This Year's League-Winning RB Is...

July 29, 2022

League winning running backs are hard to find in fantasy football drafts. Rob Lorge explains why New York Giants RB Saquon Barkley could be that breakout player in 2022.

As fantasy football managers we are constantly looking for players who can be league-winners. The reality is these are incredibly difficult to find and most of our league-winners that occur each year happen due to an injury. Finding a league winner in their current situation is going to cost a premium because if they're already in a league-winning situation, the price isn't going to be cheap. The upside of that possibility alone is incredibly valuable.

While injuries at the running back position happen every year, predicting who that will be is impossible. To be a league-winner, fantasy managers need to find a running back with the potential for a three-down role. Without that kind of volume, the possibility of becoming a league winner simply doesn't exist.

The reality is running backs who finish in the 16–24 range, that mid-to-backend RB2 field, are easily replaceable. This is especially true in any PPR leagues where fantasy managers have more options. In PPR scoring formats, players such as Darrel Williams, J.D. McKissic, and Michael Carter become viable weekly starting options. Since this range of players, even though they're considered starters, do not move the needle in terms of winning, fantasy managers need to be chasing top-10 upside if we're talking about finding a league-winner. We'll be identifying a league-winning running back today you should be targeting as often as you can. To that end, let's look at our primary running back who can swing fantasy leagues in your favor...

Saquon Barkley, New York Giants

Unfortunately, fantasy managers have been tarnished by Saquon Barkley's last two seasons. Just like the real-life NFL GMs, we are infatuated with the whole "what have you done for me lately" premise and we don't ask "what can you do for me" nearly as often as we should. The reality is what happened last year, while it can certainly be a barometer for future success or failure, it doesn't matter. Try your hardest to get rid of the mindset of "this player burned me in the past, so I'm not drafting him again." Barkley can be a league-winner, plain and simple.

He's currently being drafted as the RB10 on Underdog and is ranked as the RB13 here at Rotoballer, but he has the potential to be the RB1 this year. While that may seem extreme based on what we've seen over the last two years, it's true all the same.

Looking forward to the 2022 NFL Season, Barkley is the clear lead back for the Giants. The primary running back behind him is Matt Breida. Over the last two seasons, he has combined for 101 total touches and 547 scrimmage yards. We're talking about a guy who has had 50 touches and 225 yards on average in the last two years. That's nothing and it screams that we should be expecting a monster workload for Barkley entering the new year.

This shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone. Coming off a torn ACL, the Giants brought him along slowly in Week 1, but the following week, they took the training wheels off. Over the next three weeks, Barkley had three straight contests with an 80% or higher snap share. During that time, he had 16 targets and 13 receptions. He was also given 42 carries for a total of 55 touches or 18.3 per game.

In Week 5, Barkley suffered a high-ankle sprain and wouldn't return until Week 11. Over the next three weeks again, he registered snap shares of over 69%. During these three weeks, he received 20 targets and 16 catches. He also was given 30 carries for a total of 46 total touches or 15.3 per game. In the only six games where Barkley played at least 60% of the snaps, he had 36 targets, 29 receptions, and 72 carries. He had 101 total touches or 16.8 per game. What does that look like over 17 games?

We're talking about a pace of 102 targets, 82 receptions, and 204 carries. This equals a total of 286 touches. While you may look at what seems to be a low number of carries, we're still talking about a guy who was on the verge of 300 total touches and was pacing at a top-5 pace in terms of targets and receptions for a running back.

-Saquon Barkley missed 4 games. Played less than 35% of the snaps in 2 more.
-10th in targets per game.
-15th in opportunity share.
-8th in routes run per game.
-10th in route participation.
-9th in target share.
-NYG will be trailing weekly = lots of dump-offs.

PPR BEAST

— Rob (@RobFFSlayer) June 28, 2022

So... You Want Upside, Eh?

If you're looking for a running back with upside, you need one that catches passes. Barkley has been one of the best in that regard since he's come into the NFL. In 2019, the season before he tore his ACL, he earned 73 targets on a 14.8% target share. As a rookie, he had 121 targets (!!!) and an insane 21% target share.

It's not uncommon for athletes to need a year to get over their ACL injury. In 2021, not only was he getting over his ACL injury, but he also suffered a high ankle sprain. Despite this, he still racked up 4.4 targets per game on a 13.8% target share. 4.4 targets on a 17-game pace would equal 75 targets. Even in his worst receiving season, he still would've had a top-5 target total among running backs.

Saquon Barkley still possess a ceiling the likes of which there are only a handful of RBs in the universe capable of reaching.

