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Following the completion of the NFL Draft, there’s no shortage of NFL Draft Grades. Which team did the best? Who did the worst? Who were the biggest winners and losers? Of course, these lists are always subjective and open to interpretation. Someone may really love one player, but dislike another. You ask someone else about the same two players and you might get different answers, which makes draft grades incredibly difficult.
However, there seems to be a lot more of a consensus when it comes to the biggest winners and losers from an individual draft prospect perspective. A receiver being drafted by Kansas City, who is saying that player is a draft day loser? No one, right? While this exercise is subjective, as well, the process tends to be a lot less all over the place.
That’s what we’re going to be doing here today, identifying the biggest winners from day two of the 2023 NFL Draft. We’re going to be looking at players selected only in rounds two and three and identifying the players who are this year’s biggest winners for their immediate fantasy football value. In the next installment, we'll be identifying some of the biggest fantasy football losers from day two of the 2023 NFL Draft.
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Will Levis, Tennessee Titans
At first glance, falling to the second round could technically qualify Will Levis as one of the biggest losers and if you take that perspective, I certainly won’t argue with you. If you’re looking at it from a draft capital and contract perspective, you’d be 100% correct. However, I’m looking at this more so through a lens of did this player land on a team where there’s a clear pathway to starting sooner than later and somewhere they can be productive. In that sense, Levis is a winner. I know I said we're looking at immediate fantasy football value, but we're going to make an exception for Levis since he's a quarterback. This position comes with a steep learning curve and if he has to wait one year, that's not the end of the world. In fact, it truly may be the best thing for him.
He’ll start behind Ryan Tannehill to start the 2023 NFL season, but that might be the best thing for him. Levis, categorized by many draft analysts, is a bit of a project, and being thrown to the wolves in year one, especially with the minimal pass-catchers in Tennessee could be brutal. The team certainly isn’t set up for success for a young quarterback.
The offensive line looks poor and the pass-catchers need work. With that said, Tennessee has been one of the most productive teams in the NFL since 2018, head coach Mike Vrabel’s first season with the team. Since that time, the Titans have won 48 games, which is tied for the eighth-most in the NFL. Vrabel has proven to be an excellent coach and someone who gets the most out of his players. Don’t overlook the fact that Ryan Tannehill’s career was dead in the water before resurrecting his career with Vrabel’s Titans.
He’ll get a season to learn the ropes of the NFL, immerse himself in the Titans’ playbook, refine his skills, and the Titans will get another year to get more quality offensive players to surround him with. Tannehill is in the last year of his contract, which sets Levis up to become the primary starter next season. While the fall to the second round wasn’t ideal, landing in Tennessee is a great starting point for his career.
Sam LaPorta, Detroit Lions
Detroit traded former tight end T.J. Hockenson to the Minnesota Vikings before the trade deadline last season. Following that move, the Lions used a tight end by committee approach. Brock Wright, James Mitchell, and Shane Zylstra all became involved in the game plan. However, only one of those players was drafted – Mitchell in the fifth round – which gives LaPorta a clear pathway to starting early in 2023.
While the Lions re-signed Josh Reynolds and brought back Marvin Jones Jr., the team needs additional pass-catchers. That’s especially true after former 2022 first-round pick, Jameson Williams was suspended for the first six games of the 2023 season for gambling after missing most of his rookie season recovering from a torn ACL.
LaPorta is going to get every opportunity to start atop the depth chart. Quarterback Jared Goff had one the lowest intended air yard per attempt averages in the NFL at just 7.0 yards, verifying what everyone has always known, he doesn’t attack defenses down the field very often. His shorter depth of target could lead to more target opportunities for a tight end likely to operate close to the line of scrimmage.
LaPorta racked up 179 targets, 111 receptions, 1,326 yards, and four touchdowns over the last two years at Iowa, finishing as the team’s leading receiver in both seasons. He finished with a 23.8% target share over time and displayed an elite skillset as a pass-catcher. That could be put on display as early as 2023.
