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Danny takes a look at which quarterbacks are going too early in fantasy football drafts. Which quarterbacks should you avoid at their current ADP in fantasy drafts?
It is an age-old question in fantasy football. Wait until the late rounds to draft a quarterback, or secure the position early and have a stud for the season? It’s easy to get fooled by a big-name quarterback, especially as they start falling off the board during the draft.
Amidst the hype, there's always the risk of drafting a quarterback who ends up a fantasy bust, leaving your team stranded in the desert of disappointment. Several shiny QBs are sporting ADPs this year that might have you reaching for the proverbial "do not draft" marker.
So, as you dive into your drafts, fantasy managers must look beyond the hype and focus on the stats and trends that will guide you to victory. Avoid these overvalued quarterbacks at their current draft position and aim for players who offer genuine value. Your fantasy team—and your sanity—will thank you. Let's peel back the layers and expose the potential risks of these overvalued signal-callers.
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Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
FFPC ADP: 46.85
Yes, I know. Patrick Mahomes, the man who seems to do it all—scramble, throw, dazzle, and win Super Bowls—is on this list. Let's face facts: Mahomes is an incredible real-life quarterback, but in fantasy terms, he's not the savior you're drafting him to be at QB4. First off, the Chiefs' offense has become more balanced. They aren't the air-it-out team of a few years ago; instead, they are leaning more on the run game and short passing routes. Mahomes' deep passes, which make fantasy managers salivate, are fewer and farther between.
Last season, Mahomes posted 4,183 yards and 27 touchdowns—solid numbers, no doubt. With an ADP of QB4, you're expecting week-winning performances week in and week out. In reality, last season he was only the QB10 on a points-per-game basis and he only finished as a top-10 quarterback in fantasy points in seven out of his 17 games played. Factor the lack of high-end weapons at receiver, and you're looking at a quarterback who, while still elite, won't provide the consistent fireworks you need from a top-four quarterback pick in the fourth round.
If Pat Mahomes just had better receivers… he wouldnt throw pick sixes. @getnickwright
— Joe Miller III (@joemillerwired) December 25, 2023
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
FFPC ADP: 72.23
One name might justify drafting Dak Prescott as a QB1: CeeDee Lamb. If fantasy managers believe Lamb can repeat his breakout season, Prescott’s floor can provide solid production. The problem is that the Cowboys were quiet during the off-season, and with a questionable run game, defenses can game-plan against the pass. After Lamb, the Cowboys (who run 3-receiver sets 70% of the time) will be trotting out Brandin Cooks (soon to be 31), Jalen Tolbert, and Ryan Flournoy -- not exactly household names.
Those with Prescott on their roster last season won’t forget a fantasy football playoff game in week 15 vs Buffalo in which Prescott produced a whopping 7.4 points. And that wasn’t even his lowest point total of the season!
Compared to other quarterbacks in the same ADP range like Joe Burrow or Anthony Richardson, it's clear that Prescott lacks the same consistency or ceiling. Burrow has a proven track record with multiple elite weapons, while Richardson has the rushing floor that can win you weeks with his legs alone. Prescott, on the other hand, is more likely to frustrate you with boom-or-bust performances.
Jaire Alexander playing on a bum ankle makes a HUGE INTERCEPTION on Dak Prescott💥💥💥pic.twitter.com/c78t3Bb5CC
— IKE Packers Podcast (@IKE_Packers) January 14, 2024
Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers
FFPC ADP: 85.92
The Green Bay Packers' next big quarterback, Jordan Love, looks to land in the top 10 in many drafts this year. Before you jump on the hype train, let's pump the brakes. Love has shown flashes of potential, but he's also demonstrated inconsistency. In 2023, he threw for 4,159 yards and 32 touchdowns but added 11 interceptions. Love had weeks in which he would have lost fantasy managers their matchup single-handedly, scoring under 20 fantasy points on six separate weeks, including a stinker where he only put up 6.8.
Love becomes a much riskier proposition when you can snag consistent quarterback Brock Purdy or high-ceiling Kyler Murray (his legs can put him into elite status) in the later rounds. In addition to the fact that there are possible holdout implications, as Love is looking for a new contract, managers may want to wait on drafting Love.
Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins
FFPC ADP: 120.77
Tua Tagovailoa is an intriguing prospect, but he's being drafted higher than he should be for several reasons. Yes, he has a trio of elite receivers in Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and Odell Beckham Jr., but his injury history (to be fair, he played all of his games in 2023) and inconsistency make him a risky QB1.
In the games he did play, he was often spectacular, but he also had several clunkers. For example, he started week one with 33.8 points, followed that up in week two with 14.8 points, then blew up in week three with 31.5 points, and then produced 18.8 points in week four. In Tagovailoa’s final five weeks, he did not break the 20-point barrier once.
In the same ADP range, you can find quarterbacks like Trevor Lawrence, who offer more consistency and durability. Tua's upside is tantalizing, but the risk is too high to justify taking him at QB12.
Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
FFPC ADP: 128
Justin Herbert rounds out the list. While his talent is undeniable, his fantasy value only lives up to the hype of prior years. Herbert finished the 2023 season as the QB22, with a noticeable dip in his touchdown numbers at 20. His ADP keeps dropping, but it might not be far enough.
One of the most significant issues is the talent around him at receiver and the new Chargers' offensive scheme. Roster losses of key players like Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Austin Ekeler (an elite receiving back) will hurt him. His top receiving threats are Josh Palmer, DJ Chark (career depth receivers), and second-year player Quentin Johnston (who had an extremely disappointing rookie season last year).
As for the offensive scheme, new head coach Jim Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Greg Roman have a run-first mentality that will limit his pass attempts. Herbert may have a better real-life football season, but do not expect significant numbers from the uber-talented quarterback.
HORRIFIC: #Chargers 1st round pick WR Quentin Johnston with a HORRENDOUS DROP that could’ve help them win the game
— MLFootball (@_MLFootball) November 19, 2023
Conclusion
Drafting a quarterback in fantasy football is a critical decision to make or break your season. While the names above carry star power and potential, their ADPs suggest a level of production and consistency they are unlikely to deliver. Patrick Mahomes, Jordan Love, Dak Prescott, Tua Tagovailoa, and Justin Herbert are all drafted higher than they should be based on their projected fantasy outputs. Let another fantasy manager draft them ahead of you.
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