He once had 91 receptions for 721 receiving yards and scored 24.0 ppg as a rookie.

— Bulletproof Beancounter (@DFBeanCounter) July 20, 2022

Targets are incredibly more valuable than carries, which is why in any PPR scoring format, fantasy managers shouldn't be chasing overall touches, but rather targets and high-value touches. High-value touches are defined as any touch in the red zone. High-value touches come with a higher probability of a touchdown. Last year, in the six weeks Barkley played 60% of the snaps, he commanded a 91% share of the Giants' red zone carries. This is exactly the type of role we want to chase. Touchdowns and targets, this is what we want.

Now, I know what you're thinking – how many touchdowns are there really going to be in New York? That's a very fair question. After all, in the past two seasons, the Giants have ranked 31st in scoring in both years. However, that was with Jason Garrett as the offensive coordinator and Joe Judge as head coach. Garrett was a terrible hire from the get-go, but they've since hired Brian Daboll from the Buffalo Bills.

During his four-year tenure with the Bills, they've improved dramatically on offense. They scored the 30th and 23rd most points in Years 1 and 2, but in 2020 and 2021 – Year 3 and 4 – the Bills ranked second and third in most points scored. There's a very good chance the Giants' offense improves in 2022 and with that improvement comes more scoring opportunities.

If you are worried about his rushing efficiency, there's reason to believe that will improve as well. While his yards per carry average may not have looked great, there are some reasons for optimism. According to PlayerProfiler, he was 21st in yards created per touch with a 2.8-yard average, 17th in juke rate at 28.1%, and 23rd in evaded tackles with 53.  The 53 evaded tackles are even more impressive when you consider he missed four games and only played 60% or more of the snaps in six games.

-Saquon Barkley had the 9th-most average defenders in the box.
-Faced the 5th-most stacked boxes.
-1 yr removed from torn ACL.
-Upgraded OL.

Daboll, a healthy Golladay & Toney will hold defenses more honest in 2022. It'll give Barkley more space to operate.

Do NOT fade him!

— Rob (@RobFFSlayer) June 28, 2022

In the 2022 NFL Draft, the Giants selected Evan Neal who was one of the top tackles in this year's draft. They also signed Jon Feliciano from the Buffalo Bills. The Giants' offensive line should be improved in 2022 and it should lead to more open running lanes. Barkley was faced with some of the most tough-running in the NFL last season and there's good reason to believe that it'll get better.

Are You Buying?

7 Fantasy Football RBs going earlier in high/mid-stakes leagues (FFPC) vs ESPN leagues:

1. Saquon Barkley 16 v 31
2. Travis Etienne 26 v 57 👀
3. Breece Hall 36 v 48
4. James Cook 95 v 123
5. Rachaad White 104 v 169 👀
6. Melvin Gordon 104 v 122
7. Isaiah Spiller 119 v 165 👀

— Dwain McFarland (@dwainmcfarland) July 22, 2022

The "Sharks" of fantasy football clearly are and you really should be too. Barkley has always been an elite-level prospect and he's proven it at the NFL leady. While most fantasy managers have this idea that Barkley was only an elite fantasy asset during his rookie season, that isn't the case.

Saquon Barkley is the ONLY RB in the HISTORY of the NFL with 2,000+ rushing yards, 1,000+ receiving yards, & 140+ receptions through their first two seasons.

Literally the only one. Ever.

Fade him at your own risk.

— David J. Gautieri (@GuruFantasyWrld) June 25, 2022

And all of those rushing yards, receiving yards, and receptions in his first two seasons, it shouldn't come as any surprise that it all translated to a lot of fantasy points.

Stop acting like Saquon Barkley has disappointed us for years.

2018: 24.1 PPR/G (RB2)
2019: 18.8 PPR/G (RB7)
2020: Torn ACL in Week 2
2021: 10.8 PPR/G (RB31)

It's really only been one bad year, where he was coming back from the ACL.

Barkley is such an easy buy right now.

— Frank Ammirante (@FAmmiranteTFJ) June 23, 2022

Everything fantasy managers should be looking for in a league winner exists in Saquon Barkley. He's now two years removed from his torn ACL and has an upgraded offensive line and coaching staff. He's always had an elite role in the passing game and that shouldn't change this year with the Giants' group of pass-catchers having several question marks.

At this time, fantasy managers can draft Barkley as a backend RB1 or high-end RB2, but he has potential to be the RB1. That's the kind of league-winning upside every fantasy manager should be chasing.

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