Michael Mayer, Las Vegas Raiders
Michael Mayer is another big draft winner despite falling to the second round after having been thought of as a sure-fire first-round pick. The landing spot, however, couldn’t be much better. The team traded Darren Waller this offseason and due to terrible circumstances, Foster Moreau did not resign with the team. Instead, Las Vegas opted to take some duct tape to the tight end position, signing veterans Austin Hooper and O,J, Howard. That is, of course, until they selected Mayer in the second round.
Mayer should have no problem beating out those two veterans for playing time right away. Neither player offers the level of pass-catching upside or the all-around skill set that he does. Mayer was widely viewed as the best all-around tight end in this year’s draft.
Consensus is way down on Michael Mayer when it shouldn’t be. Chargers or Cowboys would’ve been ideal, but no reason to think he can’t be a Top 2 target for the Raiders this year. Their TE depth is putrid. Mayer should play immediately.
— Kyle Lindemann (@LuckIsMadeFF) April 29, 2023
Like LaPorta, Mayer’s new quarterback, Jimmy Garoppolo also did not attack defenses downfield very often. In fact, Jimmy G was even worse in this area than Goff was, finishing with a 6.9 intended air yard per attempt average. He often opted for shorter, safer, and easier throws, which in a nutshell defines the routes tight ends often run.
Over his last two years at Notre Dame, Mayer finished with 205 targets, 138 receptions, 1,649 yards, and 16 touchdowns. He finished with a 26.0% target share, finishing as the team’s leading receiver in both seasons. He’ll have an opportunity to get on the field early and could become a safety valve for Jimmy G in his rookie season.
Jonathan Mingo, Carolina Panthers
Jonathan Mingo had the best landing spot among receivers on day two of the NFL Draft. Not only did he end up going to the same team as the consensus and No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young, but the Panthers have a fairly wide-open depth chart.
The team opted to sign Adam Thielen and DJ Chark, taking the same approach to their receiver position as the Raiders did at tight end. Thielen has not eclipsed 110 targets in a season since 2017. DJ Chark has over 100 targets in just one of his five seasons. Thielen is currently in the middle of a dance with Father Time and the song is almost over. Chark has simply never been all that good, short of a one-hit-wonder season all the way back in 2019.
While these veterans are likely to get first dibs, Mingo’s role should be expected to grow as the season moves along. It should not be a surprise whatsoever if he ends up leading this team in receiving in the second part of the 2023 season.
Mingo will get to grow with new head coach Frank Reich, and quarterback Bryce Young, and he’s got a tremendous opportunity to open as the team’s No. 1 receiver as early as 2024. You couldn’t ask for a better landing spot.
As far as fantasy goes, fantasy managers will need to be patient early as Mingo and Young are likely to experience some growing pains. However, it shouldn’t be surprising if Mingo works his way up to flex-starter by mid-season.
He’s an exceptional player after the catch and if Reich chooses to use Mingo in a similar way the 49ers use Deebo Samuel, he could be a really fun player to roster this season. You have to love the coaching staff, the quarterback, and the depth chart situation moving forward for Mingo. All three arrows are pointing way up.
Rashee Rice, Kansas City Chiefs
If you’re a pass-catcher and the Kansas City Chiefs draft you, you’re a winner. It really is as simple as that. They have the greatest offensive mind in the NFL with head coach, Andy Reid and the greatest quarterback in the NFL with Patrick Mahomes. What more could a prospect ask for?
Chiefs GM Brett Veach sees rookie WR Rashee Rice picking up where JuJu Smith-Schuster left offhttps://t.co/VtD0X2J9c8 pic.twitter.com/B9rdLFOUwV
— Around The NFL (@AroundTheNFL) May 2, 2023
Well, how about a fairly open depth chart at receiver? Because that’s what Rashee Rice has in front of him. The Chiefs have Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Skyy Moore, and Kadarius Toney all at receiver. However, in five seasons, MVS has never had a season with any of the following criteria: 85 targets, 700 yards, and 45 receptions. He’s never hit any of those three thresholds. Simply put, he ain’t it.
Skyy Moore was a 2022 second-round pick who shouldn’t be written off, but whose rookie season was so underwhelming it’s fair to question just what his future is. He finished with just 33 targets, 22 receptions, 250 yards, and 0 touchdowns. He also played on just 29% of the team’s snaps.
