RADIO
Last week is officially in the books and we're looking on to Week 9 -- believe it or not, we're almost halfway through the regular season already. And with all of that, we have a lot of good information we can use to help make decisions as we head into Week 9 and beyond.
In this weekly column, we'll be looking at fantasy football players whose arrows may be pointing up and players whose arrows may be pointing down based on the previous week's games.
We'll try not to overreact, but instead use relevant data to make informed decisions about certain players. Here are the key risers and fallers heading into Week 9 of the 2023 NFL season.
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Week 9 Fantasy Football Risers
Trey McBride, Arizona Cardinals
McBride played his first game without Zach Ertz in Week 8 and went absolutely ballistic. He caught 10 balls for 95 yards and a score on 14 targets. His 14 targets equated to a 38.9% target share. Here's how his performance stacks up against some of the all-time greats at the position:
McBride dominated at Colorado State and looks like he's poised to dominate at the NFL level now given the opportunity. Check out where he stands from a route-participation perspective in Week 8 as well:
He was trending up even before his breakout, but now without Ertz, he's a must-roster and truthfully a must-start every week.
Zach Charbonnet, Seattle Seahawks
Speaking of guys trending up, Charbonnet (out of nowhere) played a season-high 59% of the snaps in Week 8. He only had seven opportunities, but that was good for a 41% RB opportunity share. He missed Week 7, but in Week 6, Charbonnet had just a 14.8% RB opportunity share on 24% of the snaps. Check out the breakdown of snaps, routes, and opportunities for the rookie and incumbent starter Kenneth Walker III in Week 8:
Maybe this was a little bit of Walker nursing a calf injury, but he wasn't on the final injury report so this could have also just been the Seahawks wanting to give Charbonnet some more run. Either way, this is very good for Charbonnet going forward on an offense that has scored the 11th most points per game this season.
He's probably the most elite running back handcuff in fantasy football if anything were to happen to Walker, while he's nearing viable flex or even RB2 territory through the Bye Weeks if you're running thin at the position.
Jake Ferguson, Dallas Cowboys
Ferguson has now played 80% or more of the snaps in his last two games. It's an even better sign that his snap share and route participation (83%) stayed high coming out of the Cowboys' Week 7 Bye. That tells you his role and opportunity are likely here to stay. And why shouldn't they? He's playing great football:
CeeDee Lamb dominated targets in Week 8 with 14, but Ferguson was tied for second on the team with his four (catching all of them for 47 yards and a score). What you want out of your fantasy football tight end is a guy who's going to run a lot of routes and be on the field for the majority of snaps. You get that with Ferguson with the bonus of playing on a high-octane offense when things are clicking.
Chuba Hubbard, Carolina Panthers
Coming out of the Bye Week, Hubbard played on 67% of the snaps to Miles Sanders' just 18%. He only produced 54 total yards on 17 touches, but those 17 touches were the most he's had in a game playing with Sanders this season. He saw all the high-value opportunities as well, take a look:
On tap for Hubbard and the Panthers are two very favorable matchups with Indianapolis and Chicago. Despite not racking up a ton of yardage, this team appears poised to let Hubbard get the majority of the work moving forward. He's absolutely the guy you want in this backfield.
Other Fantasy Football Risers:
- Demario Douglas
- David Njoku
- Jayden Reed
- D'Andre Swift
- Javonte Williams
- Dalton Kincaid (was on this list in Week 8, including him again for emphasis)
Week 9 Fantasy Football Fallers
George Pickens, Pittsburgh Steelers
Diontae Johnson was back fully in Week 8. He played on 91% of the snaps and saw 14 targets, good for a 35% target share. That rendered Pickens generally irrelevant (despite the touchdown grab). After averaging 8.3 targets per game in four games without Johnson, Pickens saw just five targets, for a 12.5% target share in Week 8. He was back to "running wind sprints" as the fantasy analysts say.
In 18 career games played with a fully healthy Diontae Johnson, Pickens has seen six or fewer targets in 15 of them. He's caught fewer than four balls in 13 of them. The Steelers play at the fifth-slowest pace in the league and average the fourth-fewest points in the league through eight weeks. There's just not enough meat on the bone for Pickens in this offense playing next to Johnson.
Dameon Pierce, Houston Texans
It's getting ugly for Mr. Pierce. He's essentially in an even split now with Devin Singletary.
From Weeks 1-5, Pierce looked like enough of "the guy" to be fantasy-relevant. He only scored one touchdown but was averaging 19.2 opportunities per game. In the last two games, he's averaged just 12.5 opportunities per game, while Singletary is averaging 13 opportunities per game. Furthermore, Pierce hasn't seen a target since Week 5.
Up next for Pierce and the Texans is a tough matchup against a Buccaneers team allowing the 10th-fewest rushing yards per game this season. Expect more Singletary in that one, suppressing Pierce's ceiling much like in the previous two games.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seattle Seahawks
He's got two touchdowns in his last two games. That's great, but what's not so great is his four targets (just 11% target share) in Week 8 with DK Metcalf back in the lineup. The only time he's gone over 10 half-PPR fantasy points in a game this season was when Metcalf missed due to injury in Week 7. In every other game played with Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, JSN is averaging just 24.3 yards on 4.8 targets per game.
Check out the snap shares in Week 8 with Metcalf back:
His snap share has risen a bit since the Seahawks' Bye in Week 5, but not enough to keep him fantasy-relevant every week. Much like Charbonnet, he's one of the best handcuffs there is at his position on his team, but the week-to-week consistency isn't likely without an injury to another guy ahead of him.
Tony Pollard, Dallas Cowboys
To put it bluntly, Pollard has been terrible this season. All the volume hasn't translated to production, and it's leaving fantasy managers to wonder if he'll ever bounce back. Check this out, he's producing similarly to guys like Dalvin Cook and Latavius Murray, two guys who have been replaced as their teams' RB2.
What's even worse for Pollard is that coming out of the Cowboys' Bye in Week 7, he saw one of his lowest snap shares of the season at 65%. He ceded more work to Rico Dowdle than in any previous week. In fact, Pollard had just a 61% RB opportunity share. In Week 6, his RB opportunity share was a whopping 88%. It appears Dowdle might even be in the Tony Pollard role now from years past:
Other Fantasy Football Fallers:
- Miles Sanders
- Raheem Mostert
- Christian Watson
- Josh Palmer
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