chance that Chargers rookie Quentin Johnston will get plenty of opportunities this year.
Quentin Johnston finds the end zone for the first time ⚡️
pic.twitter.com/2VMz7numBj— PFF (@PFF) August 13, 2023
The 6'4", 215 lbs, Johnston will likely open the season with a role in 3-WR sets and that alone is probably enough to justify taking a late-round fantasy flier on him. While he'll primarily work downfield in this revamped Chargers offense under new OC Kellen Moore, Johnston proved himself to be a RAC beast while at TCU, finishing the 2022 season second in the NCAA in that statistical category.
With Justin Herbert throwing him the football in an offense that's expected to be one of the most explosive units in the league, the rookie wideout is one of the more exciting high-upside stashes of the 2023 rookie class.
Marvin Mims Jr. - WR, Denver Broncos
2023 ADP: WR73
Denver's decision to trade up to grab Marvin Mims Jr. in the second round of the 2023 NFL Draft is a strong indicator of how they feel about the Oklahoma speedster. If that vote of confidence weren't enough, Mims suddenly has what appears to be a very clear path to playing time with Broncos WR Tim Patrick out for the season with an Achilles injury and K.J. Hamler temporarily stepping away from football to treat a heart condition.
An explosive, big-play specialist that averaged nearly 20 yards per reception at Oklahoma, Mims should be an instant downfield threat that reminds Denver QB Russell Wilson of his former Seahawks teammate Tyler Lockett. While he'll likely mix in right away as the Broncos WR3, the rookie could work his way up the depth chart as the season unfolds with often-injured Jerry Jeudy and often-underwhelming Courtland Sutton ahead of him in Denver's pecking order.
Broncos WR Marvin Mims, a Sean Payton draft selection, steps into the WR3 role after Patrick's season-ending injury. He has the potential to make a significant impact in his rookie year. #BroncosCountry pic.twitter.com/gOtelfCrNf
— JOSE ALVARES (@Alvaresjose11) August 8, 2023
De'Von Achane - RB, Miami Dolphins
2023 ADP: RB39
The true definition of a boom-or-bust fantasy prospect, Dolphins rookie Devon Achane possesses a scary-low floor, but a ceiling that's very intriguing in Mike McDaniel's run scheme. A track athlete in both high school and at Texas A&M, Achane possesses elite speed and explosiveness, which he displayed both on the field while in college and at the NFL Combine, where he blazed a 4.32 40-time that was the fastest at the running back position this year.
every De'Von Achane touch from his pre-szn debut vs. atlanta // #finsup // pic.twitter.com/sfiEVLlPfY
— josh houtz (@houtz) August 12, 2023
His compact stature, along with the presence of Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr., will likely keep him from being a true three-down back in the NFL, but his dynamic home-run ability should make the Dolphins eager to get him on the field in whatever way possible. I'm also giving the rookie a bump due to Dalvin Cook's recent signing with the New York Jets, as Miami was thought to be a finalist for Cook's services. Although Achane is a capable runner between the tackles, he truly shines in space. He's a deadly perimeter runner that can turn any play into a touchdown.
From a fantasy perspective, he'll likely be a feast-or-famine asset that blows up for huge games, while being a non-factor in others. Despite that volatile projection, something tells me that McDaniel - one of the league's sharper offensive minds - will find ways to get the electric Achane involved enough to make him a fantasy-viable asset this season.
Tank Bigsby - RB, Jacksonville Jaguars
2023 ADP: RB45
Tank Bigsby's star has been on the rise throughout the preseason, as the Auburn alum has appeared to firmly establish himself behind Travis Etienne in the Jaguars backfield. While Etienne was impressive overall in his first full NFL campaign following foot surgery in 2022, he was underwhelming both in goal-line situations and as a receiver - areas that project as strengths for Bigsby.
Tank Bigsby hit the pause button real quick
The Jaguars are featuring Bigsby with a full workload today and he’s showcasing solid patience vision and burst in between the tackles
The Jags got a good one pic.twitter.com/2kl6YDIxBi
— Joe O’Leary (@TheHQNerd) August 19, 2023
The former four-star high school prospect was a productive, three-year player at Auburn. Bigsby cranked out 834 rushing yards as a freshman in 2020 and topped 900 rushing yards in each of his subsequent seasons on the Plains. It's fair to wonder how much Bigsby's lack of a supporting cast in a slumping Auburn program hurt his production, although he still averaged 5.4 yards per carry last season – breaking an impressive 60 tackles – while playing behind one of the SEC's worst offensive lines.
He's a fierce pass protector and displayed excellent hands while reeling in 51 catches across his last two seasons in college, both traits which will accelerate his path to playing time this season. Bigsby has looked explosive in the preseason, rushing for 70 yards on 13 carries in the Jags' most recent outing. This could be closer to a shared backfield than many expected ahead of Tank's arrival in Duval and I'm targeting him heavily in 2023 fantasy football drafts as a result.
Dalton Kincaid - TE, Buffalo Bills
2023 ADP: TE11
Although the tight end position is notoriously a tough one for rookies, Dalton Kincaid has the potential to make an immediate impact in this explosive Buffalo Bills offense. The presence of incumbent TE Dawson Knox appears to put a damper on Kincaid's potential production, however, the fact that Buffalo traded up to select Kincaid in the first round of the 2023 NFL draft speaks volumes about his talent and the organization's intentions of getting him on the field as an extra weapon for Josh Allen.
With some serious draft capital invested in the former Utah Ute - and a need for offensive playmakers - we can expect Buffalo to allow the athletically-gifted Kincaid to steadily eat into Knox's targets as the season progresses and he's the Bills tight end that fantasy managers should prefer to roster. We can expect him to serve as something of a TE/WR hybrid that should add a vertical pass-catching element to the position for Allen.
Dalton Kincaid is a matchup mismatch working the slot
Kincaid demonstrating a lot of the traits we saw in college will translate to the next level immediately
Such a smooth mover
pic.twitter.com/3PRb280Blh— Joe O’Leary (@TheHQNerd) August 20, 2023
A talented pass catcher, Kincaid averaged a chunky 13.2 yards per reception while at Utah. While Knox's presence will likely negatively impact his consistency to a degree, the rookie brings some tantalizing explosiveness to the table at a position that can be rage-inducing for fantasy managers. In drafts where I'm unable to snag an elite tight end, I'm comfortable picking up Kincaid in tandem with a proven, mid-tier TE option.
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