Kadarius Toney is entering his third year in the league after being selected in the first round of the 2021 draft by the New York Giants. In two seasons, he’s appeared in just 19 of a total of 34 games. He has 55 catches and 591 yards total or roughly 28 catches and 296 yards each season. The point is, none of these players are guaranteed anything.
Rice had an absolutely ridiculous senior season for SMU, totaling 157 targets, 96 receptions, 1,355 yards, and 10 touchdowns. He had a 30.6% target share and basically operated as SMU’s passing game. Travis Kelce is getting older, but for 2023, who becomes Mahomes’ No. 2 option is completely up in the air. Rice could play his way into that role immediately. That makes him a huge winner.
Hendon Hooker, Detroit Lions
Since Brad Holmes took over as general manager for the Lions in 2021, Detroit has done nothing but get better and better. Since that time, the trade traded Matthew Stafford for Jared Goff. They drafted elite right tackle, Penei Sewell. They landed Amon-Ra St. Brown in the fourth round. Then they drafted Jameson Williams in the first round of the 2022 draft. This past year, they added Jahmyr Gibbs and Sam LaPorta. Talk about a major influx of talent on the offensive side of the ball.
The Lions currently boast a top-five offensive line in the NFL and one of the better running back duos in the league with David Montgomery and Gibbs. They went 3-13-1 in 2021 and then 9-8 in 2022 and were one game away from making the playoffs. This team is going places and moving, very quickly, in the right direction.
Goff has two years left on his contract, but the Lions could very easily move on from him this next offseason. Following the 2023 season, the Lions could cut Goff and save over $26 million, while only taking on a $5 million dead cap hit. Another quarterback, another exception to the immediate fantasy football value criteria I had mentioned before. For Hooker, this makes even more sense since he's not healthy enough to play this season anyways.
Hooker’s 2023 season is all but lost regardless of which team he was drafted to because of a late-season torn ACL in college. He’ll spend this year rehabbing and learning the playbook. However, if he proves he’s ready to lead this team, he could have a chance to start for the team in 2024.
Even if the team decides to ride Goff’s contract out, Hooker has still landed in an excellent spot. The GM and coaching staff have done a tremendous job building this roster. The offense has a great offensive line, great running backs, and solid pass-catchers. Hooker will get the chance to learn the playbook and could become the starter on an up-and-coming Detroit team in the next 1-2 seasons.
Jalin Hyatt, New York Giants
Like Will Levis, if you’re looking at this only through the lenses of draft capital and contract ramifications, Hyatt is one of the bigger losers. He’s coming off a season where he was awarded the Biletnikoff Award for the country’s best collegiate receiver and scoring 15 touchdowns, five of which came against Alabama. Falling to the third round after that kind of season could certainly be viewed as disappointing.
Joe Schoen was clearly high on Jalin Hyatt and I think the Giants will use him a lot this year. I'm very in on him for 2023 in rookie drafts. pic.twitter.com/pemuw8cJLM
— Amr Gabr (@amrgaabr) May 1, 2023
However, he was drafted to a team whose depth chart is completely wide open. The Giants simply have a lot of bodies, but very few NFL producers. They resigned Darius Slayton (who never has had more than 800 yards in four seasons), Isaiah Hodgins (a former sixth-round pick in the 2020 draft), and Sterling Shepard(31 years old and multiple season-ending injuries).
They signed Jamison Crowder (30 years old and has never had 850 yards in eight seasons) and Parris Campbell (a four-year veteran with just 983 total yards and multiple season-ending injuries). It wouldn’t be a stretch to say that Hyatt is the most talented out of the bunch right now. He certainly has the most upside.
The Giants’ head coach is also Brian Daboll who worked wonders in Buffalo with Josh Allen and company. In his first season with the Giants, he righted the Daniel Jones ship and took the franchise to the playoffs for the first time since 2016.
Hyatt had 91 targets in his final season with Tennessee and turned those targets into 67 catches, 1,267 yards, and 15 touchdowns. He averaged 18.9 yards per catch. That speed and ability to threaten a defense vertically are likely to get him on the field very early. He’s in a terrific spot for year-one production with a great coach and a franchise moving in the right direction.
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